Merlin’s Magic: Offensive Line Changes, Early Edition

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With all the offensive line activity going on with the Chiefs recently, shortly I will probably have to change the Chiefs’ needs on Drafttek.com. Drafttek will run revised simulations during the week based on those changes. Already, a revised sim was run after the signing of Thomas Jones. For that signing. I essentially removed the running back need, changing it to a priority code of P9. The other signings, Urban, Smith and even Wiegmann did not rate high enough to me to adjust the needs. The news that Lilja and Fraley are slated to visit KC changes things.

Since it is likely that one of those players will sign with us, I have to be prepared to adjust the needs once again. I have been debating what to do, and I am on the fence. So Addicts, I am going to toss it out for opinions. It’s not a vote, it’s forming an opinion and making your case. I am very open to a well-reasoned argument.

Let’s go through the needs as I have them, I’ll talk about my general thought process. Then, I would love to read in the comments what people think and more importantly, why.

As it stands now. I have two needs slated on the offensive line. I went thought this is some detail in a previous article. If you are curious, you can read the whole thing here. To summarize, the needs are for one lineman (an OT, OG or C) and a second need of a OG. Both needs have the highest code (P3) assigned to any Chief need.

Here is what I am thinking so far. Wiegmann does not remove the need for a young center. We could take a center as high as 2A and Wiegmann can groom him. So, the center need hasn’t changed. If Lilja or Fraley signs, that should alter the guard need, but how much? Waters is old, so we could use a young lineman to work into his spot.

Now, it could be argued that signing Lilja or Fraley would remove the OT need from the equation. However, I don’t agree. We could still draft and start a LT, moving Albert to LG and Waters to center. Wiegmann could be here to help Waters learn the center position and back him up.

Signing Fraley over Lilja gives us even more flexibility. Fraley could play center or guard. He could start at guard, battle with Wiegmann to start at center or back up the three interior line positions.

Even if we sign Lilja or Fraley I still want to keep a single high priority need for the offensive line. The line has enough age on it that we need a high quality rookie to work in. Given our flexibility, the OT/OG/C pairing resulting in a single selection among those positions seems to be the best course of action. The question is, what to do with the second guard need. Currently, it is rated as a P3. That should change. I see two possible options. Option one is to change that to a P5. Option two is to eliminate the second guard need entirely. Let’s go through the practical effects of each change.

The best way to understand how the simulation works is to group the needs by code. That grouping looks like this:

P3: OT/OG/C, NT, ILB, SS

P4: WRS, TE

P6: OLB, FS, CB, WRF/WRP (paired with the WRS need, so only one WR will be taken)

How does this play out? The draft sim will try to fill the P3 needs first (taking the highest ranking player among those positions), then move on to the P4 needs. In round five, something interesting happens. All the P6 needs are elevated to a P4 code. When we get to round five, baring trades, we will have made five selections. So, five of these positions are eliminated, since they have already been filled. What positions? Well, we can’t be sure, but probably at least three of the P3 needs.

The question is, do we need a second offensive lineman (a guard in particular) or are the OLB, FS, CB needs more important? Keep in mind that we have three picks in round five and no more picks after that, baring the addition of a compensatory pick. So, what would you like to see, a second offensive lineman in round five possibly sacrificing some competition at FS or CB or OLB? Without the second guard need, we have nine needs and eight picks. So, I am leaning slightly to making the second guard need a P6 and letting the better athlete get picked instead if reaching more to fill another position. but I am not sold either way.

This is your turn Addicts. I am open to persuasion. What do you think and why? Make your case!

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dubldug

By the way Merlin, are you sticking with the Bama LB as seen on Drafttek?

merlin

dubldug:

I still like McClain a lot, but there is a new Chiefs pick in the next sim.

The Chiefs lack talent, exemplified by the teams no-show in the pro bowl. At this high pick and the need for instant gratification, yes i am tired of (hopefully) developing talent for 30 million dollars, and the teams need for speedy playmakers, I think we take a guy who can help NOW. Who that might be is the question. Will it be Haden,Berry, or McClain? Or someone else that the brain trust will surprise with?

tpkccfan

i think the biggest need the chiefs should fill is at SS. first off we see antonio gates, brandon marshall, deshawn jackson, zach miller, ect ect ect TWICE A YEAR mind you half the teams in the leauge last year recievers/tight ends had career days on us. secondly, the signs show that the chiefs are going to go defence in the draft. in free agentsy they are signing players based on the impact they can make right away and not years from now hints they can show the players that they pick up in the draft in the later rounds how to play there posistion causing natral compition and leadersip battles which means the strongest player wins out and thats how u build a winner. Now lets look at history and this years top 4 teams.
super bowl winners safetys minus the 08 giants
- 10 saints - d.sharper
- 09 steelers - t.polumalo
- 07 colts - b.sanders
- 06 steelers - t.polumalo
- 05 pats - R.harrison
- 04 pats - R.harrison
- 03 bucs - j.lynch
- 02 pats - L. Milloy
- 01 ravens - e.reed
I REST MY CASE DRAFT ERIC BERRY !!!!!!!!!!!

Redeyes

The Chiefs need help all over. I totally agree that you build the lines up first, but the benifit of having so many holes is that we can take BPA and improve our team. We can take a second or third round offensive lineman and still improve our line.
I get it. Many of us want the awesome line we had a few years ago back, and right now. Adding a left tackle and moving Albert and Waters looks so good on paper. Deep down we know Waters isn't going to step in and be a pro- bowl center, and Albert still has a chance to be a very good tackle. The line was improving toward the end of the season and should be solid with one more FA and a center/guard in the 2nd or third round. If a tackle is the bpa at any other time I grab him, but at this point that is a position of want.
Our single most needed position is nt. I see us using a 2nd or third on Cody or Thomas and hopefully a 5th on Troup. With two young prospects we should be ok soon and very good in a couple of years. Beyond that, a center that can play guard, a linebacker, a safety, and a WR. In that order.
From my list of key needs, none of them are generally picked at number 5. That makes many of us want to grab a left tackle, but while another tackle would be great, we probably have a good one. None of us were asking for a LT last year and players tend to slump sometimes in the second year. Berry will likely be there at five, and if we stay at five we should take him. He fits an immediate need, and has a chance to be worth the top 5 salary. If we could trade down and still get McClain or another position of need, I think that would be even better. If we have to take a LT to avoid reaching, I'm on board.
I guess the short of it is that we can only afford one of our first 4 picks to be o-line. 2 starting rookies would not be likely, and we need starters on defense. I love Pouncy at 2A should he fall, but I would not love our first 2 picks on OL with so many potential defensive starters on the board.

Ehud

We need help on the O-line. Like it or not at least one O-lineman must be taken in this draft. The problem with this draft is that quality-wise it is very top-heavy. I think we can’t go later than 3rd round for our O-lineman. Because of the lack of depth at the O-line positions I think our best move is to take someone on Day 1 or 2 and go other positions in the rest of the draft.

The players I’m thinking of are Rodger Saffold and Vladimir Ducasse. Here are 2 guys who are a little raw but have the potential to be able to play Guard or Tackle. I’m a huge fan of that kind of versatility. Although, I should state that if Maurkice Pouncey happens to fall to us at 2A I think you have to pull that trigger.

Saffold and Ducasse look to be solidly 2nd rounders and there is a chance that Pouncey could fall to us there as well. Anyone of these guys will add depth to guard as well as another O-line position. If it’s decided we need a Center and Pouncey isn’t there then go Tennant or Walton in 3rd.

Essentially what I’m trying to say is that later round OL value is poor so get one O-lineman Day 1 or 2 and then get none on Day 3.

JP Carter

Now that Fraley has signed with the Rams, it clears things up a bit. We most likely will sign Lilja. Wiegmann will be the starting C. Albert move to the RT. Our first pick will be a LT (my guess is B. Bulaga). Pioli puts emphasis on positional value.
-E. Berry is not option. Pioli will concentrate his picks on the lines, where the draft is the strongest this year.
-D. Bryant is not option. WRs rarely blossom in their 1st year and he is a head case who makes bad career decisions. Resigning Chambers was a clue that a WR will not be our first pick.
-We could trade down if a QB needy team still has Bradford/Clausen on the board at pick 5.
-Keep in mind this year that only the first round happens on the 4/22. Expect more trades because teams will have much more time to figure out the later rounds. I expect D. Johnson to be traded. Other players that may be traded:
J. Page, G. Dorsey, B. Croyle (from your previous post).
-T. Williams - OU may be a surprise pick too. He is flying up the boards.

BobLoblaw

Eric Olsen, center out of Notre Dame would be a great late round pick to be groomed by Wiegmann! (Weis will probably make sure this gets done)

If we can trade down to get an extra 2nd round pick I think we have to do it. That being said, I won't be upset if we take Eric Berry or the best LT on the board at #5.

chance:

How would you address the defensive front seven?

Zach:

I have O'Callaghan at RT, Waters at LG or C, Albert at LT or LG. After that, things are open. Wiegmann will either start at center, backup there or get cut. I hope we can get Lilja or Fraley and draft a high quality rookie to work in. What are you thinking?

Zach

I am pretty much thinking the same thing, but I don't think at this point in his career moving Waters to Center would be good for this team. I think he helps Albert out and we need to start thinking about a long-term solution at Center and RG.

Moving Waters to center might accomplish a couple of things. One, it may extend his career a year or so. Two, he would be making all the line calls, so it could help everyone out. Three, he would be a larger center, better suited to taking on a NT.

Don't get me wrong I am not totally against this move. If it happens I think all three of the things you say could all be benefits to the move.

(BTW, I'm loving the threaded comments even if there are some haters out there knocking the new look)

chancebfromNM

i want pioli to get dez bryant and taylor mays do some trading picks and try to get 2 1st rounders maybe and yeah get mays and bryant and balance this thing out our line is decent now albert waters weigmann o callaghan ndukwe and a 2nd round rotatable olineman can do for this year we have pope and cottam 2 huge te s to help block also

I think both or either one of these guys is a good sign lilja is kinda small and fraley is the better over all choice i would say weigmann is here to play center not backup anyone and waters will retire a guard albert does need to beef up move inside somewere and we need 2 taclkes