There’s an old hip-hop adage which goes “scared money don’t make money.” Well, scared drafting don’t make great draft classes.
What the hell am I blabbing about?
Last season, the Chiefs set an all-time NFL record low with 13 sacks. This offseason, they hired a first-time head coach who made his mark as an offensive coordinator who leaned heavily on his two Pro Bowl receivers. The Chiefs currently only have a borderline No. 1 WR in Dwayne Bowe, and no clear-cut solution when it comes to the No. 2 WR (Bobby Engram will play out of the slot). So, they are going to either pick a pass-rushing specialist or a WR with the No. 3 overall pick, right?
I’d like to think so, but a lot of the so-called experts project us to pick linebacker Aaron Curry out of Wake Forest.
That’s right, a linebacker who isn’t a pass rusher third overall. That kind of player has only been picked in the top five once this decade (A.J. Hawk), and before that there were flops like Kevin Hardy, LaVar Arrington and Quentin Coryatt. Sure, Jerod Mayo worked out last year, but he was picked 10th and many experts still thought he was a reach. Coverage linebackers just don’t hold that kind of value in this league.
If the Chiefs aren’t going to draft the only “can’t miss” superstar in this draft, WR Micheal Crabtree, or the pass rusher with the most potential, Brian Orakpo, I’d like to see us “pull a Minnesota” and allow teams to leapfrog us in the draft order.
I just can’t stomach us playing it safe and drafting a coverage linebacker who had less sacks in college than Derrick freakin’ Johnson. We can’t pay a guy like that Matt Ryan bank. Especially when his best fit is playing in the 4-3, either inside or outside, when we’re moving to a hybrid 3-4. To me, that’s just nuts.
Draft guru Mike Mayock says that the players around 20 are as good as those projected to go in the top ten. I disagree when it comes to Crabtree, but otherwise I pretty much agree with that statement. That being said, nobody is going to trade up to No. 3. Not in this economy with this draft class. I just don’t see it.
I honestly would rather see us slide back and draft OLB Everette Brown around 10 than spend all that money on Curry at No. 3. I know next season will be uncapped, but it won’t be for the Chiefs. Clark Hunt’s pockets aren’t that deep. Considering their respective positions and talents, Brown at 10 is far and away the better value.
If the Chiefs are scurred to roll the dice at No. 3 and gamble on potential greatness, then they should fall back to 10 and select Brown. If making a safe move is their biggest priority, I can’t think of a safer move. Hell, if they want a tackle they can fall back to 15 and take Eben Britton. He’s every bit as good as Eugene Monroe and Jason Smith. A wideout? Fall back to 20 and take Darrius Heyward-Bay.
Who knows, maybe the Chiefs could get real slick and set up a trade before the Jags pick at No. 7 with a team eyeing Mark Sanchez? Unprecedented but, to the best of my knowledge, still within the rules.
All of these potential moves would give us more bang for our buck than Curry would at three. I guaran-damn-tee it. That’s why I’m “feeling Minnesota” when it comes to the third overall pick.
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Sliding back by not picking would make a lot of sense if we do not have anyone we really like at three. Do the Chiefs or any teams have the guts to do so? Even as we get close to the draft, I have no idea who we are going to take. Sliding back could be a real possibility.
Sliding back would also send a clear message to the Roger Goddell that the rookie salary cap is badly needed and this semi refusal to make a pick at your allotted slot would be an embarassment to the NFL.
The Old Chief was just saying the same thing about a rookie salary cap. I agree. Totally.
We need to see how this draft plays out but I have a couple of thoughts which should probably be a post but it never hurts to discuss-
I am nervous about Curry too, going to a 3-4 do we need a coverage LB at that spot?
Our D needs help badly, but it almost makes more sense to trade down and stay in the top ten and see who we can get + a 2nd if someone is desperate.
Another question: Is Curry the next Ray Lewis? If the answer is no, (which it appears to be to me) then we can’t risk taking him at three if that’s where we remain, we should bolster our line to save our stars and contribute to our strong suit which is Offense.
Our D will be better simply with a year of experience- we just need pass rushers. It will be like watching a few of Vermeil’s teams, we will just need to outgun other teams and I think we can do that.
Ive always been for taking Curry but im starting to wonder if it would be best to go Offense?? Instead of trying to get our D up to snuff try to make an excellent Offense kinda like what the Colts and Cardinals did???
Who knows alot of ways to go from the 3 spot.
And is Chad Ochocinco really gonna go?
We need all the help we can get if we dont get more picks out of moving back it dosent make sense if we didnt draft curry who would play ILB ginger boiman. We have to spend more money anyways,i just dont want to regret not taking curry a few years down the road you can find good pass rushers later in the draft.IF carl can find jared in the 4th i think pioli could find a descent rusher no jared allen but a desent DE/OLB in mid rounds
I want to know who got Chiefs Nation so ga-ga over Curry. Why? So I can walk up and punch him right in the nose. Right in the snot maker. Not really, but Curry Fever frustrates almost as much as the Brodie Backers and Harmaphrodites did. There is no stopping this movement, and that utterly disappoints me. Hopefully, Scott Pioli will be sensible enough not to get caught up in the hype.
I dont think is just chiefs nation i think its the football nation. We need help on defense and hes the best defensive player in the draft. It just makes sense.Best case scenario we trade back and stockpile picks because i dont think we have enough early picks to fill all the holes. I really think we should also contemplate trading players that dont fit our scheme such as Tamba Hali.Dorsey would be nice to trade but noone would ever do it just because the cap hit.I think that curry would have a bigger impact on our team than everette brown, now if we picked up a secound rounder where we could get another defensive starter i would be all for that.
This is a bad plan, for many reasons. Here’s someone more coherent than me on the topic:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9399992/On-the-Clock:-Should-Lions-skip-the-No.-1-pick?
Most notably, PR with your new athlete: No way any agent worth his commission wouldn’t demand to be paid according to the position you ‘didn’t think he was worth taking him at.’ You think it’s hard to get rookies into camp now? Try it with this nonsense going on.
I absolutely 100% agree that we need a salary scale. But the only way to get it done this ^^ way is for a majority of teams to pass on their first picks and make a big statement. Seems that the time for a big statement was during the owners meeting, or will be during the negotiations for the next CBA.
Gaming the system just annoys all involved. Like your fantasy commissioner arbitrarily declaring $1 trades -after- everyone’s drafted.
And nobody’s going to trade for our “passed” pick because of the risk of someone getting in there before them. Once a team misses their pick all bets are off, first come first served.
Ross Tucker recently wrote an article about this same thing for the Lions. He think they should do the same thing, as in pulling a Minnesota. I don’t think you get better as a team by letting your top rated guys on your board pass by without getting anything in compensation.
It never makes sense to reach on a position that doesn’t hold top-five value. That’s been my point all along. This has never worked. Not in the past 20 years, at least.
yeah… this is a fucking stupid idea.the chiefs would lose any crediablity that they have gained over the last 3 months.
lets trade down to get heyward-bey!
This is a bad plan, for many reasons.
FoxSports.com’s Peter Schrager recently wrote a great “On the Clock” article regarding the Lions skipping for similar reasons. (tried to post a link earlier with this comment but got stuck in “awaiting moderation” hell)
Most notably, PR with your new athlete: No way any agent worth his commission wouldn’t demand to be paid according to the position you ‘didn’t think he was worth taking him at.’ You think it’s hard to get rookies into camp now? Try it with this nonsense going on.
I absolutely 100% agree that we need a salary scale. But the only way to get it done this ^^ way is for a majority of teams to pass on their first picks and make a big statement. Seems that the time for a big statement was during the owners meeting, or will be during the negotiations for the next CBA.
Gaming the existing system just annoys all involved. Like your fantasy commissioner arbitrarily declaring $1 trades -after- everyone’s drafted. Best we just continue to take advantage of our new standing within the inbred Parcells-Belichick Hivemind.
So, long story short, “what Squarebender said.”
And nobody’s going to trade for our “passed” pick because of the risk of someone getting in there before them. Once a team misses their pick all bets are off, first come first served.
I think a pre-arranged trade could work, if say the Niners and Chiefs were talking about Sanchez at No. 3 and arranged that the trade would be officially announced as soon as the Raiders made their pick should Sanchez still be available.
I also don’t recall the Vikes having any issues signing Kevin Williams, so I’m not sure I agree with the “holdout” theory either.
The Chiefs will not do this, but IMO it would be a much better business decision than drafting a coverage linebacker third overall. A franchise quarterback went third overall last year. I mean…
This will not happen. (that’s all i have because I am tired and grumpy)
The Williams trade was an accident, not a deliberate strategy, so they were able to negotiate in good faith. As soon as the Chiefs missed their second, third, fourth etc chance at picking, it would become obvious.
The NFL needs a rookie draft salary cap hopefully they have one in place by next season. With the amount these guys are promised there is so much pressure that if they under perform to high expectations they’re considered a bust. Mel Kiper said this week that a line backer shouldn’t be picked in the top 10 unless they’re a dominant pass rusher, that’s why I don’t understand his pick of Curry to the Chiefs. Curry I’m sure can learn to become a great pass rusher but that would take time. Crabtree gives the Chiefs the best chance to win now under Haley’s offense. Usually teams that struggle on defense hire a defensive minded coach however the Chiefs went offense with Haley. I think Crabtree is a perfect fit, and despite what others say this guy does have speed. I hope Pioli does the right thing and drafts the best player in the draft in Michael Crabtree.
Mel Kiper on Crabtree….
“Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: The stress fracture in his left foot shouldn’t affect his draft status. He’s a big-time player who should have a Larry Fitzgerald-type career in the NFL.”
So why wouldn’t you give cassel another weapon?
I think you forgot to mention that our Line Backers were horse shit last year. I know it, the anylists know it, and the rest of the league knows it. This may be the reason that we are looking at a line backer at #3. Kinda neat how he also happens to be the consensus best player in the draft. It may seem irrelevent to you, but if you look at the past defensive players of the year, I believe all of them in like the past 6 years are line backers. I bet those teams would repick their guy if they had to re-do the draft now and were even say five spots higher than when they origionally drafted. I would take Patrick Willis in the top 5. What I’m saying is I doubt these teams have any regrets and apparently Curry is a much better prospect than any of them were. It would be flat out stupid to take anyone other than Curry right now.
We had linebackers last year?
Hey Adam, how many times did you watch “Feeling Minnesota” with a box of tissues and a panful of brownies? hehe…gay.
Eveybody is still stuck on the sexy pick of Crabtree or Curry. We need to take which ever LT is still there to protect the investment which is Cassell. This all goes out the window if we trade down and then accomplish both, the lineman and the LB or WR.
I am not in favor of the “best available player” logic, that many teams believe in. I think you have to look at how the draft will most likely play out, then form a plan around your needs. Take RB, this year there will be plenty of RB’s in the mid rounds, however there won’t be many DE/OLB’s. So we should draft a pass rusher early or we won’t get one.
If we can’t trade down, I would take Curry
102, you say we should take a pass rusher then in the next sentence say we should pick Curry. You know he’s not a pass rusher, right?
Saleaumua,
Those weren’t just brownies, by the way. And I think more of “Outshined” by Chris Cornell and that other band he ditched than the flick. Just needed an image
By the way, nothing gay about chick flicks. Watch “Steel Magnolias” or “Pretty Woman” or “The Notebook” with a chick and see where it gets you. You’ll be repaid tenfold. Chicks dig a man who can show his “sensitive side.” Might even be enough to get her into football. Probably get four games for every chick flick. At least.
Well, this idea doesn’t even make sense to me. You keep saying we shouldn’t “reach” and draft someone who you perceive does not have top 5 value in the top 5… but i say we shouldn’t blow our opportunity to have pretty much any player we want.
Second, it annoys me that you continue to refer to Aaron Curry as a “coverage linebacker”. You rag on him because he didn’t have many sacks in college, but what you apparently fail to realize is that he was not asked to blitz the quarterback. His tackles for a loss numbers make up for lack of sacks, trust me. Also, Aaron Curry has said that the first thing he’s gonna do once he gets drafted is to go to the DEs and work with them to learn better pass rushing techniques. With his athleticism and work ethic, I feel like he can develop into a perfectly suitable pass rusher in the NFL, should the Chiefs decide to use him in that way.
Yar, BBQ. Wake had a great secondary this season, so pressure with four usually did them just fine. There’s a difference between saying “Curry can’t blitz” and saying “we’re not sure about Curry’s pash rush.” Jason Dunn had pretty darn good hands, we just rarely threw him the ball because we had Tony and Dunn was a great blocker. It all depends on what parts the front office is looking for and how they plan to use them.
Our front seven kinda sucks, kids. We need a guy in the middle who can conceivably do it all, and well. Don’t think Orakpo qualifies.
By the same argument, I dunno. Maybe Crabtree -can- run fast. I haven’t really seen it. Ridiculous ball skills though. But it’s far easier to play WR in college than in the NFL.
Adam, I agree Curry has not been a skilled pass rusher to this point (1sack/per 17 Quarters of College ball) but there is no professional that does not think he can excel at being a pass-rusher when developed…
Folks, I never said he couldn’t be an alright pass rusher and develop some of those skills, but he is far from a sure bet when it comes to getting after the passer. I’ve heard this rhetoric before (LaVar Arrington, Quentin Corryatt). From knowing football coaches (my brother is one), if a kid is a dominant pass rusher they would have sent him more. Plain and simple, because ain’t nothing more important defensively than getting after the QB.
We know Orakpo can get after the QB. We know Crabtree can run all the routes and make all the catches. We know Curry can stop the run and drop back in coverage. I suppose it boils down to what you value more.
Expecting Curry to be a great pass rusher would be like me expecting Crabtree to be a great punt returner or Orakpo to be a great goalline tight end. It’s nonsense. The Chiefs play in the Show-Me State, so show me. I haven’t seen it.
Curry? Crabtree? Britton or Monroe? Orakpo? Who knows? Fun to speculate, but what a tough spot. Trading down is unlikely, as much as I hope they can and/or do, and sliding down…I dunno.
I’d have to agree that the top talent in this draft is not much better than the lower half (save for Curry and Crabtree), but I think we can all agree that whatever happens, like it or not, the guy(s) the Chiefs select in the beginning are part of the plan that the Trinity has put in place. And that’s what is going to make the difference with this new regime. Unlike Herm and the late King, the managment has set a plan in motion to move this franchise forward, and whoever is picked within the first few rounds, is going to fit this new system the best.
I’m a little nervous, and pretty dog-gone excited about the potential prospects out there. And if we can acquire at least a few of them that’d be tremendous. Especially with Denver having 2 first rounders this year AND next. Whatever happens it’ll be for a reason. We may not like it at the time, but are we really going to care, 4-5 years from now while we’re hoisting the Lombardi and parading downtown?
I was watching a few more videos and reading a few more write up’s on Curry and it seems as though when they did send him on a blitz he usually ended up with a tackle for loss, or giving the qb a pretty good lick. In a few of those videos the qb is visably rattled and even scared to drop back for the next few snaps. He forces a fair amount of bad throws. When qb’s see him comming they get rid of the ball fast. And still get hit.
Crabtree will not and should not be taken by anyone in the top 10 except possibly Oakland…
A 6′1 reciever that runs a 4.54…No chance.
Adam,
The line of bust wr’s is just as long as that of LB’s. I believe Curry is a talent that could do whatever he is asked. He out ran several WR’s at the combine, and almost matched Crabtree’s 40 time.
So going on numbers alone,draft Curry and if he fails as a pass rusher, make him a receiver.lol
Ha, 102, genius! Though Curry’s a little short to play WR. Wait, he’s two inches taller than Crabtree. Outjumped most WRs as well.
Curry ran 4.52.
This crap of trying to describe Curry as a “Coverage Linebacker” is utter nonsense, so knock it off. Yes he is great in coverage, and he can stop the run. I think a guy who can lock down middle pass routes and stop the run is exactly what our defense needs. His abilities will make the rest of our front 7 better, period. The guy is an animal athlete and not a total gym rat like Orakpo. The more I look at it the more Orakpo + Gholston. And Adams earlier remark about A.J> Hawk is right on the money, Curry has all the ability to be like Hawk. Would that be bad?
There are no gaurantees, and as I’ve posted before, you can’t hope something works out. “Hope” is not a viable course of action. Curry has all the right pieces and stats to be a great NFL football player. Crabtree was incredible in college, but on paper he cannot begin to compare to Curry’s NFL potential, same for Orakpo. As bad as we need help you go with the 85% solution and get a great athlete and potentially grreat football player, not go 50-50 and “Hope” he’s as good in the NFL as he was in college.
sorry, I hit the shift key that should be Orakpo= Gholston
So I think I understand now!!!
Aaron Curry-
Is Smarter (24-15),Faster,Bigger,Badder,Can jump higher, is not hurt and happens to play a position that we are in desperate need of repairing.
If we get stuck at three, I would draft Curry-if he is gone take OT Monroe/Smith.
Just a note: I may just hurl myself off a tall building if we select Vernon Ghol.. er.. Brian Orakpo.