Accuscore: Raiders Week

It is Raiders week. I always love Raiders week, usually because we are always favored to win. Not this year. Currently, Vegas odds have the Chiefs as 1.5 to 2.5 point underdogs. The over under is 36.5 to 37.5 points. They are again predicting a close game. Accuscore, after 10,000 simulations, is predicting an even closer game with the Chiefs winning by .2 points!!! (Chiefs 17.0 vs. Raiders 16.8).

Per Accuscore: “The Chiefs statistically dominated the earlier match-up vs the Raiders but lost because of costly turnovers. This is expected to be a close game with the Raiders just 53 percent favorites winning by less than an average of 1 point. In games this close turnover margin is the key. If Matt Cassell throws no more than 1 INT the Chiefs are the 52 percent favorite, but if he throws 2 or more the Raiders are the heavy 75 percent favorite. The Chiefs defense is dead-last in INTs at just 3 in 8 games. Even the INT prone JaMarcus Russell only has a 50 percent chance of throwing an INT. This has a lot to do with the Raiders offense looking to stick with the run. If the Raiders average over 4.5 ypc they are 68 percent favorites, but if they are held under 4 ypc the Chiefs are the 56 percent favorite.”

Take a look:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/intel?gameId=291115013

What do you think? How are we going to win this game?

toma says:

November 13, 2009 at 12:43 pm

Russell will throw at least two deep passes undefended by the Chiefs and the Chiefs will lose 14-10.

Double D says:

November 13, 2009 at 12:53 pm

I don’t think Chris Chambers will be able to slip past the Raiders secondary this week. I agree with Accuscore about turnovers being a big key to this game.

Aside from that, whoever wins this game will do so primarily by a combination of winning the battle of field position, committing the fewest number of mistakes, and sufficiently executing a ground game.

The most effective strategy for a win would be for one team to go up by 14 points early in the game. If that happens, I would have to believe that it would be pretty much over at that point.