Sorry, Chiefs Nation, But This Curry Dish Is Overpriced
Is that a banana in your pocket, Chiefs Nation, or are you just that freakin’ gaga over Aaron Curry? You know, Mr. 9.5 Sacks in Four Years. I say Crabtree, most of you say Curry. Personal preference? Maybe, but this isn’t about that. This is about playing the market correctly. This is about not reaching based on where the rest of the league sets a premium on talent.
Let’s start off by looking at the last 10 drafts and the linebackers and wide receivers who have gone in the top five. Players who made the Pro Bowl will have an asterisk by their name.
1999 NFL Draft:
NONE
2000 NFL Draft:
LBs LaVar Arrington* (2nd)
WRs: Peter Warrick (4th)
2001 NFL Draft:
NONE
2002 NFL Draft:
NONE
2003 NFL Draft:
WRs: Charles Rogers (2nd), Andre Johnson* (3rd)
2004 NFL Draft:
WRs: Larry Fitzgerald* (4th)
2005 NFL Draft:
WRs: Braylon Edwards* (3rd)
2006 NFL Draft:
LBs: A.J. Hawk (5th)
2007 NFL Draft:
WRs: Calvin Johnson (2nd)
2008 NFL Draft:
NONE
So, we have six wide receivers to two linebackers, and a whole lot to discuss…
Both linebackers turned out to be pretty good players, but not great players. Arrington had a ridiculously short career, albeit it a pretty good one. I just remember how unbelievable Arrington was in college. After you consider his collegiate dominance, it’s hard not to consider him a bust, at least on some level. Hawk is never going to be a dominant player, which is what you expect to receive when you pick a player inside the top five. It is also quite apparent that the NFL as a whole believes anywhere in the top five is generally too early to pick linebacker. Typically, the best linebacker in each class is picked just inside or outside of the top 10 — somewhere in that range.
Four out of six of the receivers have turned out to be very good receivers. In fact, if you throw out the Peter Warrick pick that happened 10 years ago, four of the past five, not to mention the last three, receivers picked in the top five have gone on to become superstars. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are probably the best two receivers in the game. I will take them over Randy Moss and Terrell Owens any day of the week. That assessment is based on based on age, attitude and game. Calvin Johnson looks destined to join A.J. and Fitz in their elite club sooner than later. Hell, even Braylon Edwards is a very good player, drops and all. At times he has been unstoppable. Let’s not forget that Fitz just carried his team to the Super Bowl. Arrington never did that and Hawk doesn’t have that kind of potential.
Forget that there are a ton of linebackers just or almost as good as Curry available in both the draft and free agency. Well, don’t forget that permanently, just temporarily for the sake of this exercise.
Forget that there is nobody in the draft or free agency at the receiver position even comparable to Crabtree. That is unless you want to mortgage the farm in an Anquan Boldin trade.
This is about getting top-five value. My research shows that you can do it by picking a receiver. That trend is even more evident in recent years. You want your top-five pick to become a superstar, and I’ve provided proof that receivers picked in that range often become just that.
Meanwhile, linebackers are seldom even picked anywhere near the top five, and there hasn’t been one in at least a decade who has gone on to become a dominant NFL player over an extended period of time. In fact, a linebacker hasn’t even been picked in the top four since the dawn of the new Millennium. Doesn’t that tell you what NFL personnel departments think of the linebacker position compared to positions like defensive end, quarterback, offensive tackle, running back (at least in the past) and receiver? Hell, compared to even cornerbacks and defensive tackles?
Why are we even still talking about this kid as a possibility at No. 3? Let’s get serious and close the book on Curry. Outside 4-3 linebacker isn’t a position that has tremendous impact in today’s NFL. Let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that’s going to change because of Curry. This is one Curry dish I will reject time and time again. I hope Scott Pioli and the Chiefs feel the same way.
I have thought that since I saw how high Curry was rated….That there was no way Curry could be worthy of that….Mayock I think even had him as his number one senior…I couldnt believe it…
I think more than we know that this draft buzz just starts with one guy and the others dont want to get left behind so they start buzzing about the same guy for no reason….hopefully Scotty sees through it…
February 12th, 2009 at 12:15 amAdam i’ll chime in more here,
I commented a few posts ago saying i supported most of your positions and one of them being Crabtree.
Like you, i just think he appears miles away from any other receiver available and he may be the best to come out in a while. I also stated earlier i DO NOT think our offense is a guarantee to be as decent as it was towards the end of the year and adding another offensive weapon like Crabtree i think will really help us in eventually reaching the big game.
Now as for curry, i haven’t seen him as much as Crabtree, hes hugely hyped and seems to be a safe pick based on what the scouts say. I think its a position we definately need, however i could also see a trade down and picking up Laurinitus or Rey being a possibility as well.
For me it’s Curry or Crabtree at #3, you made some good points and if i were picking i would pick Crabtree as well but if hes gone or we for whatever reason don’t take him i would want Curry.
On a side note the best thing we can hope for at LB i think is getting Vilma or Dansby
February 12th, 2009 at 3:15 amCurry is a consensus top 5 prospect. That is why people are calling for the Chiefs to draft him. Our defense sucked more than Menudo, that is also why people want to draft him. We all know you have a boner for Crabtree we get it. However, I don’t think your attempt to sway us by trying to knock down Curry worked.
February 12th, 2009 at 6:16 amIt’s so simple. The new bosses have to pick the guy they think will be the best player. Period. They have to look at the big picture and five years from now if the guy they pick is a probowler IT WILL NOT MATTER what position he is playing, it will have been a fantastic pick.
They can’t get enamored with trying to fix the defense through the draft if there isn’t a defensive player there who can be a probowler–which is what a #3 should be.
When KC drafted Gonzo was TE their greatest area of need? No (it never is, anywhere). But was it a great pick? Yes. It’s about the PLAYER, not the POSITION.
February 12th, 2009 at 7:12 amI think the Chiefs need to draft Crabtree at #3 and the best available talent at #34 (while keeping in consideration team needs). Positions are going to need to be filled utilizing both the draft and free agency effectively. That certainly was not done last year. Young and cheap was the criteria last year, and never mind what the team needed to be effective. I think the team of Pioli/Haley will work both free agency and the draft well. But wouldn’t it be nice to have Crabtree and Bowe opposite each other with Tony Gonzalez also in the mix?
February 12th, 2009 at 9:00 amikeadced,
I would disagree strongly about TE not being our biggest need when Gonz was selected. At the time, we were running the WC offense and really only lacked a dominant TE to make it really go. Definitely the best pick at the time. History has proven as much.
Gonzalez was a special player that filled a very important need. We now have several important needs and so the same approach should be even more at the forefront this go round. I’ve said this about a million times now and I’ll say it again – my preference is for Curry because I believe he is a leader (which we lack), he is explosive (which we lack), he can play any LB position (which we lack), and all of that qualifies him as a rare talent and thus deserving of his current consensus ranking. Add to that the fact that LB (particularly SLB) is our area of greatest need and he then becomes “a special player that fill[s] a very important need.”
However, if we end up taking Crabtree, I won’t be upset at all because I do believe that he too is a special talent and I have to assume there must be some kind of plan in place which is designed to maximize his skills.
Adam argues from irrelevant draft history (each draft is unique) and uses that to suggest that everyone must be either/or on this subject. Either/or is too simplistic of a viewpoint in this situation and that is where he and I part company.
February 12th, 2009 at 9:29 amAnother fact that Adam is choosing to overlook is that Pioli has never drafted an offensive player, much less an impact player, when presented with a top 15 pick. He has always gone defense and that is a strategy that has worked very well for him. Regardless of how much we all scream for Crabtree, I simply find it hard to believe that Pioli would go “sexy” with his first ever draft pick as a GM. I truly expect him to go conservative and address the trenches.
February 12th, 2009 at 9:39 amAdam:
“Is that a banana in your pocket, Chiefs Nation, or are you just that freakin’ gaga over Aaron Curry?”
Adam, is that a mirror in your hand? You, my friend, take projection to a whole new level.
Oh, your Braylon Edwards analysis is not good. One good year does not a good receiver make. Looking at your receivers, you get three studs (Fitz, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson). I do think Calvin is ready to emerge on a elite level. Then you have three non-elite receivers/busts. This sounds like a true coin flip.
Folks are saying Curry because he is a top five talent at a position of big need. We don’t need a chubby to get to that point. It’s just logical. The logical areas are DE, LB and OT and maybe QB. Then, there is the Crabtree Chubby Club.
February 12th, 2009 at 9:42 amRegarding the legitimacy of the Wake Forest program, there are 14 Wake alums currently playing in the NFL including SLB Calvin Pace, TE Desmond Clark, SLB Jyles Tucker, DT Fred Robbins, DE Jeremy Thompson, C Steve Justice, FB Ovie Mughelli, and P Ryan Plackenmeier. In the upcoming draft, they have at least 3 players who are generally regarded to be among the top 5 at their respective positions – namely SLB Aaron Curry, SS Chip Vaughn, and CB Alphonso Smith – all defenders. In other words, by NFL standards, Wake is a very well regarded program, especially on defense.
February 12th, 2009 at 10:20 amWow. Good point on the LBs. Maybe Curry would be to early.
Did you see APs analysis of OL in the first 5? I do beleive it was mentioned that there was a 75% sucess rate. I do like those odds.
I won’t be un-happy with crabtree, I just don’t think Pioli will risk it.
Nice post Adam, Keep it up.
February 12th, 2009 at 10:47 amTexas Tech’s Crabtree won’t run 40 at NFL scouting combine
February 12th, 2009 at 10:55 amFormer Texas Tech star Michael Crabtree won’t take any chances that will jeopardize his draft status in the coming months. Crabtree, who is projected as a top-10 pick, is still nursing the right-ankle sprain suffered during the AT&T Cotton Bowl. The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner also said Wednesday he won’t run the 40-yard dash at next week’s NFL scouting combine. — Dallas Morning News
I am not questioning the legitimacy of the Wake program. I was just going off the games last year. Not real strong teams and the games they lost it looks like the d was not around. In my opinion if Curry is the leader everyone says he is that would not have happened. But I also agree that Pioli will be careful with this #3 pick. I can honestly see trading down for another second round this year and next. Some call Skeletor in Oakland and tell him we might be shopping around.
February 12th, 2009 at 11:00 amDD- Draft history is NOT irrelevant, if it was, there would be a lot more Ryan Leafs.
Merl the Pearl- You think Calvin is ready to be elite?? Wow, guess you have to do more than lead the NFL in touchdowns on the leagues WORST TEAM to be declared elite. What does he have to do? Play both sides of the ball for you to give him his props?
I expect Holy Pioli to go defense as well…but I know a certain frozen faced GM in Texas that has a lot of defensive studs and loves to pick high in the draft. We should be giving him a jingle.
February 12th, 2009 at 11:08 am“Maybe QB” ???? Maybe!!! Who do you all plan to have at QB should we waste our #3 with either of these players? I just don’t get it.
February 12th, 2009 at 11:18 amFrozen Faced GM……That’s awesome!!!!
Only probelm, he already traded away his 2009 draft for Roy Williams of all players?
February 12th, 2009 at 11:43 am447 – The problem with selecting a QB in the top 5 is that there are none worthy of it.
I look for Detroit, KC, and possibly St. Louis to all follow the example of Miami last year by taking a veteran QB out of FA and then addressing the trenches (or possibly CB) with their first pick.
Although it’s a rarity to see, I would not be too surprised to see any of the top 3 teams in this year’s draft being presented with options to trade down. Seattle is primed to take Crabtree and there may be a team or two further down in the draft that would like to have him.
February 12th, 2009 at 11:49 amHere is what i would do at 3
1.Trade Down
February 12th, 2009 at 11:51 am2.Draft O-line
3.Draft Curry
4.Draft Crabtree
in that order
D,
So we take an aging vet similar to how we have with Carl running the show? Remember, the Chiefs are still rebuilding. Lets not get ahead of ourselves with all the excitment in KC’s overhaul of management and coaching. If you were to build a team from scratch wouldn’t you start with QB? And its not every year you draft in the top 5. I don’t think we can plan on Bradford or McCoy next year, who play in a spread offense no less.
February 12th, 2009 at 12:03 pm447 – Few points I guess.
1) There are no Peyton Mannings or Matt Ryans in this draft & people need to wake up to that fact. 2) Pioli seems to have a knack for finding premier QB talent later in the draft. 3) We need to have a veteran FA QB if for no other reason than to have one as a backup. 4) I expect us to draft a “development” type QB either this year or next with the view that he could be our FQBOTF. 5) We don’t yet know how Haley views Thigpen’s long-term potential. 6) Who’s to say we won’t adopt some variation of the spread? 7) I am not by any stretch promoting a return to the Peterson philosophy of letting somebody else develop our quarterback.
February 12th, 2009 at 12:19 pmDouble,
I know TG was a great pick, and said as much. But the pick was great because he was a great PLAYER, not because he filled a desparate need. If you listed teams’ number one needs I don’t think you would ever find a team that said, “Our number one need is a good TE.” It is a complimentary position.
When it comes to the draft, draft a guy who can play. The only exception should be if the guy would bench one of your best players if he got on the field (eg. drafting a corner at #3 this year).
I’m not at all against drafting Curry. But only if they think he’s the best player available–NOT because he plays SOLB.
February 12th, 2009 at 12:32 pm“I know TG was a great pick, and said as much. But the pick was great because he was a great PLAYER, not because he filled a desparate need.”
Okay, well apparently you and I were watching 2 different Chiefs’ teams leading up to his selection. I remember it well. I remember what our biggest need was, remember how perfectly he met that need and remember getting him as being a perfect bunker strike.
February 12th, 2009 at 1:09 pmAll I’m sayin’ is if TG had still been in college and KC drafted some other TE, it wouldn’t have been a good pick just because we “needed” a TE.
On the flip-side, had the Chiefs drafted a DT who had made 7 or 8 Pro-Bowls, the pick would still have been fantastic.
Again, I’m not arguing against Curry. Just sayin’ the better player is the better pick, regardless of where he plays.
February 12th, 2009 at 1:49 pmok guys im just gonna say… wat happened the last time we drafted a linebacker in the top 5?
February 12th, 2009 at 7:23 pmi say we take crabtree with the 3rd pick and pick up bart scott via free agency. get rid of lj to baltimore i dont really care. we could even cut his whiney ass. basically i like crabtree and our number one priority really should be our defense.
February 13th, 2009 at 5:58 pm