The value at #21 is almost certainly in the trenches.

You may be looking at a future Chief.

As of yesterday, Arrowhead Addict initiated its own site-wide Chiefs mock, where four of the know-it-alls on this site (including yours truly) get to dump all over each other and each make unique selections at all draft spots for the Kansas City Chiefs.  We began yesterday by taking a shot at the Chiefs’ first pick, the 21st overall in the first round.

Out of the four of us, three of us opted for beefing up the Chiefs in the trenches (Adam went with OT Gabe Carimi, Merlin chose OT Derek Sherrod, and I landed NT Phil Taylor).  Of course, given the chance to vote, you chose Taylor as well.  We’re clearly meant for each other, you and I.

Make that the first obvious hint of many that this is where the value lies at the latter part of the first round.  As the elite prospects get gobbled up at the top half of the round, it seems more and more likely that the value dropping down to the bottom half will be offensive and defensive line.

A great visual demonstration came out today from ProFootballWeekly.com, where they list each serious prospect by position and Draft value.  Check it out, it’s a clever little chart (complete with head scratchers like Jerrell Powe falling to the 7th round).  You’ll notice there, that at the “Round 1B” and “1C” positions that the Chiefs occupy, the talent is the thickest in the trenches.

Long story short: I’d emotionally adjust yourself for the Chiefs going big in round 1.

Some more on this, after the jump.

This is a year where such a selection can make sense. The Chiefs are not in a position where they are desperate for some player to fall, because many of these great prospects will still be on the board for the Chiefs to choose from.

It’s probably not going to be an offensive skill position. With quarterback and running back out of the question, the Chiefs desperately need a WR but the first round really only has two elite guys and a handful of folks on the second-round bubble like Johnny Baldwin and Torrey Smith.

It’s probably not a linebacker. As our very own Merlin has written, linebacker isn’t really a first-round value on this defense outside of a right-side sackmaster, which we already have in Tamba Hali.  We’re not in a desperate need for upgrade at either inside position, and the left-side utility ‘backer only really fits with Aldon Smith (who will be gone by #21) and Akeem Ayers (whose stock has fallen to the second round at this point).

It’s not going to be secondary. Despite the Chiefs’ attempts at a smokescreen, we can count this out.

Going offensive tackle gives us versatility along our offensive line. The Chiefs are reportedly happy with their tackles for another year, but if they do truly believe in Branden Albert, they can bookend him with another great prospect in Anthony Constanzo or Gabe Carimi, both players that could become potential All Pro right tackles.  Of course, in the likely event that the Chiefs don’t see a franchise left tackle in Brandon Albert, they could bring in Derek Sherrod or, again, Anthony Costanzo and shift Albert to guard or right tackle.

Going nose tackle will need to happen sooner than later. Phil Taylor is making all the noise right now, but Stephen Paea is also getting first round grades from a lot of people, although it remains to be seen how well either player fits Romeo Crennel’s defense (I’d say Taylor is a perfect fit).  But I don’t need to expend another sentence on the position to convince you.

Going defensive end continues the necessary rebuilding of this defense. This would be the most questionable move of the bunch.  I’m a fan of Glenn Dorsey (obv), and Tyson Jackson has made considerable strides.  Both are holding up and improving.  But neither has any passrush whatsoever… In Crennel’s defense, you need pressure from your ends, so if the Chiefs think there’s an end like Cam Jordan, Corey Liuget, or Muhammad Wilkerson that can put pressure on the quarterbacks, there will be no hesitation.  Either Dorsey or Jackson could be packaged in a deal.

And, of course, there’s always Mike Pouncey. I’m more lukewarm on him than most — I don’t think he’s close to being his brother.  He looks a little slow coming out of his stance, but I suppose that could always be worked on.  To me, he looks like second round value.  But he’d be a safe bet that could always shift over to guard if center doesn’t work out.

So these are all options the Chiefs could conceivably go.  They’re all justifiable, and to varying degrees they’d be good selections.  So if the Chiefs go with a big man in the first, don’t be surprised.

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Tags: Draft