Sorry guys about the lag. It has been hard to get posts up lately. It is difficult when running a full time law practice to get away sometimes. In any event, here is what Accuscore has to say about this week’s game:
Chargers 25 Chiefs 18
“The Chargers defense is once again struggling on 3rd down and in simulations the Chiefs are converting a higher percentage of third downs than the Chargers are. Neither is very good at Kansas City 39 percent San Diego 36 percent. Despite this the Chargers are favored because Philip Rivers will not face the type of pressure that he dealt with vs Denver. Kansas City has just 9 sacks this year and if Rivers does not get sacked more than twice and the Chargers do not turn the ball over more than once the Chargers win over 69 percent of simulations. The Chiefs need the offense to have a big game vs the struggling Chargers defense. If KC gets Larry Johnson to have at least 4.5 ypc and Matt Cassel passes for 250+ yards the Chiefs are favored winning 51 percent. ”
http://espn.go.com/nfl/intel?gameId=291025012
Sound Off Addicts! What do you think? How are we going to win this game?
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I see that score as accurate with the typical two minutes to go and the Chiefs making a drive to tie it up and into overtime again.
I see this as either we keep it close and win/lose a 3-4 point game or SD gets their act together and blows us out by 14 points or more. We haven’t been able to stop big plays from the TE position and they still have a pretty good one in Gates.
After watching the Chargers a couple of games this year, I see this; when they get frusterated not being able to do what they want to do, they make changes and have no heart behind them.
After facing the full onslaught of the NFC East, the Chargers D isn’t that special. If our D can hold L.T. and contain Gates, they will get frusterated. Then they start making bad decisions. Then they lose faith. Then they come up short.
The Chargers beat the Raiders in week 1 and the then winless Dolphins in week 3. The Ravens, Steelers, and Broncos frustrated them early and by the 4th qtr they just didn’t have enough fight in them. You might recall that goal line stand the Ravens had where Ray-Ray busted into the backfield and dumped Sproles for a loss. The Chargers just didn’t have the fight left in them and they lost.
The Broncos beat them with Kyle Orton. Actually, the Broncos play with heart and as a team, thats how they beat S.D. Orton isn’t “amazing”, he just plays within the system.
The Chargers are weak mentally, they haved proved that. We can win this game.
sgt: That Ray-Ray TFL to win the game was classic. I don’t think that play had anything to do with coaching or scheme. It was just Ray-Ray knowing how and where to attack.
I think this game may be a very important test of the KC nickel, which is likely what they’ll run whenver Edwards is seated and whenever it’s a passing down. An important matchup that I see is McGraw versus LT, who could otherwise carve up our LBs with screens and dumpoffs.
Look for Chiefs to blitz the safeties a LOT. Might be the key to keeping Rivers from killin’ our corners. So far, KC safeties have defended more passes by forcing them out quickly and making QBs throw over them up close. The LT-McGraw matchup might actually come in pass protection…
sgt: I remember after LT became a celebrity, the minute things went south, in any way, shape or form, he went into a pout. He was pouting last week.
SD kicks off to the Chiefs they run it back to the 35. Cassell hands off to LJ he runs off tackle loses 2 yards. 2nd down Cassell throws to Ryan which he drops. 3rd down drops back and gets sacked. Kicks off to SD Sproyles runs it back for a TD.
SD 27 KC 7