Here you go Randy. According to Vegas, the Steelers are favored to win by 10 (only ten?). The over/under is 40. After 10,000 simulations the average score is Steelers 27.2 vs. Chiefs 13.7, with the Steelers winning 84 percent of those simulations.
Per Accuscore: “The Steelers offense only had 256 yards in their loss to the Bengals. However, the Chiefs are in the bottom 8 in run defense and in the bottom 10 in passing defense. There is only a 12 percent chance that the Chiefs can hold the Steelers offense to under 300 yards. If they can do this the Chiefs have a 35 percent chance (+20 percentage point improvement), but to pull off the upset the Chiefs will also need Jamal Charles to have at least 3 explosive runs and a 5.0 ypc average. If he can do this and the Chiefs allow under 300 yards Kansas City is a 53 percent favorite.”
So Charles just has to average 5.0 ypc and the Chiefs hold the Steelers to under 300 yards?!? No problem? Right?
Here is the Accuscore report:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/intel?gameId=291122012
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