Walter Football has definitively put the proverbial fork in the idea that the Kansas City Chiefs will go with Eric Berry. I have not seen any argument this cohesive against the Chiefs taking Berry with the #5 overall. The discussion even focuses specifically on the Chiefs.
It is a phenomenal read, and may even change your mind. This is the must read of the offseason.
Here’s a couple nuggets of it, but again, you must read the whole thing if you are even remotely interested in the Chiefs going with Berry. Wow:
No team that drafted a safety in the top 15 since 1991 has won a Super Bowl with that player on its roster. And as you can see, teams that spent top-15 picks on safeties were 242-284 (.460) with that prospect on the roster.
Furthermore, if you exclude the records of Roy Williams and Patrick Bates, who didn’t contribute much to their team’s success (Williams struggled when the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 – thus his bloated record), teams that used top-15 picks on safeties were 160-219 (.422) with that prospect on the roster. And here I thought top-15 picks were supposed to help each team improve.
Let’s say Berry is the next Reed. How has Reed done for the Ravens? Well, since he was drafted in 2002, Baltimore is 70-58, which is a winning percentage of 54.7 – equating to something less than a 9-7 average (9-7 is 56.3 percent).
It’s worth noting that Reed’s record with the Ravens before they added Joe Flacco (i.e. a franchise quarterback) was 50-46 (.521).
In other words, if the Chiefs draft Berry, and Berry actually becomes the Hall of Fame player he’s expected to be (which is definitely not a guarantee; see those busts I’ve mentioned), Kansas City will average anywhere between eight or nine wins with him on the roster.