My Chief Concerns: Berry Safe Predictions

by Chiefs

60 freaking million dollars!  That is a helluva lot of money.  They only thing worse than making all that money, is living up to the responsibilities and expectations that go along with it.  Can you imagine walking into training camp the day after you signed the largest contract for any safety ever?  Can you imagine what all his teammates were thinking?  Can you imagine all the wide receivers and other defensive backs trying to out play him on every practice snap?  Just to one up the “poor man”.

The last thing Eric Berry needs is more pressure; which is why I am saying to all of you, that we must not expect our new beloved safety to be anything other than an above average rookie in his first year.  The NFL has one hell of a learning curve, and not many rookies get out of the gate running full speed.

So what can we expect from Eric Berry in his rookie year? Only time will tell.  However, we can look to the past for some hints.  (I think you will see from the following stats that the bar is not that high).  Here is a list of current safeties (*save Sean Taylor) and their rookie stats:

More after the jump:

Ed Reed; Year 2002, 16 games, 85 Tackles, 1 Sack, 5 Interceptions

Kerry Rhodes; Year 2005, 16 Games, 85 Tackles, 1 Sack, 1 Interception

*Sean Taylor; Year 2004, 15 Games, 60 Tackles, 1 Sack, 4 Interceptions

Troy Palomalu; Year 2003, 16 Games, 38 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 0 Interceptions

Donte Whitner; Year 2006, 15 Games, 37 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 1 Interception

Adrian Wilson; Year 2001, 16 Games, 32 Tackles. 0.5 Sacks, 2 Interceptions

Brandon Meriweather; Year 2001, 32 Tackles, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions

Jarrad Page, Year 2006, 16 Games 30 tackles, 1 Sack, 3 Interceptions

Jon McGraw, Year 2002, 15 Games, 30 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 1 interception

Bob Sanders; Year 2004, 6 Games, 29 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 0 Interceptions

Antrel Rolle, Year 2005, 5 Games, 28 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 1 Interception

OJ Otogwe; Year 2005, 12 Games, 11 Tackles, 1 Sack, 1 Interceptions

Bernard Pollard, Year 2006, 16 Games, 10 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 0 interceptions

The abovementioned players played in a lot of games, some started all their games, and some did not.  As you can see, Ed Reed, Kerry Rhodes, and Sean Taylor had stellar rookie years (they started every game).  Troy Palomalu also had decent stats, but a good majority of starting safeties did very little in their rookie years.  So while looking at the above list it is hard not to get excited about Berry, who is arguably a better athlete coming out of college than those listed.  But we must temper this excitement.  I would not be shocked to see Berry shatter those rookie stats, especially since he will be plugged in as a starter right away, but, it is nice to know that Eric Berry needs to do little (i.e. have more than 38 tackles, 1-2 sacks and/or interceptions to have a solid rookie campaign.  Isn’t it?

* Sean Taylor was mentioned simply do to the high draft position comparisons with Berry.

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Good post, Jeremy. Like those stat comps. Definitely think Berry needs to have more than 38 tackles and 1-2 int/sacks to have a solid year though. If he's a starting strong safety, he should break 80 tackles, rookie or not. Especially on this defense. There are going to be plenty of tackles to go around the way teams are probably going to be able to run on us. And something tells me those running backs will be getting past the front seven plenty. Expectations are maybe a little high, but they should be pretty high. The hype on this kid is through the roof. It's not unfair to expect him to be one of the top rookies in the league.

Jeremy, Good write up, I love comparison stats. I gotta disagree with you though on saying an average rookie season will be acceptable. I'm going to set the bar pretty high on this guy simply because we passed over on some guys who I have to believe will immediately show themselves to be game-changing, impact players. What's wrong with saying that Berry needs to quickly prove he too is in that class? He should have ample opportunity to do so given the sad state of the defensive unit he is joining and presumbably will lead. Not only do I expect to see high # of tackles plus a few INTs but more importantly a good share of TFL's and S's. One of the key things that the 34 D is supposed to facilitate is big-time Safety play by big-time Safeties. Well we have a 34 D and now supposedly a big-time Safety so I say we better get full delivery for the goods that were ordered.

Good write-up Jeremy. And it's nice to know we have strong support for Chiefs nation here in So-Cal, I'm in Moreno Valley, and I see you are reppin Riverside...nice. I strolled into a Shell station the other day and the clerk saw me sportin my Chiefs cap and she stopped ringing customers, dug through her purse and pulled a pocket-book with the Chiefs Arrowhead on it and showed it to me. I was pumped. As I walked out I said "We are turnin it around this year", and in a store full of customers she replied "Hell yeah we are". All we are surrounded with in So-Cal are fake thug Raider fans, and bandwagon Charger fans who were no where to be found before the Chargers became successful. They are still rockin LT jerseys and all I do is laugh at their whackness. As for Berry, i thing he is just what this team was missing. A Skill position player with the potential to be ranked up there with the greatest safetys of all time. After he was drafted, Berry was asked what he will bring to the Chiefs, and the word that resonated with me was "LEADER". I know he has a lot hype and expectation to live up to, but I think he will handle it all just fine. This kid has the intangibles, as well as the athleticism to bring a new dimension to our defense, and help all of our young, high draft picks reach their potential as well. My prediction stat wise are 90 Tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 5 ints, and 4 sacks. With those numbers, I think worries of over paying him and making him the highest paid Safety ever will be a moot point.

JT! Mo Val!! Awesome! When you see arrowheads here in So Cal you know they are true true fans!

In my opinion, if there is any one that can handle the pressures of the NFL acclimation, salary, and peer acceptance, Berry would be that person. Just how he handles himself in what I have read and seen he has a solid head on his shoulders. He really appears to have been in the league 2-3 years confidence wise. I guess we won't know until we get into the thick of it and that confidence becomes rattled but his father and college coach groomed him really well to get to this point. I have high hopes for the rookie, but understand he is just that, a rookie.

Damn it Jeremy! Stop spiking my Kool-Aid with that dose of reality! I DON'T WANT IT! Seriously though, good write up. Berry should contribute right away. I think we could expect a season similar to Ed Reed's first. I'll take 80 tackles and 5 picks. Yes I will.

Ed Reeds stats would be awesome

Good post, Jeremy. Like those stat comps.

Definitely think Berry needs to have more than 38 tackles and 1-2 int/sacks to have a solid year though. If he's a starting strong safety, he should break 80 tackles, rookie or not. Especially on this defense. There are going to be plenty of tackles to go around the way teams are probably going to be able to run on us. And something tells me those running backs will be getting past the front seven plenty.

Expectations are maybe a little high, but they should be pretty high. The hype on this kid is through the roof. It's not unfair to expect him to be one of the top rookies in the league.

Jeremy,

Good write up, I love comparison stats. I gotta disagree with you though on saying an average rookie season will be acceptable. I'm going to set the bar pretty high on this guy simply because we passed over on some guys who I have to believe will immediately show themselves to be game-changing, impact players.

What's wrong with saying that Berry needs to quickly prove he too is in that class? He should have ample opportunity to do so given the sad state of the defensive unit he is joining and presumbably will lead.

Not only do I expect to see high # of tackles plus a few INTs but more importantly a good share of TFL's and S's. One of the key things that the 34 D is supposed to facilitate is big-time Safety play by big-time Safeties. Well we have a 34 D and now supposedly a big-time Safety so I say we better get full delivery for the goods that were ordered.

Good write-up Jeremy. And it's nice to know we have strong support for Chiefs nation here in So-Cal, I'm in Moreno Valley, and I see you are reppin Riverside...nice. I strolled into a Shell station the other day and the clerk saw me sportin my Chiefs cap and she stopped ringing customers, dug through her purse and pulled a pocket-book with the Chiefs Arrowhead on it and showed it to me. I was pumped. As I walked out I said "We are turnin it around this year", and in a store full of customers she replied "Hell yeah we are". All we are surrounded with in So-Cal are fake thug Raider fans, and bandwagon Charger fans who were no where to be found before the Chargers became successful. They are still rockin LT jerseys and all I do is laugh at their whackness. As for Berry, i thing he is just what this team was missing. A Skill position player with the potential to be ranked up there with the greatest safetys of all time. After he was drafted, Berry was asked what he will bring to the Chiefs, and the word that resonated with me was "LEADER". I know he has a lot hype and expectation to live up to, but I think he will handle it all just fine. This kid has the intangibles, as well as the athleticism to bring a new dimension to our defense, and help all of our young, high draft picks reach their potential as well. My prediction stat wise are 90 Tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 5 ints, and 4 sacks. With those numbers, I think worries of over paying him and making him the highest paid Safety ever will be a moot point.

JT! Mo Val!! Awesome!

When you see arrowheads here in So Cal you know they are true true fans!

In my opinion, if there is any one that can handle the pressures of the NFL acclimation, salary, and peer acceptance, Berry would be that person. Just how he handles himself in what I have read and seen he has a solid head on his shoulders. He really appears to have been in the league 2-3 years confidence wise. I guess we won't know until we get into the thick of it and that confidence becomes rattled but his father and college coach groomed him really well to get to this point. I have high hopes for the rookie, but understand he is just that, a rookie.

Damn it Jeremy! Stop spiking my Kool-Aid with that dose of reality! I DON'T WANT IT!

Seriously though, good write up.

Berry should contribute right away. I think we could expect a season similar to Ed Reed's first. I'll take 80 tackles and 5 picks.

Yes I will.

Ed Reeds stats would be awesome