Merlin's Magic: Third Quarter Review

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For a third quarter that exceeded expectations with two wins, it felt like a lost quarter. Getting blown out twice in a row will do that. I expected to get blown out by the Chargers. I had predicted losing that game by 20+ points. However, the Denver game was unexpected and tough to deal accept. Denver is not 30 points better than we are. To lose at home like that, when you are honoring the late Derrick Thomas…… unforgivable is a mild statement. Just a side note. Nice classless move, Clark Hunt, Scott Pioli or whoever made that decision. Carl Peterson should have been on the field for that ceremony. To not invite him is a totally classless move. You should be ashamed. Clark, you say Pittsburgh is your model to emulate. Consider for a moment how Pittsburgh dealt with Mike Webster (reminder, they ignored him) and consider how your father dealt with Mike Webster (gave him a job, let him sleep in Arrowhead when he was homeless). Clark, you need a bit less Pittsburgh and a bit more Lamar.

I will still mark the third quarter as a win and on to the forth quarter of the season. Here we have the oddest of oddities. The Chiefs should be favored to win two games in a row. That’s right, this quarter contains two winnable games. It’s the next two, the final home games. Buffalo is first, then Cleveland comes to town. I rate Buffalo as a toss up game, and we should beat Cleveland. After that, it’s road games at the Bengals and at Denver. Now the last week of the season is notorious for really odd results. We don’t know what teams need the win for playoff positioning and who can rest some key players. Having said that, if Denver needs the game, it’s a probable loss. Two wins this quarter is the expected result.

Draft talk is heating up and over at drafttek.com we just released a new mock draft. I do the Chiefs needs, but the computer runs the simulation. So, it’s not always what I would do exactly. This sim is interesting especially at the top of the second round.

Now that there are four games left in the season, we can take a closer look at draft position. As a refresher, we would like to avoid a top five pick for two reasons. First, the contracts are too high for those players. Second, those picks are very hard to trade. That limits your options. Right now, we are in the sweet spot of pick #6.

Cleveland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Detroit are probably the first four teams in the draft, in any order. KC is lumped with Washington, Oakland and Buffalo for spots five through eight. One of the many five win teams may sink into the mix. It’s way too early to predict which team that will be.

The remaining schedules for those four teams are posted below. What I consider to be their winnable games are in bold.

Remaining Schedules

Wash (3 wins, one winnable game): @ Oak, Giants, Dallas, @ SD

Oak (4 wins, two winnable games): Wash, @ Den, @ Clev, Balt

Buf (4 wins, one winnable game): @ KC, NE, @ Atl, Ind

KC (3 wins, two winnable games): Buff, Clev, @ Cinci, @ Den

Curiously, next weeks games contains two games that involve two of those four teams. Buffalo and KC play. Oakland and Washington also play each other. Those two games are very important for draft position.

Those of you that recall we have Atlanta’s second round pick are curious how Atlanta is doing. Chief fans are torn between wanting to see Tony G go to the playoffs (yeah Tony) and Atlanta not making the playoffs or losing early (yeah better draft postion).

Atlanta has the following schedule remaining. I put their winnable games in bold as well.

Atl (6 wins, three winnable games): NO, @ Jets, Buff, TB

As you can see, Atlanta’s most likely result is a 9-7 record which probably leaves them outside the playoffs. That’s not a definite, but a probable. Atlanta is competing with the Dallas/Philly division loser and Green Bay. All three of those teams have eight wins. Also, the Giants are a game ahead of Atlanta with seven wins. It will probably take ten wins to get a wild card berth, but stranger things have happened. Should Atlanta miss the playoffs, the worst draft position they could have would be #20. That would translate to pick #52 for us in round two.

Shirley Silvio

If you agree COlts are going to lose become a fan of FB page Colts Will Lose Super Bowl 2010!

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bquirk26

Oh and as i stated in earlier comment I would go for a big bruising runner in the late rounds somewhere. Someone to compliment Jamaal and dont spend too much on him.

I agree with the point that we need another solid backup QB. Not only if Cassel does end up proving himself to have a solid backup, but also competition breeds results. Cassel is underperforming this year and while I dont at all think we should jump ship, i think we need to show him that his job security isnt always going to be there. I love Cassel and want him to succeed as the QB, however I think he needs to have more pressure behind him than Brokie Croyle.

As for TE I think this team is in such disarray that free agency might be a good place to look for a TE. Every QB needs a TE as his security blanket, and this point may go along with my first point. While i do support finding a solid backup QB, I think TE is more pressing.

As for SS we need dramatic help there. That is what implodes when we lose big games.

I agree with NT and RT in the first 2 picks. WR/KR is placed in a good spot. More emphasis on the WR part of course. OG is definitely needed, however I may put TE ahead of the linebackers. TE is a valuable resource for a QB and when ours is struggling, that may very easily help him in a big way. I agree with your draft board except the switch of LB and TE. I think a development QB should come whenever the draft allows it to come. This may very from what selection is left, but I think it gets very hard to predict needs in the late rounds. It may be what available talent is left on the board.

Merlin

DD:

I hear where you are coming from. Personally, I am comfortable enough with Cassel/Brodie (assuming we resign Brodie) to look elsewhere in this draft. You have a reasonable position, I just wouldn't use a first day pick on a QB. If we grabbed a QB with one of our fifth round picks, I could see that more.

Double D

Understand that while I am not looking to replace Cassel there are right now serious concerns about him and we better have some kind of insurance policy at the ready if Cassel continues to tank. So, considering the central importance of the QB position - yes. If Cassel proves himself, we would then have the option of trading away that drafted QB for a comparable pick.

As far as TE goes, this offense doesn't really feature that position the way say a West Coast offense does. Basically what we need is a Jason Dunn type TE and I feel we pretty much already have that in Cottam. Not great hands but can block and able to create matchup problems in short yardage situations.

SS - yes, we need to get better talent there but not at the expense of the neglecting the front 7 or the need for offensive playmakers.

So you would look to replace Cassel before you looked at TE or SS? Are you more confident in Pope and Brown than you are in Cassel?

I really haven't given that a lot of thought yet Merlin. I'm basically a needs+BPA combo guy when it comes to the draft and I don't really have a good feel for stuff like talent level, who's projected where on this upcoming draft yet.

At this point, I guess I would rank our need positions something like this:

1. NT
2. RT
3. WR/KR
4. OG*2
5. ILB/OLB
6. Development QB
7. TE
8. SS

Hopefully we can fill at least a couple of these holes through FA but I'm not holding my breath. This team has a lot of needs - it's going to take a couple of drafts. Getting rid of decent players unnecessarily hasn't helped matters.

If you could design your ideal draft, position-wise. What positions would you select for the Chiefs in the first 4 rounds of the draft?

Matt Cassel. Nice guy. Good leader. Damon Huard.

Cassel should be allowed another year to prove himself. He should also have competition. If he can't hack it again next season, then we better have somebody in the wings other than Brodie Croyle.

I'm also seeing (I think) some progress and development with our OL. Maybe we don't need to draft more than a couple of OL. I'm leaning towards Sam Young as an ideal RT - not sure where he's ranked currently though. That just leaves OGs and maybe another C (I'm not as down on Niswanger as most people) to pick up in the draft which can be facilitated in later rounds.

1st and 2nd rounds should probably focus on front 7 and/or maybe a dual threat WR (Ted Ginn/DeSean Jackson/ Jeremy Maclin types).

I can't see that. We have far too many bigger needs, in my opinion. What is your rational for drafting another QB that high?

And what would you say to the thought of drafting a QB somewhere around the 2nd or 3rd round? Could you see that too?

I could see that. It's a good thought.

In the early 5th round, if I were wanting a bruiser back who could also block, wouldn't it make the most sense at the point to be looking for the best FB available - someone along the lines of a Peyton Hillis for example?

Right now, legarrette blount is rated as a 7th round prospect. Since we don't have a 7th, or a 6th (if the rumors are true) I don't see us drafting him. He could be signed as an undrafted rookie. He would bring some.... punch back to the offense. Seriously though, he is a long strider and I am not big on long striders. You are thinking though. He has the right size and wants to run inside. I agree with the type of player you are looking at. Do you see anyone else we could get around round five that fits that bill?

what are your thoughts of drafting legarret blunt in later rounds? i like his big physical style of play and i think we can get him at a HUGE discount for his talent bc of his incident.

we need to bulk up RB after LJs gone. i love jamaal but obviously he cant do it all i feel we need a physical back to compliment jamaals speed and quickness

Good work as always Merlin.

One comment - I know that we Chiefs fans tend to view Buffalo and Cleveland as opportunities for wins; but by the same token, if I'm a Buffalo or Cleveland fan, I'd have to be feeling pretty good about having KC on my schedule at this point.