While writing my article about Herm Edwards predicting the Kansas City Chiefs would be a surprise team in 2010, I got to thinking.
If the Chiefs have improved this season and I think most of us would agree they have, how many wins will the improvements bring the team?
Last year, the Chiefs big additions were Matt Cassel, Mike Vrable, Tyson Jackson and head coach Todd Haley. Going in to week 9 of the season, these additions had not netted the Chiefs any extra victories. Coming off a 2-14 season, the Chiefs had at that point, broken even on the previous seasons win total.
Doing the math, the additions of Vrabel, Cassel, Haley and Jackson put the Chiefs at even.
Then something changed. The Chiefs did much better in the 2nd half of the season, winning 3 of their last 8 games. They were also more competitive, losing 3 games in the final stretch by 7 points or less. That is 3 wins and 3 near wins out of 8 games. The Chiefs were only blown out twice in their final 8 games. They were blown out (loss of 10 points or more) 4 times in their first 8 games.
The change happened during the Bye Week when Larry Johnson got the boot, Jamaal Charles was promoted and Chris Chambers was signed.
Following these changes the Chiefs were more competitive (when they weren’t shooting themselves in the foot (Dener, San Diego) and they won 3 more games.
Charles + Chambers - LJ = + 3 Wins.
The more dynamic offense didn’t improve the defense but it did make the Chiefs better.
Obviously, this is all guess work but I thought it might be fun to engage in a little Chiefs math. The Chiefs have made a lot of significant changes this year but how many wins are those changes worth?
I am going to give it a try and then, in the comments, you have a go.
My math is after the jump.
Full season of Jamaal Charles: + .5 wins
Thomas Jones: + .5 wins
Full Season of Chambers/Bowe: .25 wins
Ryan Lilja: + .25 wins
Casey Weigmann: + .25 wins
Dexter McCluster: .25 wins
Eric Berry: + .5 wins
Javier Arenas: + .25 wins
Crennel/Weis: + 1 wins
More favorable schedule: + .5
Rest of the rookie class/infusion of talent/youth/speed: + .25 wins
Do the math: + 4.75
That means by my math, the Chiefs new additions should give them a 8.75 or 8 or 9 win season.
I think this is very possible.
Now it is your turn. You can do this however you want. If you think Weiss alone is +3 wins, go for it. If you think Romeo sucks and is going to cost us a game, take 1 away. This is for fun so evaluate the team and add or subtract wins based you your own opinion.
What is your math?