Grading The Draft Picks

by Chiefs

The Chiefs new QB looks pretty good in red.

The 2011 NFL Draft is in the books and most KC fans agree the Chiefs did pretty well for themselves. I always find it interesting to see how so called “experts” grade out our team’s draft. I never put a whole lot of stock in it, for a couple of reasons. First, these “experts” are often wrong on what players are going to do well and which will flop, and second, they rarely know what our team really needs as well as those of us that watch (and re-watch) every snap of every game. Here are a few early grades I’ve seen:

Pete Prisco of CBS Sports: C-
Rob Rang of CBS Sports: C-
Mel Kiper of ESPN: C+
Kerry J. Byrne of SI.com: B+
Adam Caplan of Fox Sports: B+
Eric Frenz of Bleacher Report: B-
Walter of WalterFootball.com: A-

So as you can see, the Chiefs are scoring everywhere from a low C up to an A. So how do we go about evaluating this class in a fair and unbiased manner?

I came up with my very own grading scale. Check it out after the break.

So what I’ve done is assign 10 different possible points for each pick. Keep in mind that this system is designed to grade if the pick was a good pick for the Chiefs, not to rate how “good” that player is or will be. In other words, Ricky Stanzi may get a better grade then Jonathan Baldwin, but that doesn’t mean he’s a better player. The points break down as follows:

1 point if they have shown the skills to play at the NFL level
1 point if they have elite upside potential
1 point if they are known for good physical conditioning/strength
1 point if they have good leadership and work ethic
1 point if they are known for good character and no off the field issues
1 point if they have quality experience
1 point if they have good intelligence or football IQ
1 point if it is a position of need for the Chiefs
1 point if the player fits KC’s schemes
1 point if the player was a good value at the spot drafted

I also reserve the right to assign 1 bonus point if I see fit (hey it’s my system).

Now let’s get started.

Jonathan Baldwin: 7 out of 10
I gave Baldwin points in all the categories except leadership/work ethic, character, and value at draft slot. I am also assigning a bonus point because Baldwin is working out with Larry Fitzgerald (Haley’s prize pupil) and because WR was such a HUGE need that one point doesn’t seem like enough. Final score is 8 out of 10.

Grade: B

Rodney Hudson: 9 out of 10
I gave Hudson a point in every category except elite upside potential. I see Hudson more as a good NFL starting player as opposed to a regular pro bowler.

Grade: A

Justin Houston: 7 out of 10
I gave Houston points in everything except leadership/work ethic, character, and IQ/Football IQ. I am also giving Houston a bonus point because even if he does struggle to become an every down player who gives A+ effort (his number one knock), he can still be a huge impact for the Chiefs if he can just come in on clear passing downs and use his pass rushing skills opposite of Hali. Final score is 8 out of 10.

Grade: B

Allen Bailey: 7 out of 10
I gave Bailey points in everything except elite upside, football IQ, and position of need. Bailey instincts on the field have been questioned and with Dorsey, Jackson, Gilberry, and hopefully Smith. I don’t know how much we need Bailey. If we don’t bring Smith back then I would raise it a point. I’m also giving a bonus point because the guy killed an alligator with a shovel. Final score is 8 out of 10.

Grade: B

Jalil Brown: 8 out of 10
I gave Brown points in everything except elite upside and position of need. My only real complaint is that Brown’s physical size and abilities seem better suited on the outside as opposed to a nickel back covering small and agile slot WRs. He’s a great back up plan for the Brandons but I don’t know how much he’ll help outside of special teams right now.

Grade: B

Ricky Stanzi: 9 out of 10
The only point I didn’t give Stanzi was elite upside. I think worst case scenario he will be a great NFL back up. I’m giving this pick a bonus point because after QBs like Ponder, Dalton, and Kaepernick went much earlier the Chiefs were able to get their QB project with similar grades and upside in round 5. Final score is 10 out of 10.

Grade: A

Gabe Miller: 4 out of 10
I didn’t want to be this harsh, but I had to be fair. The only points I gave Miller were for physical conditioning, work ethic, character, and IQ/football IQ. I hope he proves me wrong, but Miller is by far my lowest rated draft pick.

Grade: F

Jerrell Powe: 7 out of 10
I love this pick, but I couldn’t give Powe points in elite upside, physical conditioning, or IQ. I am giving a bonus point because of the massive need at NT and because if any coach can fix a conditioning problem, it’s Haley. Final score is 8 out of 10.

Grade: B

Shane Bannon: 8 out of 10
I might be too kind, but I really like this pick. The only points I didn’t give Bannon were elite upside and quality experience. I’m also giving him a bonus point because I think the idea of an athletic 268 lb Ivy League fullback plowing a lane for Jamaal Charles is just too cool. Final score is 9 out of 10.

Grade: A

That gives me a total draft score of 72 out of 90. That would make my overall draft grade a B. I think that is pretty fair. There is the potential for this to be an amazing class but Baldwin, Houston, and Powe all have to overcome their question marks. If they do, this could be a VERY special draft class.

Do you think I graded fair? Do you have any major problems with the point system? I’d love to hear your feedback.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

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Mitch is going to have a blast announcing Shane Bannon's name on the raido. Welcome to KC rookies, Home of the loudest stadium in the NFL and BBQ :)

Radio* hate typing on phones

Good point system. If you would have stuck with it and not given bogus bonus points, the draft would have been graded a C-. With your 'fair' and 'unbiased' opinion you might as well give it an A+.

Thanks for reading and I appreciate your feedback. However, I disagree with your take on my "unbiased" opinion. There is a big difference between giving a draft class an A+ and a B. Second, I don't feel the bonus points were bogus (okay, maybe the point for Bailey for killing an alligator). Take Powe for example, without the bonus point his grade would have been a C. Now Powe may or may not ever become a good NFL player. However, I don't think his selection should be a C. When he is widely considered one of only three true NT prospects in the entire draft and a team that really needs a NT drafts him in the 6th round that deserves better then a C in my opinion. So the bonus points were less about me being a full blown homer and more about me trying to "tweak" the point system to better reflect the value of the pick.

Lyle, as always a good, fun post. I'm enjoying the different "experts" grades of our draft. You're right, they don't know as much about the Chiefs as we do. I love this draft because Pioli addressed and upgraded every need except ROT. Very difficult to do in one draft. The one area I was thinking about that no one has brought up is; how did we do in comparison to the rest of the AFC West? Looking at the Bronco's, Raider's and Charger's drafts, we improved more than any of them. With the addition of Baldwin and Hudson we will be able to be more competitive with Oakland and San Diego. Their strong front sevens took us out of our game. Now we have more beef with Hudson and they won't be able to cheat on D-Bowe, Baldwin will force them to play us straight up on D.

Lyle,first good job.Second,when reading about Hudson I was wondering how Will Shields would have graded out with your system?Third,do you think Gabe Miller could play inside linebacker?

I think you did a great job. I'd however, not make the total draft score an aggregate simple sum. There are additional factors in assessing total draft performance than just looking at each the individual pick that should be weighed in considering judgement. For instance, I think we should should look at our "chip stack" starting the draft, how many of our key needs we were able to fill with those chips, and then the quality of the "hole pluggers". For instance in this draft though we had more chips than the elite teams, we had far less than teams like the Broncos. How did we do relative to them despite the advantage they started with? In terms of success in addressing "must have" and "really need" shopping list roster positions, I think we did very well, and for the most part at excellent prices. Then we figure in the quality we got, which is what you did. I'm going to say start with your "B", add an "B+" for out shopping our division rivals on price, and an "A" for getting more total team needs filled. My total draft grade is therefore a barely A- in the immediate post draft guessing game. If the wild card picks wind up be huge winners, or a high percentage of the later round picks turn out to be consistent contributors, then we'll both have to happily upgrade. Baldwin and Houston bust like over-ripe melons, and sigh, we drop that to an oh well we tried "D". Here's hoping for these guys, and the Chiefs!

That really is a good way to look at the draft as a whole. My system was really about looking at each individual pick and seeing how good that pick was for what the Chiefs are trying to do.

Yes and the "great job" comment was well deserved, obviously well thought out, and well researched IMOP. Keep up the super work, and tell Kiper and the C graders to do their homework!

I found it very interesting that Walterfootball gave us an A this year. Chiefs fans have been accusing that guy of being biased against us for years, basically because he was critical of us when we deserved it. There were times I wanted to write him an apology letter. I'm glad the "Walter hates the Chiefs" boo-shit can finally be put to rest. I liked the point system. Fresh take. And I'll bet you agonized over the way the points broke down, too. I probably would've second-guessed myself for hours on that.....and then come up with something much worse. Like a point for nickname potential.

I respectfully disagree. I love Walter's sight and find it very interesting and entertaining. However, the guy is pretty high on himself and tends to give people good grades based on if they agree with him. I don't think he hates the Chiefs he just bashes teams that go against what he thinks and this year our draft lined up with what he thought we should do better. Remember, this is the same guy that said Pioli had lost him mind for drafting Eric Berry with the number 5 pick last year because he said drafting a safety top 5 never works and said they should take the tackle in Bulaga. I wrote a post about it at my former blog home, if you enjoy sarcasm it might be worth a read. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/3/29/1395765/berry-vs-bulaga-the-walterfootball As far as the point system goes, yes I spent entirely too much time on it and I'm still not quite happy with it. In my mind the first category "has shown skills needed to play at the NFL level" really should be weighted more. I almost went with a more complex 20 point system but it started to make my head hurt so I decided to keep it simple.

I think that versatility - i.e., the ability to contribute in multiple ways such as multiple positions, multiple schemes, offense/defense/special teams - ought to be a value point especially within the Chiefs system/philosophy.

I did include that in a way in the "fits KC system" point. Bailey, for example, may not be a perfect fit for any one position our defense, but since he can contribute in several different ones I still gave him the point.

Lyle, Interesting approach. I like it. Let's suppose, just for the sake of argument, that improving special teams was also a top area of need for the Chiefs - would that change your grades any and if so, howso?

That's a great point and probably should be included. However, that would make it an 11 point scale which just doesn't work as well for the whole grading scale angle. If I was to change any scores to make addition for ST need it would probably be to add a point to both Brown and Miller each of which I did not give a point for position of need and you can argue they do fill a need on ST.

I'll go you a step further and say that several of these guys have the potential make a significant impact on special teams. Jon Baldwin, his ability get his hand up 12 ft into the air means he could be effective at blocking long field goals. Why not? His size, speed and willingness to block means he can also give us some much needed help on return teams. Special teams upgrade. Allen Bailey, speed combined with solid tackling skills = Special teams upgrade Jalil Brown, cb speed + tackling skills = Special teams upgrade Gabe Miller, in addition to kick coverage potential, his burst off the edge means he too can be threat to block punts. Special teams upgrade Shane Bannon, thumper category, reminds me of a lot of T Rich in that respect. Special teams upgrade. I feel our haul in this area was exceptional.

I predicted we would snag Powe! yeah!

i really like the point system good job i agree with pretty much everything you said enjoyed reading

Bye Brody!

Mitch is going to have a blast announcing Shane Bannon's name on the raido. Welcome to KC rookies, Home of the loudest stadium in the NFL and BBQ :)

Radio* hate typing on phones

Good point system. If you would have stuck with it and not given bogus bonus points, the draft would have been graded a C-. With your 'fair' and 'unbiased' opinion you might as well give it an A+.

Thanks for reading and I appreciate your feedback. However, I disagree with your take on my "unbiased" opinion. There is a big difference between giving a draft class an A+ and a B. Second, I don't feel the bonus points were bogus (okay, maybe the point for Bailey for killing an alligator). Take Powe for example, without the bonus point his grade would have been a C. Now Powe may or may not ever become a good NFL player. However, I don't think his selection should be a C. When he is widely considered one of only three true NT prospects in the entire draft and a team that really needs a NT drafts him in the 6th round that deserves better then a C in my opinion. So the bonus points were less about me being a full blown homer and more about me trying to "tweak" the point system to better reflect the value of the pick.

Lyle, as always a good, fun post. I'm enjoying the different "experts" grades of our draft. You're right, they don't know as much about the Chiefs as we do. I love this draft because Pioli addressed and upgraded every need except ROT. Very difficult to do in one draft.

The one area I was thinking about that no one has brought up is; how did we do in comparison to the rest of the AFC West? Looking at the Bronco's, Raider's and Charger's drafts, we improved more than any of them. With the addition of Baldwin and Hudson we will be able to be more competitive with Oakland and San Diego. Their strong front sevens took us out of our game. Now we have more beef with Hudson and they won't be able to cheat on D-Bowe, Baldwin will force them to play us straight up on D.

Lyle,first good job.Second,when reading about Hudson I was wondering how Will Shields would have graded out with your system?Third,do you think Gabe Miller could play inside linebacker?

I think you did a great job. I'd however, not make the total draft score an aggregate simple sum. There are additional factors in assessing total draft performance than just looking at each the individual pick that should be weighed in considering judgement.

For instance, I think we should should look at our "chip stack" starting the draft, how many of our key needs we were able to fill with those chips, and then the quality of the "hole pluggers".

For instance in this draft though we had more chips than the elite teams, we had far less than teams like the Broncos. How did we do relative to them despite the advantage they started with?

In terms of success in addressing "must have" and "really need" shopping list roster positions, I think we did very well, and for the most part at excellent prices.

Then we figure in the quality we got, which is what you did. I'm going to say start with your "B", add an "B+" for out shopping our division rivals on price, and an "A" for getting more total team needs filled.

My total draft grade is therefore a barely A- in the immediate post draft guessing game. If the wild card picks wind up be huge winners, or a high percentage of the later round picks turn out to be consistent contributors, then we'll both have to happily upgrade.

Baldwin and Houston bust like over-ripe melons, and sigh, we drop that to an oh well we tried "D". Here's hoping for these guys, and the Chiefs!

That really is a good way to look at the draft as a whole. My system was really about looking at each individual pick and seeing how good that pick was for what the Chiefs are trying to do.

Yes and the "great job" comment was well deserved, obviously well thought out, and well researched IMOP. Keep up the super work, and tell Kiper and the C graders to do their homework!

I found it very interesting that Walterfootball gave us an A this year. Chiefs fans have been accusing that guy of being biased against us for years, basically because he was critical of us when we deserved it. There were times I wanted to write him an apology letter. I'm glad the "Walter hates the Chiefs" boo-shit can finally be put to rest.

I liked the point system. Fresh take. And I'll bet you agonized over the way the points broke down, too. I probably would've second-guessed myself for hours on that.....and then come up with something much worse. Like a point for nickname potential.

I respectfully disagree.

I love Walter's sight and find it very interesting and entertaining. However, the guy is pretty high on himself and tends to give people good grades based on if they agree with him. I don't think he hates the Chiefs he just bashes teams that go against what he thinks and this year our draft lined up with what he thought we should do better. Remember, this is the same guy that said Pioli had lost him mind for drafting Eric Berry with the number 5 pick last year because he said drafting a safety top 5 never works and said they should take the tackle in Bulaga.

I wrote a post about it at my former blog home, if you enjoy sarcasm it might be worth a read.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/3/29/1395765/berry-vs-bulaga-the-walterfootball

As far as the point system goes, yes I spent entirely too much time on it and I'm still not quite happy with it. In my mind the first category "has shown skills needed to play at the NFL level" really should be weighted more. I almost went with a more complex 20 point system but it started to make my head hurt so I decided to keep it simple.

I think that versatility - i.e., the ability to contribute in multiple ways such as multiple positions, multiple schemes, offense/defense/special teams - ought to be a value point especially within the Chiefs system/philosophy.

I did include that in a way in the "fits KC system" point. Bailey, for example, may not be a perfect fit for any one position our defense, but since he can contribute in several different ones I still gave him the point.

Lyle,

Interesting approach. I like it.

Let's suppose, just for the sake of argument, that improving special teams was also a top area of need for the Chiefs - would that change your grades any and if so, howso?

That's a great point and probably should be included. However, that would make it an 11 point scale which just doesn't work as well for the whole grading scale angle.

If I was to change any scores to make addition for ST need it would probably be to add a point to both Brown and Miller each of which I did not give a point for position of need and you can argue they do fill a need on ST.

I'll go you a step further and say that several of these guys have the potential make a significant impact on special teams.

Jon Baldwin, his ability get his hand up 12 ft into the air means he could be effective at blocking long field goals. Why not? His size, speed and willingness to block means he can also give us some much needed help on return teams. Special teams upgrade.

Allen Bailey, speed combined with solid tackling skills = Special teams upgrade

Jalil Brown, cb speed + tackling skills = Special teams upgrade

Gabe Miller, in addition to kick coverage potential, his burst off the edge means he too can be threat to block punts. Special teams upgrade

Shane Bannon, thumper category, reminds me of a lot of T Rich in that respect. Special teams upgrade.

I feel our haul in this area was exceptional.

Wes Bunting graded out the Chiefs at a B fwiw.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/AFC-Draft-Grades.html

I predicted we would snag Powe! yeah!

i really like the point system good job i agree with pretty much everything you said enjoyed reading

Bye Brody!