Chiefs DVOA Rankings: Week 14

uncle duke, I can acknowledge that it's difficult to maintain top tier status especially when you have a thin roster and injuries start to hit. That does not however explain away the downward direction of our special teams and defense. Our offense has succeeded largely as a result of an effective running game and occasional success in the passing game through Dwayne. Lately, however, both dimensions of our offense are showing signs of slacking off. In sum, the team's week-to-week progress is simply not happening anymore.

Thanks Connecticut, It's okay to have a faith in your team, and it's very good for a team to have faith in itself, as long as it does not lead to blindness.

That is both a fair and accurate statement DD.

Football Outsiders recommends, in the interest of saving time, adhering to the following format for all criticisms about its statistical conclusions: [team] is clearly ranked [too high/too low] because [reason unrelated to DVOA]. [subjective ranking system] is way better than this. [unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling]

I disagree with you that Todd is a lower tier coach, but I respect how you give him credit for this year. If you ask anyone in the NFL though, they will tell you in the NFL there are no easy games therefor no easy schedules. Maybe less difficult, but that is far different than easy

Nate, I think I was pretty clear on my feelings about the head coach and his status. I repeatedly said "if" the situation continues, perhaps something drastic needs to happen in that department. I in no way said there are grounds to fire Todd Haley immediately. What I want to see right now is improvement, both in play and in wins, but if (there's that word again) instead things go from bad to worse, then I think it is fair to suggest that major change ought to be a consideration.

Stats don't have an opinion. They're an equal opportunity evaluator. You should also take time to learn what DVOA stats are and what they are not, because you clearly do not know what they measure.

they also dont tellt he entire story

Stats are not important? Please tell me why then does every NFL team have statisticians paying so much attention to them?

will you please tell me where I said stats are unimportant? I said overrated, yes. I said it doesn't tell the entire story, yes. I never said it wasn't important. You are basing your entire argument based on stats, and that is why this is a terrible article.

Jish, "[I]f this team did have a huge melt down and los[t] all 3 of theyre next games" I would be extremely pissed.

"theyre just 1 maybe two solid off seasons away from being a serious threat in this league.. i mean just look at the young talent that floods this roster." I didn't initially agree with DD after reading this, but I'm starting to buy in to what he is saying. I have been hearing this quote above my entire lifetime as a Royals fan. At what point do we say that "THIS IS THE YEAR"?

the difference is the royals havent been to a playoff in 25 years. the chiefs went in '06

Why stop at the playoffs? One could just as easily say that the difference is the Royals have at least won a championship in the last 30 years.

I disagree with some of what Double D says but I will defend to the death his right to say it. I am glad you like AA and thanks for the compliment. Please try to understand that we try to staff people with varying opinions and writing styles in an attempt to bring you both sides of the coin. That is what AA is about. Writers meet fans and discuss their teams and their favorite sports. We debate, sure, but it isn't about trying to be right. It is about sharing our thoughts and opinions on the Chiefs.

You're right. If we go 10-6 and miss the playoffs, I will not be happy and I will not take excuses for such a failure. I don't care about what happened in the past, I care about the right now and I want this team to feel and play for right now. If you're not fully committed to winning right now, you won't. By enabling a culture of "we're better than we were before therefore we're successful," the chances are slim that you will ever win when it really matters because "better than before is good enough" owns your psyche. Wins, losses, DVOA stats, Superbowl appearances, all are, in the end, more of a reflection of a team mindset, than of talent.

Is this how you act to people you do know when they have an opinion that is different than yours? Where does all this anger come from? How about debating someone on the merits of their argument or at the very least, providing one yourself.

Must have *inadvertantly* stumbled into one of those sacred cow pastures . . . ;) Shame on me.

I think i made my point pretty clear, this article is terrible.

Can you define "up-most" for me please? My dictionary apparently does not contain the English language's "whole story."

Sounds to me like somebody is pretty happy with 8 wins. Maybe the team feels the same way you do?

So instead of debating him with actual facts you are going to resort to personally insulting him for having the guts to state his opinion, which he backed up with facts? Sorry man but he isn't the one that looks like an idiot.

I agree, even though Patrick in his own way called me an idiot, I still love this website and MOST of the articles on here, but damn man give some credit where credit is due. This is a very, very young team. Did you not expect inconsistencies?

If you're asking me if I accept inconsistencies, the answer is no. I'm not on board with excuses - especially not when we have shot at making the post-season. I think now is probably the worse possible time for excuses. It is a tone that sounds a lot like giving up - that 10 or less wins is probably okay.

No, I said you made yourself look like an idiot. That is something different. I have no idea if you are an idiot. I do not know you. I am glad you like AA but I strongly discourage personal attacks on our writers. No AA writer should be personally attacked for writing what they thing and no AA commenter should be attacked personally for stating their opinion. I regulate this stuff. My staff will tell you that when they, on very rare occasions, have stepped out of bounds in a discussion with a reader, that I let them know about it. I am doing the same thing here. Debate, don't hate.

then thats just ignorance of reality. Young guys in the NFL are going to have there ups and downs. when there are alot of young guys on a team, the team will have ups and downs. For the most part we have weathered the storm with an 8-5 record, have control of our own destiny, and locking up key talents along the way. You know what, I see what your saying. I agree, fire todd haley

I'm sorry Patrick, I got frustrated with the article, my opinion doesnt change but I wont "attack" him anymore.

expect, not accept. you just see what you want to.

Lyle, If Charles fails to produce, he should be benched. If Haley has peaked and is no longer achieving his very own stated goal of getting this team a little better every week, at what point do we conclude that winning big against really bad teams (see Arizona, see Seattle) and getting completely walloped by both good and bad teams (see Denver, see San Diego) is not good enough, is not really improvement? More importantly, what should be the consequence for such failure?

We went from consistantly BEING a bad team to consistantly BEATING bad teams. If you think our roster overhaul is complete and that Haley should be able to beat any team (even on the road) that's your right. I see a coach that has turned a young team with a lot of holes into a team that is competing for a division title. We've lost 5 games this year. All were road games, three were division rivals, the other two were Indy and Houston. Now the way we lost the Denver and SD games was horrible, but the fact that we lost road games in the division isn't that terrible. If we win out and finish 11-5, win the division, go undefeated at home, and win three road games with this young roster, coming off 10 wins in three years, Haley should be NFL coach of the year, period. I don't care if we were lucky, had an easy schedule, if the DVOA stats show we aren't as good as our record, etc. Wins in the NFL are hard to come by. I'd rather find ways to win with a flawed roster and poor DVOA standings then find ways to lose games while having an elite ranked offense and defense like the Chargers. To me that is a better sign of good coaching.

Lyle, My concern lies in the fact that we are failing to get better. When I initially watched this trend start to take shape, I thought to myself, maybe it's just injuries and lack of depth. However, now that basically everybody is back (I'll grant you that Cassel did not play last Sunday but I don't accept that explains away the beating we endured or the general trend) we are still sucking. What gives? If we win these final 3 games, turn this negative trend around, I will be more than happy to revisit this topic and acknowledge that Haley is getting it fixed. If the downward trend continues, with the result being costly losses, I also guarantee you that I will unhappily revisit this topic.

I would argue that the team I watched against Seattle and Arizona was a much better team then the team I watched play Cleveland and Buffalo earlier in the season. I think our offense prior to Cassel goin down was clearly getting better. I would agree that the defense has taken a hit. I believe our defense still has some serious holes that need addressed. I think Romeo came up with ways to stop people because he's a great DC, but as the year has gone by, team's have had a chance to see what he's doing and found new ways to attack the holes that we still have. Yes you can say they should apapt too if they are good coaches, but at some point there is only so much you can do if you don't have all the pieces in place.

I also don't buy the young team "hitting the wall" excuse. Green Bay, for years, has consistently maintained one of the youngest (more often than not, the youngest) squads in the NFL - a situation I might note that has not kept them out of the post-season.

Green Bay also hasn't had back to back losing seasons since 1990-1991. Their entire team doesn't have to learn how to win the big games because their young players are brought into a winning culture and are surrounded by veterans who have been there and done that. That is what the Chiefs are trying to create. This season is step one in the climb out of the NFL cellar. To hold them to the same standard as an annual NFL power in the second year of a total organization overhaul is absurd. You also didn't address the fact that a big reason that the DVOA standings are trending down is because they were much too high at the start of the year.

I completely disagree that they were ranked "too high" earlier in the season. I would argue instead that the Chiefs were a different team then, played with a different level of intensity and commitment . . . in short, that they doing it the right way and earning those loftier rankings.

Again, you might have an argument there for the defense (which I addressed above) and especially the special teams, but if you don't think the offense has improved at all as the season has gone on then I don't know what to say other then we will have to agree to disagree.

Lyle, I agree that the offense has improved and I attribute most of that improvement to the job the offensive line has been doing. At the same time, I see what looks to be some stagnation occurring with our offense. Bowe and the other receiving targets have disappeared over the last couple of games, we're not seeing much in the way of development from the rest of the receivers, Thomas Jones has not been very effective in recent weeks and Charles was completely shut down against the Chargers. I'm not suggesting our offense has completly tanked, I guess I'm just expressing concern that they might have had a nice little run against a couple of crappy teams and that hopeful little episode may be over.