For those of you who actually follow this stuff, (ahem… Randy…) here is the Accuscore outcome for the 49ers vs. Chiefs game. As you know Accuscore is a computer program which simulates the game 10,000 times based upon current stats.
Accuscore, has actually been pretty accurate going into weeks one and two. However, according to Accuscore, this week does not bode well for our beloved Chiefs.
AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the San Francisco 49ers winning 58% of simulations, and the Kansas City Chiefs 42% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The San Francisco 49ers commit fewer turnovers in 45% of simulations and they go on to win 81% when they take care of the ball. The Kansas City Chiefs wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Frank Gore is averaging 79 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (32% chance) then he helps his team win 83%. Jamaal Charles is averaging 54 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (25% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is KC +1 — Over/Under line is 36
The Chiefs stat line has been really skewed by Cassel’s poor statistics, Jamaal Charles’ lack of touches, etc. The 49ers look good. I think the only chance we have of winning this game is by letting Cassel open up more and giving the rock to Charles. Oh, and don’t forget the 12th man of Arrowhead. The computer has not factored that in the 12th man. What say ye?