Big Matt’s Chiefs Chat: In Pioli We Trust?

by Big Matt

"Hey Tyson, Matt Finucane, Arrowhead Addict. So how fat do you plan on getting next year?"

My initial intention was to give Pioli a grade like everyone else. However, I quickly realized any letter I assigned him would be completely arbitrary. As I’ve said, I’m inclined to give him more credit than Todd Haley for our turnaround. But that’s more a reflection of my feelings on Haley than Pioli. Haley may turn out to be a good coach, but a master architect he is most definitely not. If he were in charge his first order of business would probably be to extend Thom Jones’ contract.

People have been heaping praise on Scott Pioli from the second he got here.  He was immediately declared a personnel genius.  His drafting, which none of us knew anything about beforehand, was proclaimed a specialty.  His approval rating on Arrowheadpride has always been ridiculously high.  Hell, on this very site last week one of our commenters said Pioli “won 3 Super Bowls.” 

It’s hard for me to know which way to lean on this.  On a personal level, I don’t like Pioli.  The secrecy, the arrogance, The Patriot Way, it all rubs me wrong.  And yet here we are, back to respectability just 2 years after Herm and Carl (The Lie Guys) did their best to flush our reputation down the turlet.  Surely someone deserves credit for that.  If not Pioli, I’m having a hard time thinking of who that someone should be. 

more after the jump:

It’s hard to accurately evaluate a guy who keeps to the shadows.  Last year I assumed Pioli wasn’t giving interviews because he was embarrassed at how bad we were.  But he behaved exactly the same way this year, so it appears I was wrong about that.  In any case, its impossible for a fan to judge a GM who shrouds himself in secrecy.  Not after two years, anyway.  I can’t give Pioli a grade.  It would be meaningless.

What I can do is talk about his drafting.  This was the part of his game that was supposed to be the strongest, and also the part that leaves the least to the imagination.  We know who we picked, we know how they did.  It may be early, but that doesn’t mean we have to cross our arms and shut our eyes.  Contrary to what years of bad pick spin would have us believe, you don’t actually have to wait a decade to evaluate a draft class. 

We’ll start with 2009.  Simply put, that was a terrible, terrible draft by Pioli.  Yes, it looks to be a fairly weak class, but I can’t imagine any team came away from that draft with less talent than we did.  And I am most definitely NOT buying into the “he didn’t have time!” nonsense you occasionally hear these days.  Nobody (including him) was saying that until after it was apparent he’d screwed the pooch.  Now its that he couldn’t get his people in, didn’t have time to scout, everything was such a whirlwind!  Hogwash.  The guy was working for another NFL team preparing for the exact same draft before we hired him.  And really, how long does it take to figure out Tyson Jackson isn’t the answer?  Everyone besides Pioli knew that was a bad pick the second it was made.

And make no mistake, Tin Man was an awful pick.  Pioli’s attempt to act like everything is going according to plan with him is laughable.  Tin Man was picked because he looks like a 3-4 end, plain and simple.  That pick was every bit as embarrassing as Derrius Heyward-Bey.  And they actually came from a pretty similar place.  Pioli wanted a tall block-eater, Al Davis wanted a guy who runs fast.  Both got caught up in superficial attributes and paid dearly for it.

As for the rest of the picks, what is there to say?  Donnie Wash stinks, Quinten ”core” Lawrence couldn’t beat out Terry Copper and Alex Magee was traded for a fart in the face.  Succop is the valedictorian, and that’s just sad.  I still think the Cassel trade was a very good one, but in terms of picks made, I don’t see how you can give Pioli anything other than an F for 2009.  And lets not forget his “don’t go anywhere” statement after he picked Jackson or his “nobody was calling” line after the draft.  Those might be the two lamest soundbites in Chiefs history…..if you discount everything Herm Edwards ever said.

Of course, 2010 was a different story.  Eric Berry was a homerun and Tony Moeaki and Kendrick Lewis were steals.  Jon Asamoah should be a future building block.  Say what you will about the second round (and I’ll definitely say some things), this was a very good draft class.

As good as the hype made it out to be?  That’s another story.  After the draft a few experts praised our class.  Beast Nation* ran with it, acting like every pick was a pre-ordained slam-dunk (the McCluster hype in particular was out of control).  I’d read a headline like “praise for 2010 draft class keeps pouring in!” and it would be one quote from Mike Mayock.  The local draft coverage, particularly in the blogosphere, was hopelessly biased.  It still is.  Hardly surprising.

*Beast nation is my name for the legions of blind homers running rampant in Kansas City.  The people who refuse to listen to anything that doesn’t equate to “The Chiefs are awesome, everything they do is perfect.”  You know, the “Tank Tyler is a beast” crowd.  They really like the word beast.  Hence the name.

An honest look at the 2010 class does indeed reveal a ton of upside.  And not just upside, some of these guys are damn good right now.  Those who disliked the Berry pick have to either admit they were wrong or sacrifice future credibility.  Those who disliked the second round?  Take a bow, gang, because it looks like maybe you were right.

I was furious after the second round came to a close.  Those seemed like stupid, naive picks to me.  A nickel-back and a gimmick player?  With the holes we had?  And we’re supposed to give them both extra credit for being kick returners?  The whole thing reeked. 

I was worried McCluster’s impact would be limited, Arenas would amount to nothing more than a backup and our newly acquired wealth of kick returners would be a hollow reward.  Were any of those worries unfounded?  It’s obviously too early to give up on these guys, and in fact they both looked good at times.  But in terms of value, those picks clearly weren’t maximized. 

Conclusion?  I guess there isn’t one.  One bad class and one good one, both with possible caveats (or excuses).  We’ve been saying 2010 is make-or-break for Todd Haley, but in my eyes Pioli is definitely on trial too.  This draft will tip the scales one way or another.  I’m starting to come around on Pioli, and my guess is he’ll make some good picks.  But I just don’t know with this guy.  If he picks another kick returner or block eater I’m going to be very upset.

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Another point on Berry. Even when he improves, as I think he will, he will need to be judged against the persons drafted after him.

Very good post and overall correct that Pioli cannot yet be graded. Also correc that first draft was bad and second draft was good. I tend to think Pioli will be a success, because he was part of the a successful team in New England and he had a very good year here in terms of the results. One point on the draft. Big Matt said the following: "Those who disliked the Berry pick have to either admit they were wrong or sacrifice future credibility. Those who disliked the second round? Take a bow, gang, because it looks like maybe you were right." It is way too soon to hang people who did not like the Berry pick. He is a good player and should get better, but he was chasing after guys catching TD passes from game 1 through the playoff disaster and then topped it off by chasing after TG in the end zone in the Pro Bowl. As to the second round picks, McGluster got hurt and, before the injury, he won the San Diego game with his punt return, which set the stage for a great season and was the difference between a Division Title and also ran. Pretty good return for a second round pick. Now, let's see what they do in the next three years, then we can judge the draft comprehensively.

true that we can't judge them comprehensively after one year. But as I said, neither do you get anywhere refusing to evaluate rookie play. Dexter, a little guy, got wrecked by a high ankle sprain and Arenas lost his nickelback spot to McGraw. That was their rookie reality. They both have to improve significantly to justify the picks, and it isn't a foregone conclusion that they'll do so. I would respond to your "difference between division title and also ran" comment if I thought you actually believed that. One final thing regarding the Berry comments: I'd be interested to know what you really think about Berry, but instead I see you've gone with the usual KCO fence straddle. I suppose you'll reap the rewards for that in a few years when you can claim you were right no matter what happens with him. Sigh.

First off Big Matt interesting read and nice job. Double D I completely agree with you on 2009, although I wanted Curry a lot more than Raji I liked them both a lot. As for Pioli I generally think he has done a great job for a couple of reasons. 1) Regarding the Drafts: 2009, absolutely could have been a ton better, before we talk about Jackson as an idiotic pick yes he wasn't considered top 5 by most but he seemed to have a top 15 grade by almost everyone else. It's not like everyone saw him as a bum, Pioli took a risk here doesn't seem to be paying off. 2010 was good, 2nd round I was mad at the time too but some of the guys we were calling for aren't doing much better, Sergio Kindle? Terrance Cody? I'm pretty glad we passed on those guys. It's too early to call McCluster or Arenas bad picks, I still think McCluster can do well, but we need a solid #2 receiver after Bowe so McCluster can play the slot. 2) Weis and Crennel, whether Pioli gets all the credit here this was a huge impact for the team, Crennel especially. For me, the GM should be able to draft effectively, keep players happy and make the right decisions with coaches, attendance, etc don't think anyone would say the Chiefs have done a bad job here the past two years. 3) Players: I love the drafting captains and guys with the right attitude strategy, and I think it's a key reason for our run this past year. Also focusing on signing key guys (ex: Tamba) is one aspect that pays huge dividends down the road in attracting Free Agents and keeping our players. We all know King Carl's criticism in this area and nice to see a change of pace. Am I calling Pioli a genius? Absolutely not. But he came in and so far has down a better job than I believe most could have expected. We'll have to see how the next few years go but going back to that day we hired Pioli, would you really have signed anyone else?

I wanted the guy from Baltimore, who if I'm not mistaken flamed out in spectacular fashion. I've always loved the way they draft. And yeah, I'll admit it, I was very jealous of their second round at the time. Loved Kindle. And although I thought Cody would fail, I also thought it would've been a very interesting pick. Pioli was probably a pretty good hire, but the praise has been over-the-top (not yours). All three of your points have merit. Any disagreements I have with any of those would be minor and nitpicky.

I do not recall saying that FA WRs were the way to go. In last two drafts Lawrence was the only pick as a WR and how did that work out for you? We can only judge/evaluate Pioli based on what he has done. A very adequate job, remember when he was hired he was the hottest GM in the NFL. Heck, he even won Exec of year, although I guess the GM from GB was disqualified for some reason. By the by, has Pioli talked to one FA WR to fill in, do not know but neither do you. My beginning point was Pioli is ok, not great and his record shows him to be something less that the greatest thing since sliced bread. How it all turns out will be interesting.

I believe Pioli is capable of forming a championship level team.

Me too, and NICE AVATAR!

And belief is all it takes to win championships. I believe too. No, really.

Pessimism is, in brief, playing the sure game. You cannot lose at it; you may gain. It is the only view of life in which you can never be disappointed. Having reckoned what to do in the worst possible circumstances, when better arise, as they may, life becomes child's play.

When it comes to Pioli, maybe I just need to believe a little harder? Or just be a little harder in how I believe? ;)

I don't want to hear about you being hard

At least I'm not saying things like "in brief, playing . . ."

"Life becomes child's play" That sounds pretty awesome. Of course I would argue that people like DD and myself are realists, not pessimists. But I suppose thats up for debate too. I did say he had a good draft in 2010 though, and I also said I thought he'd make some good picks this year. So its not like I'm always expecting the worst here.

Spillman, with the re-sources of the Chiefs, payroll and scouts, a good HC like Haley (yes I think he could be good), 2 strong coordinators, and the Hunt family backing you up, you, that's right you, could for a championship level team. I would like to believe you would not limit yourself to NE, AZ, and MIA as the teams you look to for improvement (he ignors most other teams). This off season would you look at the two superbowl teams to see if any cast offs/free agents might fill a gap or two? I doubt he will. In two years could you have found help at WR other than off the streets guys? Bet you could.

put your money where your mouth is. What free agent wide recievers would you have found? Tell me how you know they would sign in KC

I just like the use of italics the past couple weeks. It's professional looking and really accentuates the part where you quote yourself. You Stay Classy Big Matt!

Which part where I quote myself? You mean the Beast Nation part? I like using italicized paragraphs like that to correspond with the * symbol. A trick I ganked from JoPo. I'd actually already read that article you linked. I rarely read fanposts at AP, but I knew what that was going to be and I felt like scoffing so I checked it out. The problem, of course, is that the author uses APs defensive line grades and acts like they're gospel. Those grades, if I'm not mistaken, are put together by one guy who is a massive Chiefs fan. They're extremely biased and, from my perspective, often very inaccurate. I mean surely you don't actually think Tin Man was "very productive" when on the field, do you? His pass rushing is indeed atrocious, and I think his 1 sack in 2 seasons is a fair reflection of that. If a defensive linemen can't rush the passer at all, his game is severely limited. It just so happens Tin Man is also bad against the run. He's slow, stiff, and apparently lazy. He also looked pretty stupid in that playoff game. I'm having a hard time finding any upside there. This was mainly a response to the above convo, which for some reason I can't click reply on.

Whether or not they are put together by a Chief's fan, you can still fail the test. The scoring is below: Position/Leverage Values Gap Filled 1 Double Teamed 2 Pancaked -2 Free Man -2 Total Position Maneuvering Screen Pass Defensed 3 Swim/Bull Success 2 Penetration Achieved 3 Shoved Off Line -2 Total Maneuvering Helping Others Turned RB towards tackler 1 Forced QB out of pocket 1 Created Gap for RB -2 Total Help Plays Pass Batted Down 2 Forced Fumble 4 Missed Tackle -2 Fumble Recovered 2 Sack 4 QB Pressure 2 Tackle For Loss 3 Tackle For No Gain 1 Total Plays Penalties Forced Opposition Penalty 2 Lesser Penalties -1 Greater Penalties (10+ yards) -2 First Down Given -3 Total Penalties Touchdown Defensive TD Created 5 Defensive TD Assisted 3 Touchdown Allowed -3 Total Touchdown I know that was a lot to post but I wanted to prove a point. The questions weren't biased toward any specific chiefs player. It wasn't like: Do you wear a Red uniform +1000 Do your uniforms have a arrowhead anywhere +500 Do you walk buy KC Wolf on your way to the locker room +7000 Tyson Jackson could be very good. It's too early to give up on him.

Tyson Jackson is going to be a BEAST ;)

I have seen that guy fail people too, so I know he is trying to be honest. But it just seems like he really wants jackson to succeed and thats coloring his perspective on that particular player. There are games I've watced Tin Man exclusively and what I see just hasn't lined up at all with his grades on AP. Of course I could be negatively biased too since I thought he was a bad pick from the start. But "very productive" is a serious stretch. His profootballfocus.com numbers certainly don't tell that tale. I suppose it is too early to give up entirely, but its never too early to evaluate his progress so far.

Do you wear an awesome Native American Chief headdress with red and gold feathers +10000

I think Pioli's strength in drafting players is also his biggest weakness. I think the whole "hard working, team first" players he drafts are part of the reason the team has bought in to Haley's hard nosed approach and is a big reason we turned things around relatively quickly. However, when you put that much importance on character you eliminate some real talented players. Could we have drafted a lot better talent? Yes, clearly we could have. However, if some of those players had work ethic or attitude problems could that have derailed some of the "team" progress we made? I don't know the answer, just pointing out that it is part of the equation.

You including Succop, Berry, and Lewis in your defense of Pioli? What were their "work ethic or attitude problems"? And just how bad would Jackson, Magee, Lawrence, et al in '09 without Haley's tough love? None of them are players anyway. Look you can justify Pioli's draft anyway you want but for a "genius" he is not so hot. For an average GM, he is adequate but not even good, at least on current results. But we can wait and see the vast improvement next year. Bowe played better, sometimes, and Dorsey, actually contributed over his other years but, if we wait for all draft picks to take 3+ years to develope, this rebuild will never end. By the by, Sanchez, NYJ, did he take 3 years to develope at QB for his team or is Jackson the exception to the first round rule?

I am tired of you trying to sell opinion as fact. Who are you to gauge Pioli's job? Why should we trust your barometer? He is highly regarded by his peers as being one of the best in the business. Average GM?? where do you get that from? Don't give me that Sanchez bullsh!t please. Jackson is a whipping boy just like Dorsey last year. Don't be so short sighted

What's wrong with judging him by a barometer of his own choosing? Pioli prides himself in being a personnel guru. His record in that area leaves plenty room for doubt and fully supports the conclusion that he is no better than average in that respect. Short-sighted is using the opinions of fellow country clubbing good-fellows-well-met as your criteria for concluding Pioli's any good at anything. The vast majority of NFl GM's really suck at their jobs, matter of fact only a handful field successful teams on a consistent basis - why should the concensus opinion of a bunch of losers be a meaningful measure of GM success?

What's wrong in my opinion is spewing constant venom without anything to support his argument. What in his record points to average or below? He's has 3 superbowl victories, multiple GM of the year awards, and the team he put on the field this year won 10 games. No matter what your job is your peers understand your job better than anyone else. I think it's humorous that you think you know more than NFL GM's about fielding an NFL team. Dangerously Delusional

Dangerously Delusional - Oooh, I think I like that! I personally was speaking strictly to Pioli's record of identifying talent and building rosters. That's what this post is all about after all. From a management perspective, the only thing about a GM's performance that really matters is putting butts in the seats. Besides, how much credit should Pioli actually get for winning 3 Superbowls? Last I checked, NE is still finding ways to field a pretty damn good team and win a lot of games in the process somehow without the help of any GM-of-the-Year accolades much less perceived expertise in finding players to put on the field. I mean right?

How do you italicize your words? I feel like it's a club I am being left out of. He deserves credit just like Ted Thompson does this year. Speaking of Ted. His draft are littered with misses just like Pioli, just like every other NFL GM. The draft is a gamble period. No team gets it right every round every year. Not even close.

"I feel like it’s a club I am being left out of." Glad to hear that. 8)

I will take your exclusion as a compliment.. somehow

Explaining how to do html effects within an html environment takes too much time and effort to explain. Maybe you can try this link as your starting point: http://www.tizag.com/htmlT/htmlitalic.php

thanks you're downright delightfull sometimes

Good point, Prime example is drafting Tyson Jackson instead of B.J. Raji. I'll be pissed about that one for as long as Raji is in the league.

You mean the BJ Raji that has less tackles in 2 years than Tyson Jackson? That BJ Raji?

Trust me if Raji was a Chief everyone would think he's a bust too

Looking at the total tackles of a NT is to not understand the position. A NT's main responsibilities are to take away gaps and collapse the pocket. If a NT ends up making a bunch of tackles, chances are he's not very effective at his job. Moreover, comparing tackles of a NT to 34 DE is apples and oranges.

DD I agree. Tackles, or sacks are a poor measure of total effectiveness. I don't think either Raji or Jackson are busts. I do think if Raji was a Chief he'd be viewed as a bust in the same way Jackson is. Big Matt's main argument for Jackson being a bust is his sack total. I think when Jackson was in the game he was good but he wasn't on the field enough. Jackson got hurt and that paved the way for Perv Smith to get more saps. Then Gilberry ate up a lot of his playing time when we were in the Nickel. I hate to post a link to another board but here's an interesting view on Jackson http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2011/1/26/1957106/who-is-tyson-jackson-and-what-can-we-expect-from-him

DD Does that mean Wilfork had a bad year with 57 tackles (20 more than Raji)?

The fact that Wilfork had so many tackles can be interpreted to mean that teams were not afraid to run at him. Make of that what you will. Raji was a big part of why the Packers ended up with a Championship this year.

Funniest quote of the day - "Last year I assumed Pioli wasn’t giving interviews because he was embarrassed at how bad we were."

Glad you liked that one. I really did think that though. I often assume the worst about NFL executives. They just always prove to be such gross people.

This will be piolis big chance to make some big moves in free agency to improve the team now. im talking starters not washed up has beens just wanting a check.the wide recievers market is loaded, any one of them would be an improvement to help out Bowe.this is a big year to really see where were at with that Brutal schedule.

The 64 billion dollar question is "will there be free agency" prior to the draft? If not, that kind of changes everything in terms how we prioritize and fill our roster needs doesn't it? Spotted any super sexy WR's in this year's draft class? A second rounder maybe???

Regarding the 2009 draft, I was pushing for either Aaron Curry and BJ Raji. All my critics insisted that Raji was way over-rated and that #3 was too high to draft Curry (he was drafted 4th overall by the Seahawks). You gotta love the draft.

I posted an article over 2 years ago that reviewed Pioli's history of success and failure with the draft prior to arriving in KC. Let's just say his supposed mastery in that area leaves a little to be desired. Worst of all, his 2nd round history is probably where he's been the weakest. Based on that record, I was none too happy to hear he would be getting two bites at the 2nd round apple in 2010. At this point, I'm leaning towards the belief that his 2010 picks have so far kept his 2nd round draft record intact. Here's the link in case anyone's interested in the regurgitating all the ugliness: http://arrowheadaddict.com/2009/01/29/scott-pioli-master-drafter/

You know I think I actually remember reading that article way back when. That list definitely doesn't spell "genius". Or even draft specialist, really. Some hits, some misses. A pretty spotty record, actually, particularly the last few years. Honestly, I don't think Chiefs fans ever got over Herm's constant "build through the draft" spiel. That phrase is permanently lodged in many fans' heads, to the detriment of every other aspect. We sign Pioli and all of the sudden its "He's a draft specialist! New England did it with the draft!" When actually New England owes at least as much to smart trades and free agency. Probably more. Of course nobody wants to hear that.

DD: I hear you. You and I were all over this early, trying to deflate the "Pioli is genius" meme. That was a nice article. It brings back memories. My contribution was to compare King Carl/Herm with Pioli/Belichick. The results did not justify faith in Pioli. http://arrowheadaddict.com/2009/10/20/merlins-magic-cherm-versus-piolichick-edition/

ROFLMAO! Merlin and DD trotting out their greatest hits in the middle of a Big Matt post. Proof of just how slow things are going to be for awhile. Sorry for starting all this Big Matt. :P