Every time a Carl/Herm draft pick gets cut or traded, some Chief fans use that event to piss on the previous regime and/or laud Pioli. Every transaction is viewed through the Pioli good, Carl bad filter. Frankly, it gets a bit old, but is it fair? Were the Carl/Herm drafts that much worse than the Pioli/Belichick drafts from the same period?
I decided to break it down for the 2006 – 2008 Herm era, but let’s first look at some factors that may influence the results.
One factor where you would expect that Carl would have more draft picks with the team is talent level on the team. Clearly, Pioli was drafting for a team with a higher talent level. This makes it harder for a player to make the Patriots, plus Pioli was drafting later in each round. Therefore, you would expect the Chiefs to have more draft picks on the roster than the Pats.
On the other hand, the Chiefs have undergone a major shift in philosophies. Talent drafted for one system doesn’t usually fit well with a very different system. This factor would lead to us expecting less draft picks on the Chiefs and more on the Pats (since they have not undergone such a radical shift). So, what to do? How do we get an accurate read on this? Well, the fairest way is to look at players on NFL rosters, not just the Chiefs and Pats rosters.
Just being on a roster is one thing, how about starting versus riding the pines? I decided to use a point system, Each player from a draft still on a NFL roster, but not starting, gets a single point. Starters get two points. Players are listed by round, player name and points and current team, if not on the drafted team’s roster. No points assigned means that player is not in the NFL.
2006 Draft
Cherm 7 picks total: (1) Tamba Hali (2 points) (2) Bernard Pollard (2 points, Houston) (3) Brodie Croyle (1 point) (5) Marcus Maxey, (6) Tre Stallings, (6) Jeff Webb, (7) Jarrad Page (2 points)
Cherm hit on three starters and a reserve player. Seven points total.
Piolichick 10 picks total: (1) Lawrence Maroney (1 point) (2) Chad Jackson (3) Dave Thomas (4) Garrett Mills (1 point , MN) (4) Stephen Gostkowski (2 points) (5) Ryan O’Callahan (2 points, KC) (6) Jeremy Mincey (1 point, Jax) (6) Dan Stevenson (6) Le Kevin Smith (1 point, Den) (7) Willie Andrews
Piolichick responds with two starters (ironically one in KC) and four reserves. Eight points total.
2007 Draft
Cherm 7 picks total: (1) Dwayne Bowe (2 points) (2) Turk McBride (1 point, Det) (3) DeMarcus Tyler (1 point, Car) (5) Kolby Smith (1 point) (5) Justin Medlock (6) Herbert Taylor (7) Michael Allen.
Cherm checks in with one starter and three reserves for five points.
Piolichick 9 picks total: (1) Brandon Merriweather (2 points) (4) Kareem Brown (5) Clint Oldenburg (6) Justin Rodgers (6) Mike Richardson (1 point, KC) (6) Justise Hairston (1 point, Buf) (6) Corey Hilliard (1 point Browns) (7) Oscar Lua (7) Mike Elgin
Piolichick scores one starter and three reserves for five points.
2008 Draft
Cherm 12 picks: (1) Glenn Dorsey (2 points) (1) Branden Albert (2 points) (2) Brandon Flowers (2 points) (3) Jamaal Charles (1 point) (3) Brad Cottam (1 point) (3) DaJuan Morgan (1 point) (4) Will Franklin (5) Brandon Carr (2 points) (6) Barry Richardson (1 point) (6) Kevin Robinson (7) Brian Johnston (7) Mike Merritt
Cherm got four starters and four reserves from this draft. Twelve total points.
Piolichick 7 picks : (1) Jerod Mayo (2 points) (2) Terrence Wheatley (1 point) (3) Shawn Crable (1 point) (3) Kevin O’Connell (1 point, Jets) (4) Jonathan Wilhite (1 point) (5) Matt Slater (1 point) (6) Bo Ruud
Piolichick scores with one starter and five reserves. Seven total points.
Totaling it all up, Cherm got eight starters and eight reserves for 24 total points with 26 picks. Piolichick also had 26 picks, and got four starters and twelve reserves for 20 total points. By looking at this, Cherm did a better job finding starters and Piolichick identified more reserve players. Total number of picks are the same, but does the round breakdown make a big enough difference? Obviously, not all picks are the same. Lets’ take a look:
-
Round
Cherm
Piolichick
One
4
3
Two
3
2
Three
5
3
Four
1
4
Five
4
3
Six
5
8
Seven
4
3
Here we see some explanation for why we would expect Cherm to outperform Piolichick. Cherm had an additional pick each in rounds one and two, plus two additional picks in round three. This is mitigated to a degree by Piolichick’s four picks in round 4 compared to Cherm’s single pick in that round. Still, Cherm has the positional advantage. However, it’s clear that Cherm edged out Piolichick, with a significant difference in identifying starters.
So, what have we learned? Well, for those that think Pioli is a genius and Carl drafted poorly, these stats do not support your position. Even if you look at late round picks (rounds 5-7) Cherm pulled more starters from there (Page in round 7 and Carr in round 5). Piolichick has one starter from those rounds. Interesting, it’s O’Callaghan in round 5 who is starting, not for the Patriots, but for the Chiefs.
If anything, Carl’s 2006-2008 drafting was better than Pioli’s. At worst, it’s a slight edge to Cherm. Sorry guys, Pioli may very well lead us to a Super Bowl, but you can’t hang your hopes on a superior record for the 2006-2008 drafts. That dog will not hunt.
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