One of the common draft refrains this year for us is: trade down! Suffice it to say that is an attractive proposition for most Chief fans. I would love to do it, myself. However, I don’t want to get out of the top ten. When you are in the top ten, you should be getting a player who you expect to be one of your impact, star players. Outside of the top ten or so, your chances of getting that level of player goes downhill.
In search of trading partners, people look towards teams with multiple first round picks with the idea that those picks would make a good foundation for a trade. This year, Philadelphia has multiple first round picks after our first round pick. At first glance, they seem like a possible trading partner. The Eagles can afford to target a single player and we can use multiple picks. However, the math just doesn’t work. Let’s break that trade down.
We are going to use the accepted trade chart to do the math. This is the chart that is accepted by NFL teams. Any complaints can be directed to them and Jimmy Johnson. Our pick is worth 2200 points. The Eagles first round picks (#21 and #28) are worth 1460 combined. So, we have 740 more points to make up. Generally, the team moving up has to overpay. Let’s just try to make this close giving the point edge to the Chiefs, if we have one. Philly also has two picks each in rounds five and six. They could give their entire draft to us and still be about 30 points shy. That’s not even taking into account the latest proposal of shipping LJ to Philly. Let’s say LJ is worth a fifth round pick by himself. To make that trade work, we would be getting another pick next year. The rule of thumb on the following year’s draft picks is that they are valued at one round less than the current years pick. So, if the trade chart says third round value this year, the equivalent value would be a second round pick the following year. In this case, with LJ in the trade with a fifth round value, we would need to get back the entire Philly draft this year, plus a third round pick next year. All this for the #3 pick plus LJ. Would Philly do that? Not very likely.
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