The Odds of Suh
Nebraska’s DT Ndamukong Suh is virtually the best player in this year’s draft by consensus. And while I don’t dispute that particular argument, I do think it’s up for debate whether that translates to him being taken off the board by the time the Chiefs #5 rolls around.
Suh is more of a clogger than he is a penetrator. He has racked up a ton of sacks this past year because college guys can’t handle DTs that have the caliber to be elite in the NFL. That’s one of the reasons why Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy, who’s more of a penetrator, can still prove to be incredibly stout against the run. I imagine McCoy will still be okay against the run, and Suh will be a decent penetrator, but that’s not what either of these guys will be making the majority of their money doing. McCoy gets up the field. Suh stops you in your tracks. That’s what these players do best.
So how likely is it that each team will be looking for Suh’s considerable talents in the Top 4 before the Kansas City Chiefs’ #5 selection? Pretty likely, but by no means is it a sure thing.
I’d put the chances at 10%, not 0%. Meet me after the jump to find out why.
The #1 overall selection: the St. Louis Rams.
The St. Louis Rams are in complete rebuild mode at this point, to the extent that I think it would simply be best to trade even Stephen Jackson just to load up on picks. Start over. The Bulger experiment has failed.
Needless to say, the right pick here and the smart pick here is quarterback. The Rams may opt for Suh, but they’ve already tied big money into DE Chris Long and DT Adam Carriker (who plays the exact same role as Suh would).
Odds Suh goes here: 10%.
The #2 overall selection: the Detroit Lions.
The Detroit Lions look more and more ready to go with Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung to load up their protection for the best QB prospect they’ve ever had in Matt Stafford. As well they should.
The GM has essentially chased down a couple big names for Gunther Cunningham’s defense anyway, tying up big money in DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and (especially) DT Corey Williams, who, you guessed it, plays the exact same role as Suh would. This pick is probably offensive line.
Odds Suh goes here: 20%.
The #3 overall selection: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This is obviously where things get tricky. But I don’t think it’s out of the question that the Bucs opt instead for McCoy. The Bucs run a cover 2, which is far more reliant on a penetrating defensive line. The likelihood that McCoy, who’s been just as productive as Suh, for longer than Suh has, and has zero injury history (whereas Suh has suffered multiple knee injuries), and is far more of a fit for the Cover 2 defensive line, I’d actually grade this out as a little bit better than a coin flip.
Odds Suh goes here: 60%.
The #4 overall selection: the Washington Redskins.
The Redskins don’t care for DT this early in the Draft. Shanahan has likely zeroed in on Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen, and the franchise tied up DT Albert Haynesworth in a historically expensive contract. Even during an uncapped year, Top 4 money would be too much more to spend at the position, even for a team in transition.
Odds Suh goes here: 0%.
The #5 overall selection: the Kansas City Chiefs.
And that brings us to KC. What use might the Chiefs have for Suh? Well that all depends on how much credence you can lend to the rumors, ever since Pioli changed KC’s defense to the 3-4, that he’s had Dorsey on the trading block.
It would be no surprise to me, if you check out the link, if Pioli didn’t immediately pick up the best Dorsey trade offer on the table if Suh managed to fall this far. Suh is a far better fit for Dorsey or McCoy for this defense. Dorsey and McCoy are similar penetrators, whereas the Chiefs’ 3-4 asks the DEs to man their position and occupy blockers. Which, of course, is Ndamukong does as well as anybody.
Odds Suh goes here: 10%
No, he is not a nose tackle, but he would be a great 3-4 DE. Or the Chiefs might simply keep him and Dorsey and switch to a 4-3 defense to field their talent:
RDE: Hali
LDT: Dorsey
RDT: Suh
LDE: Jackson
Of course, I consider the far more likely action should Suh fall would be for Pioli to stay with the 3-4 and break his back trying to pick up Cody in either the 2nd or the bottom of the 1st:
RDE: Suh
NT: Cody
LDE: Jackson
What do you think, Addicts? What percentages would you give each team?