Merlin's Magic: Post-Bills Draft Position Edition

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Losing a winnable game to Buffalo has really put us in a difficult position in the draft position race. The results of our game, plus Washington beating Oakland has put us all alone with three wins. Right now, that’s good for position #5 in the first round. This is not a good spot to be in. Oh wait, there is even more bad news. Coming up fast in our rear view mirror is a Browns team that beat Pittsburgh. A loss to the Browns would put us in a tie with three wins each. The importance of beating Cleveland can not be understated. This is the last home game and the last clear winnable game. We need to beat the Browns and then, as a bonus, hope they can beat the Raiders the following week. The updated schedules are below. I am not putting the Browns in my schedule breakdown, call it karma, delusion or wishfull thinking. Winnable games are in bold.

Remaining Schedules

Wash (4 wins, zero winnable games): Giants, Dallas, @ SD

Oak (4 wins, one winnable game): @ Den, @ Clev, Balt

KC (3 wins, one winnable game): Clev, @ Cinci, @ Den

Baring a big upset, Buffalo and all the other five win teams are out of reach. Our realistic hope is to get to four wins and hopefully get into a tiebreaker with Washington and/or Oakland. Should that occur, strength of schedule would be the tiebreaker regardless of the number of teams tied. The worst case scenario is that Cleveland beats us and the Raiders and we lose out. That would probably give us position #4 and an even bigger contract to pay out.

Atlanta watch, AKA the TonyG second round pick watch.

Atlanta gave an better than expected game to the Saints, but still lost. Their playoff hopes are slim and fading. They need to win out and hope for the best. Green Bay (with nine wins) has all but locked up one wild card berth. That leaves Atlanta needing to pass a collapsing Dallas team that is two games ahead of them as well as a Giants team that is one game ahead. It is not an easy task at all, but stranger things have happened. If you are looking for an Atlanta loss, traveling to a Jets team that is still in the playoff hunt is your best bet. Those teams play this week. Atlanta then closes with home games against Buffalo and Tampa Bay. 9-7 is still their most likely record, but 8-8 is possible and would give us a better second round pick.

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Merlin

102:

I don't see a QB being drafted. We have far too many needs. If we draft one, it might be a round 5 pick.

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102win

I don't think the Chiefs will draft a QB. I think the front loaded Cassel contract was a great idea. At the end of 2010 we will know what we have in Cassel, and if we draft well this year we could pick up a prime QB FA if needed.

Double D

I can't imagine the Rams not taking a QB. The Lions absolutely must take Okung if he's there. Tampa taking Suh makes sense.

This draft seems to be deep in talented QBs - I'll be especially interested to see who's available in 2nd round and whether we make any moves on that front. Unless we have a shot at Okung, I pray to God we don't go for a LT with our first pick - the talent level doesn't seem to be there this year.

I don't find the argument that we take a S with a top 5/6 pick very compelling personally. Having a solid front stopping the run and creating havoc in the pocket is way more important than good safety play.

Count me among the skeptics when it comes to the Chiefs trading out of their first pick. Besides, I can't say that I'm particularly impressed with Pioli's drafting abilities thus far. If he had used that #3 pick last year on either BJ Raji or any one of the several talented LBs available, our defense would be miles ahead of where it is right now.

Always good to see your mocks. You toss out a ton of ideas.

Thanks. I think it would make sense for Houston, they already have most pieces in place so they could grab a great DT. I think it will go Tampa-Suh,St.Louis-Okung or QB,Detriot-Okung or Berry, then the Chiefs slot.

RollaChief

I really like your draft picks, 102win. I'm worried about us getting stuck in the top 5, again, though, because it's nearly impossible to trade out of it. Even so, I would LOVE to see Pioli get NT Terrence Cody, who I'm convinced is just what the Chiefs need to solidfy their defensive line.

I also don't buy pundits mock drafting the Chiefs taking OT Russell Okung. First, I think he'll be gone by the fourth pick; second, our offensive line is showing signs of better play. I'm becoming a believer in the notion that what really helps an o-line is time playing together. Doesn't mean we couldn't use a new center or RG/RT, but I think defense has greater needs.

We're just not ready yet for a WR. Detroit went down that road, and look where it got them, after three tries.

I think we will lose out and finish in the #4 slot,we could trade down with Houston to around #14 and pick up their 2nd and 4th. Houston could grab DT McCoy. We save some cash and pick up a couple of picks. Charts will say we are getting poor compensation, but if we are targeting a 3-4 NT they both should be their at #14. We Draft:

R1 #14 NT Terrence Cody-Alabama
R2 #36 OT Jason Fox-Miami
R2 #46 LB Brandon Spikes-Florida
R2 #48 WR Arreligous Benn-Illinois
R3 #68 C Matt Tennant-BC
R4 #100 LB Jermaine Cunningham-Florida
R4 #110 SS Justin Woodall-Alabama
R5 #132 RB DeMarco Murray-Oklahoma
R5 #144 TE Aaron Hernandez-Florida
R5 #146 DE Cory Peters-Kentucky
R7 #212 FS Shane Carter-Wisconsin

DD:

Head to head is irrelevent for draft position. If it was, Washington would draft ahead of us since we beat them and the draft is a worst gets priority scheme.

If we are tied with one or two teams, it is all based on strength of schedule. The team with the easiest strength of schedule is deemed to be the worst team and they draft first. The order does rotate though the other rounds. Right now, our most realistic best case is to end up in a tie with Washington or Oakland and have a harder SOS. Then, we would get involved in the tiebreaker. My hope is to end up #6 for round one and rotate to the #5 slot for round two.

Merlin,

First off, thanks for stealing some of the thunder out of the post that I had planned for later this week.

Anyway, I guess I'm a little confused about what you're saying here. I thought that if we end up in a W-L tie with the Redskins, that we would pick ahead of them because of the head-to-head? Is that not the case?

No matter really, unless we fall into a healthy dose of luck between now and the end of the season, the way I have it figured is that we'll most likely wind up with either the #4 or the #5 pick. Not a whole lot of difference between the two in terms draft cost and maneuverability.

Also, while Washington losing out seems likely, it's not a certainty. Dallas and the Giants are longtime division rivals and because of that more often than not these last season NFC North games have a funny way of defying all expectations. Just sayin'