Football Outsiders Hates The Chiefs

by 2011 NFL Predictions

Okay, not really.

There’s actually a few good reasons why I am referencing Football Outsiders today though and why I think that what they have to say is worth hearing. The first is because last year, using several factors*, they projected the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Guess what? They were spot on. The second reason is that I like their methods and areas of evaluation and rely on them quite a bit throughout the season in forming my own opinions about where the Chiefs stand at any given point.

*Among other things, these factors include strength of schedule, weather, trends, quarterbacks, draft history, injuries, offensive/defensive paces, various splits, coaching experience, on and on and then they run it all through 10,000 simulations.

What Football Outsiders predicts for the Chiefs in 2011 and related items just beyond the jump.

Thank you for sticking with me this far.

I’ll just launch right into the bad news. FO’s 2011 DVOA Projections do not see the Chiefs winning the AFC West this year nor do they project them even making the playoffs. To make matters worse, they project the Chiefs 25th overall, 22nd in offense, 23rd in defense, 20th in special teams, and to top it all off, they pull the hardest schedule in the NFL. A total of 6.2 wins are projected for our boys in red.

Now, all that said, in their annual football almanac, FO points out that the Chiefs wound up with the largest statistial variance of any team. In other words, the 2011 Chiefs are the hardest team to predict with any degree of certainty – they are the biggest statistical crapshoot if you will. FO staff members Mike Tanier and Vince Verhei both pick the Chiefs as the team most likely to beat their FO DVOA Projection. Verhei’s take is pretty entertaining actually.

So, all is not lost. Besides, I can’t remember where but I do recall once hearing some guy say “You play … to win … the game. You play . . . to win . . . the game. Hello!”

Here’s how Football Outsiders breaks down 2011′s playoff contenders (overall ranking listed before each team):

1. Pittsburgh
2. New England
3. Philadelpia
4. San Diego
5. New York Jets
6. Baltimore
7. Green Bay
8. New Orleans
9. Atlanta
11. Houston
13. Chicago
20. San Francisco

My take? I don’t have a better method of analysis than these guys so I am respecting what they say and banking heavily on the Chiefs variance factor to swing then in a more favorable direction.

Addict assignment? Read the articles, get a basic grasp of FO’s approach, and then give me your take.

Go Chiefs!!!

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@tm1946 "not much has carried over"? that's not even applicable. We have played 4 preseason games, none played well, but I don't believe that winning any of those games was a goal. we'll see once the season starts. I predict week 1 we'll be ugly, but win. There's gonna be a lot of ugly football w/ the lockout lasting so long. Why would you compare him to Luck? He hasn't played a single NFL game. Things change quickly. Ryan Leaf, Matt Leinhart, Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Akhili Smith, Tim Couch anyone? Also don't forget, 2 years ago Jake Locker was the consensus #1, but went back to school and fell quite a bit. You can't compare a guy who hasn't played in the league to a QB that just made the probowl. I also think cassel will be better than Peyton Manning this year ;)

@jpopejoy solid comment and the Chiefs were AFC West champs also, does not mean much this year since not much has carried over from last. Cassel is what he is and if given enough support gets the job done but no one is camparing him to Manning or Luck, are they?

@tm1946 why do people keep questioning Cassel...he did make the probowl last year. I'd say he's getting better.

@Double D@Celtks In the Manning article, you seemed happy the Colts are bad, what if they get lucky and get Luck. Talk about bad karma, we get Cassel and Palko and the Colts get Manning and Luck. Makes one consider jumping into the MO river.

@tm1946 Haha, yea even in my worst nightmares I don't see us in the "lucky" Luck race. The Bengals, Panthers, etc are too good at the race to the bottom dweller derby. I just hope the Broncos don't surprise me and get THAT bad.

@tm1946 @Celtks If the Chiefs go 2-14, one has to really wonder whether Bill Muir will be given another year to call plays. /sarcasm

@Celtks Wouldn't Cassel have to really drop for Pioli to drop him? Cassel is about all that is left from Pioli's arrival, dump him, doubt it. And the roster can be worked on until 2013 when the minimum salary cap kicks in. Now if the Chiefs lose big time, Andrew Luck could be that future QB you suggested. Now that would be worth talking about, just how bad would the Chiefs have to be to grab Luck? 2-14?

BTW, a quick reminder on Cassel's contract money: 2011 - 12.25 million 2012 - 5.25 million 2013 - 7.5 million 2014 - 9.0 million So expensive this year, cheap next year, then goes back up. Looks to me like 2012 will be his make or break year.

At least they commented on the Chiefs, not much respect in the outside media, mostly ignorred. But they are like weathermen, if right, genius, if wrong, oh, well there were outside factors (the wind changed). That said the 2011 version of the Chiefs has issues. Even the most ardent fan is not buying superbowl ticket. I look at this year as an opportunity lost more than a potentially bad season. Look at Pioli's moves, the Haley plan, any draft picks making moves to start, and injuries, not much "man are we lucky" to start the season.

I hope Matt steps up his game beyond last year, regardless of the wins/losses. If he does not - and Sunday may be a tip off - the Cassel era may end as soon as Pioli can get a replacement (easier said than done). I'm rooting for him, but concerned. He's a good guy. Most of the "analysts" who see the Chiefs heading for a fall back cite 3 reasons: 1. Tough schedule. 2. They think Matt will regress from last year. 3. The loss of Weis. My bet is Matt continues to be serviceable, but as the rest of the team continues to be improved, he will increasingly be seen as the limiter in a quarterback driven league. When Pioli and Haley see the team s a whole is ready for the next big step in class, expect to see a new QB in KC. His last year on his contract is 2014, I hope his play keeps him here until then..

I agree with your statement 100%. I do think they could do really well, if their young players keep playing well. This is also assuming the OL isn't as bad as it has looked in the preseason. IMO it wont look that bad during regular season. @Arowhead_Addict

I think they are right. The odds are long but the Chiefs are also a really interesting team. All the young talent is what is causing the problems. There is just no way to tell how the Chiefs will perform. If the young guys step up in a big way, the Chiefs could be way better than we think.

tm1946 183 pts

At least they commented on the Chiefs, not much respect in the outside media, mostly ignorred. But they are like weathermen, if right, genius, if wrong, oh, well there were outside factors (the wind changed).

That said the 2011 version of the Chiefs has issues. Even the most ardent fan is not buying superbowl ticket. I look at this year as an opportunity lost more than a potentially bad season. Look at Pioli's moves, the Haley plan, any draft picks making moves to start, and injuries, not much "man are we lucky" to start the season.

Celtks 40 pts

I hope Matt steps up his game beyond last year, regardless of the wins/losses. If he does not - and Sunday may be a tip off - the Cassel era may end as soon as Pioli can get a replacement (easier said than done). I'm rooting for him, but concerned. He's a good guy.

Most of the "analysts" who see the Chiefs heading for a fall back cite 3 reasons:

1. Tough schedule.

2. They think Matt will regress from last year.

3. The loss of Weis.

My bet is Matt continues to be serviceable, but as the rest of the team continues to be improved, he will increasingly be seen as the limiter in a quarterback driven league. When Pioli and Haley see the team s a whole is ready for the next big step in class, expect to see a new QB in KC. His last year on his contract is 2014, I hope his play keeps him here until then..

Celtks 40 pts

BTW, a quick reminder on Cassel's contract money:

2011 - 12.25 million

2012 - 5.25 million

2013 - 7.5 million

2014 - 9.0 million

So expensive this year, cheap next year, then goes back up. Looks to me like 2012 will be his make or break year.

tm1946 183 pts

Celtks Wouldn't Cassel have to really drop for Pioli to drop him? Cassel is about all that is left from Pioli's arrival, dump him, doubt it. And the roster can be worked on until 2013 when the minimum salary cap kicks in.

Now if the Chiefs lose big time, Andrew Luck could be that future QB you suggested. Now that would be worth talking about, just how bad would the Chiefs have to be to grab Luck? 2-14?

Double D 43 pts

tm1946 Celtks

If the Chiefs go 2-14, one has to really wonder whether Bill Muir will be given another year to call plays. /sarcasm

tm1946 183 pts

Double DCeltks In the Manning article, you seemed happy the Colts are bad, what if they get lucky and get Luck. Talk about bad karma, we get Cassel and Palko and the Colts get Manning and Luck. Makes one consider jumping into the MO river.

Celtks 40 pts

tm1946 Haha, yea even in my worst nightmares I don't see us in the "lucky" Luck race. The Bengals, Panthers, etc are too good at the race to the bottom dweller derby. I just hope the Broncos don't surprise me and get THAT bad.

jpopejoy 56 pts

tm1946 why do people keep questioning Cassel...he did make the probowl last year. I'd say he's getting better.

tm1946 183 pts

jpopejoy solid comment and the Chiefs were AFC West champs also, does not mean much this year since not much has carried over from last. Cassel is what he is and if given enough support gets the job done but no one is camparing him to Manning or Luck, are they?

jpopejoy 56 pts

tm1946 "not much has carried over"? that's not even applicable. We have played 4 preseason games, none played well, but I don't believe that winning any of those games was a goal.

we'll see once the season starts. I predict week 1 we'll be ugly, but win. There's gonna be a lot of ugly football w/ the lockout lasting so long.

Why would you compare him to Luck? He hasn't played a single NFL game. Things change quickly. Ryan Leaf, Matt Leinhart, Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Akhili Smith, Tim Couch anyone? Also don't forget, 2 years ago Jake Locker was the consensus #1, but went back to school and fell quite a bit. You can't compare a guy who hasn't played in the league to a QB that just made the probowl. I also think cassel will be better than Peyton Manning this year ;)

Arowhead_Addict 491 pts

I think they are right. The odds are long but the Chiefs are also a really interesting team. All the young talent is what is causing the problems. There is just no way to tell how the Chiefs will perform. If the young guys step up in a big way, the Chiefs could be way better than we think.

dbaty7 15 pts

I agree with your statement 100%. I do think they could do really well, if their young players keep playing well. This is also assuming the OL isn't as bad as it has looked in the preseason. IMO it wont look that bad during regular season. Arowhead_Addict