The Kansas City Chiefs Will Not And Should Not Bring In Many New Free Agents

by Chiefs

We all continue to sit around hoping that the lockout is going to end soon. As we cling to any bits of optimism we can find most people seem to think that they will come to an agreement sooner rather than later. That mindset has led to an increase in talk about what players the Chiefs should go after in free agency once the lockout lifts. I have done it myself (Aubrayo Franklin, I don’t care what Andrew says, he’s the man). However, that having been said, I’m here to tell you that you shouldn’t expect the Chiefs to bring in hardly any new free agents this year. More than that, I’m here to tell you that this is a good thing.

“But Lyle, aren’t you the one that told us that there is likely to be a raised salary floor that will force the Chiefs to have to spend more money?”

Yes, yes I am.

“Also, aren’t you the one that told us that Scott Pioli will have to win the battle of the GMs once the lockout lifts in order for the Chiefs to succeed this season?”

Yup, that was me as well.

I’ll explain how I can believe all three things to be true without being totally off my rocker after the jump.

First off, let me explain why I feel that the Chiefs will not and should not bring in many new faces this offseason (what little of one there may be). That last part about how little of an offseason they will have is actually the answer. The Chiefs had a special season last year. Coming into the season no one outside of Kansas City, and even most of those in Kansas City, thought the Chiefs would have a shot at winning the division. However, it was clear from that first Monday Night Football game that the Chiefs had a belief and an energy about them, a chip on their shoulder if you will. Was the talent level of their roster among the NFL’s elite? No, but they came together as a team to get the job done. This offseason there will be no OTAs at all. If a deal is not reached in the next week or so then training camp and possibly the preseason will be shortened. That means that with every day that passes there will be less and less time to get new players “in the know”. Therefore, if the Chiefs want to build off that “team energy” they can’t have a bunch of new players that not only don’t know the playbook but haven’t bonded with the rest of the guys.

I know there will be those of you out there that will laugh at the whole idea of trying to preserve the “team unity” at the expense of upgrading talent. However, I would argue that there aren’t enough elite talent FAs out there that we could sign that would make the disruption of the team worth it. Normally, the goal would be to find players that would fit into the current team that would also upgrade the talent. However, this year there just isn’t time to bring many new guys into the fold and have them adjust before games start. We already have a class of rookies that most feel will play right away that we have to get acclimated. If we have more than a couple new FAs that are going to play key roles there just won’t be time for everyone to get on the same page.

Okay, so what about the fact that the Chiefs will probably have to spend some money in order to meet the salary floor? Well, I think once the Chiefs sign their rookies and in house FAs like Tamba Hali, Brandon Carr, Shaun Smith, Leonard Pope, etc. they could easily meet the floor by signing one or two FAs. If I was Scott Pioli I would sign Franklin to play NT and Matt Light to play RT and that would be it. Period. To me NT and RT are the only positions where you can argue there is still a real need and I think you can argue that Richardson played well enough last season that even RT isn’t a gaping hole. Other than that, maybe they could sign a few undrafted free agents that they think could make the practice squad, but I’ve got news for you.

NO undrafted free agents are going to make the Chiefs opening day 53 man roster. ZERO.

With the team rushing to get ready they are going to want guys out there that know what they are doing. That is why I think Scott Pioli will prove his worth as a GM by signing one or two FAs like I mentioned, resigning a lot of our in house FAs, and getting our rookies signed as fast as possible so that they have a chance to contribute. Last year UFAs like Verran Tucker and Bobby Greenwood were able to prove their worth on special teams in order to earn roster spots because they had time in camp to prove themselves. This year that time won’t be there so the Chiefs will go with players that they know and that know the system.

I sat down and made up a depth chart with every player the Chiefs had on the roster last year plus the draft picks. If you include the active roster, practice squad, injured reserve, and the new draft class that is 80 players. The training camp roster limit (at least under the old CBA) was 80 players. So the Chiefs don’t have to look much outside in house players even to fill a training camp roster, let alone a 53 man roster.

“But Lyle, we still need more help at WR!”

Well including Jon Baldwin we have 11 players to consider for 5 or 6 spots. Dwayne Bowe and Baldwin should start. After that you have Dexter McCluster, Chris Chambers, Verran Tucker, Jerheme Urban, Kevin Curtis, Terrance Copper, Jeremy Horne, Quinten Lawrence, and Chandler Williams to choose from. McCluster is clearly a lock for the 53 man roster and I would say that due to his special teams play and promise he showed as an UFA last year that Tucker is a lock as well. So will anyone really think it’s the end of the world if Urban, Curtis, Copper, and Horne compete in camp for the 5th and 6th WR spots?

“Okay, but we could still use a couple more LBs!”

Well last year the Chiefs usually had 9 LBs on the 53 man roster. They have a staggering 17 LBs to choose from. In alphabetical order that is: Charlie Anderson, Eric Bakhtiari, Jovan Belcher, Justin Cole, Cory Greenwood, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Micah Johnson, Corey Mays, Cameron Sheffield, Mark Simoneau, Andy Studebaker, Mike Vrabel, Pierre Walters, and Demorrio Williams. I would argue that even without Vrabel I can field a pretty good 9 man LB core with Belcher, Greenwood, Hali, Houston, D. Johnson, M. Johnson, Sheffield, Studebaker, and Williams.

I could do this with more positions, but you get the idea. I think with the Chiefs difficult schedule their best chance is to make sure they are a tight nit team that are all on the same page. That would give them a clear advantage over teams that are trying to come together that have new coaches, schemes, or a lot of roster turn over.

So the Armchair Addict’s three step process to building a winning team this year is:

1. Resign most of our in house free agents.
2. Sign one or two key FAs to fill any glaring holes. Preferably, that would be Franklin and a RT.
3. Get our rookies signed ASAP so that they have a chance to play.

I think that given Pioli’s track record and the shortened offseason schedule that this plan is not only a good one, but a likely one.

Once again, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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[...] The Kansas City Chiefs Will Not And Should Not Bring In Many New Free Agents We all continue to sit around hoping that the lockout is going to end soon. As we cling to any bits of optimism we can find most people seem to think that they will come to an agreement sooner rather than later. That mindset has led to an increase in… [...]

jimfromkcj, Franklin wanted to leave Balt. because he was a reserve there and his former d-cord (Nolan) was the HC in SF and he knew he'd start there.  The 49ers used the franchise tag on Franklin last year and he held out of camp because he was upset they wouldn't give him a long term deal.  Speculation was that if they franchised him again he might have held out even longer.  Regardless, the fact that he is a NT that is good enough to even consider using the franchise tag on makes comparing him to Edwards laughable.  Edwards is a borderline starter/rotation player, Franklin is considered one of the better 3-4 NTs in the game.  Yes, he probably only has a couple good seasons left in him, but if that is our one real hole on defense and we need to spend money anyway to meet the salary floor it makes sense.

A safety isn't always the last line of defense. Eric Berry, for instance, often charges the line to make plays in the running game. Guys like Berry sometimes even make tackles in the backfield. So he could miss a few here and there and they won't always necessarily end in disaster. Consequently, a guy like Mike Brown can rack up 100 tackles simply because the defense is so bad he is always on the field. He could take a bad angle, not get a tackle or a missed tale and give up a touchdown. Tackle numbers are just a poor indication of how a player is performing. As for Newsome's reputation as a talent evaluator, well, that doesn't really have anything to do with whether or not Franklyn is a good player. Smart football people make stupid football decisions all the time. The Colts CUT Ryan Lilja and in my opinion, he was KC's best offensive lineman last year. I'm not saying Franklyn is or is not the right way to go. Quite frankly, I don't know enough about the player to make a call one way or the other. But I am trying to point out things aren't always black and white.

Well, you were right about one thing: I did laugh. "I know there will be those of you out there that will laugh at the whole idea of trying to preserve the “team unity” at the expense of upgrading talent."

Tackles don't really tell you how good a player is. Mike Brown had a ton of tackles playing safety for the Chiefs. He had more than Eric Berry had last year. Who was the better safety? Mike Brown had a bunch of tackles because Corey Mays had a bunch of missed tackles. You can sometimes tell a little bit about a player by tackle count but it is a poor measuring stick.

great post.. I agree almost wholeheartedly the only person I would add to your list of people to possibly go after is Steve Breaston.

jimfromkcj, I just spent like 10 minutes typing a response to your comment with multiple links and all and it didn't post for some reason.  I'll try and recap. I appreciate you reading and commenting, but I think you're wrong on several fronts.  First, if you've read my previous posts you'll see I've dug into the numbers for several of the league's best NTs and Franklins are up there with the best in the league.  If you click on my name on the right side column under AA staff my article titled "More KC Chiefs NT Talk" says about all I need to in terms of validating my man crush on Franklin and proving that I do lots of research into my posts.  I also did a post that described exactly how the Chiefs could sign Franklin to a contract and not be hurt long term when his play drops off in a few years, it actually has Franklin's name in the title. The two main points I would like to stress are that NT are evaluated by how they eat up blockers NOT by their tackles and sacks (see Casey Hampton) and around the league Franklin is considered one of the best at it.  Second, I love a good debate and will always take time to consider opposing view points.  You can however, rest assured that I've put the proper time and research into my posts before I take a stand in writing, regardless of if you agree with the conclusion I came to or not.  Thanks again for reading.

we must pay our own, from carr and flowers, to hali...pay our own, we have the talent already. fill some depth issues in FA, but I even think with guys off IR etc, we have enough in most positions

Good stuff, although you once again made the heinous mistake of disagreeing with me (how dare you?).  rapid-fire reactions! : 1) Aubrayo Franklin would likely be more expensive than anyone Pioli has yet brought in, would he not?  combined with Matt Light, that wouldn't exactly be sitting on his hands.  2) A bunch of new faces may not be necessary, but the Chiefs have to make sure they get their share of the talent that is available, or fall behind (at least as far as talent is concerned).  It's a zero-sum game.  Having said that, I actually am OK (though not thrilled) with our WRs and more than OK with our linebackers (provided Vrabel is shown the door).  3) Love that raised floor concept.  Not because I think the Chiefs will actually meet it (they didn't in '09), but because it gives me all kinds of ammo when Clunt won't even spend the minimum. 4) The lack of prep-time for free agents is a very valid point.  However, we've seen the results when the Chiefs pick familiarity over talent, and it isn't usually pretty.  At some point I think you just have to get talented, hardworking players and assume they'll fit.  After all, Chris Chambers was much better for us fresh off the street than he was when he'd had a whole training camp under his belt.  5) If nothing else, you've got to hope these rookies will be signed as soon as its allowed.  God knows we've got the $$.  If the Chiefs delay those signings to haggle better deals, well.......I'll be writing an article about it, lets put it that way.

Franklin would take some big money, combine that with signing Hali and the salary floor shouldn't be an issue.  My point is that bringing in FAs will only make sense this year if they are such a clear upgrade at their position that it is worth them not having the normal time to "get with the program".  That's why I think there will only be one or two key additions and then we'll go with what we know.  There are dozens of possible FAs out there that were it May might make sense for the Chiefs to look at, and dozens more when it comes to UFAs.  My point is that this season's timeline will change the game plan.  Therefore I think some of the FA names being thrown around these days won't end up being in play for the Chiefs.  If I had to guess, I'd say that come opening day (whenever that is) the Chiefs 53 man roster (if it is still 53) will only have one or two names on it that weren't either on the roster last year or a draft pick.

jimfromkcj,
Franklin wanted to leave Balt. because he was a reserve there and his former d-cord (Nolan) was the HC in SF and he knew he'd start there.  The 49ers used the franchise tag on Franklin last year and he held out of camp because he was upset they wouldn't give him a long term deal.  Speculation was that if they franchised him again he might have held out even longer.  Regardless, the fact that he is a NT that is good enough to even consider using the franchise tag on makes comparing him to Edwards laughable.  Edwards is a borderline starter/rotation player, Franklin is considered one of the better 3-4 NTs in the game.  Yes, he probably only has a couple good seasons left in him, but if that is our one real hole on defense and we need to spend money anyway to meet the salary floor it makes sense.

A safety isn't always the last line of defense. Eric Berry, for instance, often charges the line to make plays in the running game. Guys like Berry sometimes even make tackles in the backfield. So he could miss a few here and there and they won't always necessarily end in disaster.
Consequently, a guy like Mike Brown can rack up 100 tackles simply because the defense is so bad he is always on the field. He could take a bad angle, not get a tackle or a missed tale and give up a touchdown. Tackle numbers are just a poor indication of how a player is performing.
As for Newsome's reputation as a talent evaluator, well, that doesn't really have anything to do with whether or not Franklyn is a good player. Smart football people make stupid football decisions all the time. The Colts CUT Ryan Lilja and in my opinion, he was KC's best offensive lineman last year.
I'm not saying Franklyn is or is not the right way to go. Quite frankly, I don't know enough about the player to make a call one way or the other.
But I am trying to point out things aren't always black and white.

Well, you were right about one thing: I did laugh.
"I know there will be those of you out there that will laugh at the whole idea of trying to preserve the “team unity” at the expense of upgrading talent."

Tackles don't really tell you how good a player is. Mike Brown had a ton of tackles playing safety for the Chiefs. He had more than Eric Berry had last year. Who was the better safety?
Mike Brown had a bunch of tackles because Corey Mays had a bunch of missed tackles.
You can sometimes tell a little bit about a player by tackle count but it is a poor measuring stick.

jimfromkcj,
I just spent like 10 minutes typing a response to your comment with multiple links and all and it didn't post for some reason.  I'll try and recap.
I appreciate you reading and commenting, but I think you're wrong on several fronts.  First, if you've read my previous posts you'll see I've dug into the numbers for several of the league's best NTs and Franklins are up there with the best in the league.  If you click on my name on the right side column under AA staff my article titled "More KC Chiefs NT Talk" says about all I need to in terms of validating my man crush on Franklin and proving that I do lots of research into my posts.  I also did a post that described exactly how the Chiefs could sign Franklin to a contract and not be hurt long term when his play drops off in a few years, it actually has Franklin's name in the title.
The two main points I would like to stress are that NT are evaluated by how they eat up blockers NOT by their tackles and sacks (see Casey Hampton) and around the league Franklin is considered one of the best at it.  Second, I love a good debate and will always take time to consider opposing view points.  You can however, rest assured that I've put the proper time and research into my posts before I take a stand in writing, regardless of if you agree with the conclusion I came to or not.  Thanks again for reading.

Good stuff, although you once again made the heinous mistake of disagreeing with me (how dare you?). 
rapid-fire reactions! :
1) Aubrayo Franklin would likely be more expensive than anyone Pioli has yet brought in, would he not?  combined with Matt Light, that wouldn't exactly be sitting on his hands. 
2) A bunch of new faces may not be necessary, but the Chiefs have to make sure they get their share of the talent that is available, or fall behind (at least as far as talent is concerned).  It's a zero-sum game.  Having said that, I actually am OK (though not thrilled) with our WRs and more than OK with our linebackers (provided Vrabel is shown the door). 
3) Love that raised floor concept.  Not because I think the Chiefs will actually meet it (they didn't in '09), but because it gives me all kinds of ammo when Clunt won't even spend the minimum.
4) The lack of prep-time for free agents is a very valid point.  However, we've seen the results when the Chiefs pick familiarity over talent, and it isn't usually pretty.  At some point I think you just have to get talented, hardworking players and assume they'll fit.  After all, Chris Chambers was much better for us fresh off the street than he was when he'd had a whole training camp under his belt. 
5) If nothing else, you've got to hope these rookies will be signed as soon as its allowed.  God knows we've got the $$.  If the Chiefs delay those signings to haggle better deals, well.......I'll be writing an article about it, lets put it that way.

Well, you were right about one thing: I did laugh.

"I know there will be those of you out there that will laugh at the whole idea of trying to preserve the “team unity” at the expense of upgrading talent."

great post.. I agree almost wholeheartedly the only person I would add to your list of people to possibly go after is Steve Breaston.

Lyle, do you ever look up the stats that a player has put up before jumping on a bandwagon.? I looked Franklyn's stats and they were truly underwealming. He is a 6'1" 317 lb NT with 9 yrs of NFL experience and 30 years old. During those 9 years he has a grand total of 149 tackles and 4 sacks. That is not the kind of player I want to see hitting the KC Chief's jackpot. I doubt i would trade Big Ron for him even up.

jimfromkcj,

I just spent like 10 minutes typing a response to your comment with multiple links and all and it didn't post for some reason.  I'll try and recap.

I appreciate you reading and commenting, but I think you're wrong on several fronts.  First, if you've read my previous posts you'll see I've dug into the numbers for several of the league's best NTs and Franklins are up there with the best in the league.  If you click on my name on the right side column under AA staff my article titled "More KC Chiefs NT Talk" says about all I need to in terms of validating my man crush on Franklin and proving that I do lots of research into my posts.  I also did a post that described exactly how the Chiefs could sign Franklin to a contract and not be hurt long term when his play drops off in a few years, it actually has Franklin's name in the title.

The two main points I would like to stress are that NT are evaluated by how they eat up blockers NOT by their tackles and sacks (see Casey Hampton) and around the league Franklin is considered one of the best at it.  Second, I love a good debate and will always take time to consider opposing view points.  You can however, rest assured that I've put the proper time and research into my posts before I take a stand in writing, regardless of if you agree with the conclusion I came to or not.  Thanks again for reading.

Tackles don't really tell you how good a player is. Mike Brown had a ton of tackles playing safety for the Chiefs. He had more than Eric Berry had last year. Who was the better safety?

Mike Brown had a bunch of tackles because Corey Mays had a bunch of missed tackles.

You can sometimes tell a little bit about a player by tackle count but it is a poor measuring stick.

Patrick, Missed tackles and tackles are how I would rate a safety. As the last line of defence, a missed tackle can result in a touchdown and a tackle tells me that the safety had placed himself in a position to make that tackle. You can rationalize it any way you want to, and I will do the same. As for Franklyn, Ozzie Newsome has a reputation of one of the best judges of talent in the NFL, but he let Franklyn go. And the 49ers are contemplating letting him go now. Now if we thought as much of edwards as you seem to think of Franklyn, do you think if you were the Chiefs you would let him go? Everyone seems to think Powe is great and Pioli passed on Taylor, Don't you think the money it would take for Franklyn could be better spent?

A safety isn't always the last line of defense. Eric Berry, for instance, often charges the line to make plays in the running game. Guys like Berry sometimes even make tackles in the backfield. So he could miss a few here and there and they won't always necessarily end in disaster.

Consequently, a guy like Mike Brown can rack up 100 tackles simply because the defense is so bad he is always on the field. He could take a bad angle, not get a tackle or a missed tale and give up a touchdown. Tackle numbers are just a poor indication of how a player is performing.

As for Newsome's reputation as a talent evaluator, well, that doesn't really have anything to do with whether or not Franklyn is a good player. Smart football people make stupid football decisions all the time. The Colts CUT Ryan Lilja and in my opinion, he was KC's best offensive lineman last year.

I'm not saying Franklyn is or is not the right way to go. Quite frankly, I don't know enough about the player to make a call one way or the other.

But I am trying to point out things aren't always black and white.

jimfromkcj,

Franklin wanted to leave Balt. because he was a reserve there and his former d-cord (Nolan) was the HC in SF and he knew he'd start there.  The 49ers used the franchise tag on Franklin last year and he held out of camp because he was upset they wouldn't give him a long term deal.  Speculation was that if they franchised him again he might have held out even longer.  Regardless, the fact that he is a NT that is good enough to even consider using the franchise tag on makes comparing him to Edwards laughable.  Edwards is a borderline starter/rotation player, Franklin is considered one of the better 3-4 NTs in the game.  Yes, he probably only has a couple good seasons left in him, but if that is our one real hole on defense and we need to spend money anyway to meet the salary floor it makes sense.

we must pay our own, from carr and flowers, to hali...pay our own, we have the talent already. fill some depth issues in FA, but I even think with guys off IR etc, we have enough in most positions

Good stuff, although you once again made the heinous mistake of disagreeing with me (how dare you?). 

rapid-fire reactions! :

1) Aubrayo Franklin would likely be more expensive than anyone Pioli has yet brought in, would he not?  combined with Matt Light, that wouldn't exactly be sitting on his hands. 

2) A bunch of new faces may not be necessary, but the Chiefs have to make sure they get their share of the talent that is available, or fall behind (at least as far as talent is concerned).  It's a zero-sum game.  Having said that, I actually am OK (though not thrilled) with our WRs and more than OK with our linebackers (provided Vrabel is shown the door). 

3) Love that raised floor concept.  Not because I think the Chiefs will actually meet it (they didn't in '09), but because it gives me all kinds of ammo when Clunt won't even spend the minimum.

4) The lack of prep-time for free agents is a very valid point.  However, we've seen the results when the Chiefs pick familiarity over talent, and it isn't usually pretty.  At some point I think you just have to get talented, hardworking players and assume they'll fit.  After all, Chris Chambers was much better for us fresh off the street than he was when he'd had a whole training camp under his belt. 

5) If nothing else, you've got to hope these rookies will be signed as soon as its allowed.  God knows we've got the $$.  If the Chiefs delay those signings to haggle better deals, well.......I'll be writing an article about it, lets put it that way.

Franklin would take some big money, combine that with signing Hali and the salary floor shouldn't be an issue.  My point is that bringing in FAs will only make sense this year if they are such a clear upgrade at their position that it is worth them not having the normal time to "get with the program".  That's why I think there will only be one or two key additions and then we'll go with what we know.  There are dozens of possible FAs out there that were it May might make sense for the Chiefs to look at, and dozens more when it comes to UFAs.  My point is that this season's timeline will change the game plan.  Therefore I think some of the FA names being thrown around these days won't end up being in play for the Chiefs.  If I had to guess, I'd say that come opening day (whenever that is) the Chiefs 53 man roster (if it is still 53) will only have one or two names on it that weren't either on the roster last year or a draft pick.