Philly Trade, Why It Is Unlikely
One of the common draft refrains this year for us is: trade down! Suffice it to say that is an attractive proposition for most Chief fans. I would love to do it, myself. However, I don’t want to get out of the top ten. When you are in the top ten, you should be getting a player who you expect to be one of your impact, star players. Outside of the top ten or so, your chances of getting that level of player goes downhill.
In search of trading partners, people look towards teams with multiple first round picks with the idea that those picks would make a good foundation for a trade. This year, Philadelphia has multiple first round picks after our first round pick. At first glance, they seem like a possible trading partner. The Eagles can afford to target a single player and we can use multiple picks. However, the math just doesn’t work. Let’s break that trade down.
We are going to use the accepted trade chart to do the math. This is the chart that is accepted by NFL teams. Any complaints can be directed to them and Jimmy Johnson. Our pick is worth 2200 points. The Eagles first round picks (#21 and #28) are worth 1460 combined. So, we have 740 more points to make up. Generally, the team moving up has to overpay. Let’s just try to make this close giving the point edge to the Chiefs, if we have one. Philly also has two picks each in rounds five and six. They could give their entire draft to us and still be about 30 points shy. That’s not even taking into account the latest proposal of shipping LJ to Philly. Let’s say LJ is worth a fifth round pick by himself. To make that trade work, we would be getting another pick next year. The rule of thumb on the following year’s draft picks is that they are valued at one round less than the current years pick. So, if the trade chart says third round value this year, the equivalent value would be a second round pick the following year. In this case, with LJ in the trade with a fifth round value, we would need to get back the entire Philly draft this year, plus a third round pick next year. All this for the #3 pick plus LJ. Would Philly do that? Not very likely.
nice post. it shows how impossible it will be to trade out of that slot. no way will philly give up there entire draft for crabtree and LJ. we just have to gut it out and pick a DEFENSIVE player at 3. if by some crazy way we can find someone in the top 10 to trade up, it will most likely be there 1 2 4 and a 1 in 2010. i like the LJ packaging idea. lets hope someone has a “banana in their pocket” for someone so bad that they give us the farm. nice insight.
February 12th, 2009 at 8:57 pmi can’t use there and their properly… idiot!
February 12th, 2009 at 8:58 pmThanks for being a voice of sanity in the storm of all the calls for trading down. If it was that easy teams would do it every year.
February 12th, 2009 at 9:22 pmSir you are a scholar and I appreciate youre dedication to the subject.
February 12th, 2009 at 9:41 pmSorry and that was your not youre.
February 12th, 2009 at 9:42 pmDamn, we agree on something. Solid facts. Nice.
February 12th, 2009 at 10:12 pmMost of this is true, however a proposed trade with Oakland would require a 1,2,4 this year and nothing next year. It all depends on who you can trade with, it is hard for someone in the bottom of the draft order to jump into the top five.
This is an idea to think about. Trade down with Oakland to #7, we would also get 2nd and 4th rounders.
February 13th, 2009 at 2:57 amNow, Miami needs an OT. At #7 their should still be one of the four elite OT’s left-so,we trade down again to #25 and pick up Miami’s two 2nd round picks. Send LJ to Seattle for their third, promise a conditional next year (2nd Max) as insurance. After all this, we would have #25,#34,#40,#44,#56 I would pick:
#25 LB Larry English -Northern Ill.
#34 RB LeSean McCoy -Pitt
#40 DE Robert Ayers -Tenn
#44 SS Patrick Chung -Oregon
#56 DT Fili Moala -USC
#67 C Jonathan Luigs -Arkansas
#68 WR Juaquin Iglesias -Oklahoma
#98 QB Nate Davis -Ball State
#104 C Antione Caldwell -Alabama
#131 OG Tyronne Green -Auburn
#162 DE Kyle Moore -USC
#194 LB Victor Butler -Oregon State
Nice post, Merlin. You just shot down the one trade I thought might have a prayer. Then again, when teams really want to move down or up, sometimes they buck the points system. I agree; a trade down is highly unlikely for our Chiefs.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:13 amWe should be considering who the Chiefs will take at 3 and not dealing with trade scenarios.
February 13th, 2009 at 5:32 amNice work… wot if they threw in Buckhalter to make up some points? Think they’d be stupid to, considering Westbrook’s injuries, but we could use a complement to Charles, heck I like Buck better as the feature back. Reid also seems to love stockpiling low picks, however.
LJ is junk. Maybe we can trade him to the Jets for the rights to the Favre circus. One headache for another…
February 13th, 2009 at 7:27 amAh man, why’d you go and wake me up? Havin’ su-u-u-ch a good dream.
February 13th, 2009 at 9:32 amIMO I would do Michael Oher or Andre Smith or Aaron Curry. I would draft in that order as to who is left on the board
February 13th, 2009 at 9:32 amSo your telling me If Philly offered both their firsts and a third and a fourth, that we shouldn’t take it based on a chart. I am sorry but that chart is ridiculous and I would take that trade
February 13th, 2009 at 9:58 amI hear ya’ Ian,
To heck with the chart. If we could both Pilly’s firsts +2 other picks AND they would take LJ? Like Christmas in February….
February 13th, 2009 at 11:10 amHow about this?
Philly offers us both of this year’s 1st rounders (1440 pts), the 1st of their 2 5th round picks (39.5 pts), DeSean Jackson, a future 2nd rounder (165 pts) and they take LJ’s salary/bonus/attitude issues off our hands.
They get Crabtree and LJ, we get D Jax and sweet picks – how could we pass that up?
February 13th, 2009 at 11:21 amCan’t reward LJ and send him to an elite team, just don’t see Poili doing that. The proposed deals above could happen, Pioli has traded with Al Davis before,and isn’t his father in law the Big Tuna. I think 9 of the first 104 players would be great.
February 13th, 2009 at 11:32 amIf you want to see the chart you can go here;
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
It makes for interesting reading. However you can guarantee that GMs might use this as a guide at best. For reference, look at the last 3 drafts for the for the 4 teams in this years championship games.
For laughs look at the last 3 drafts of the Raiders with respect to the chart. All I can say is there is no sense out there.
As far as the chart and the Pioli Trinity, I can’t see them basing their actions based on a chart, at least in some kind of #3 pick trade. Going deeper in the draft it can have more relavence, but it falls back to what each team needs and where a player stands on each teams own boards; i.e. what they think they have and what they think they can get.
February 13th, 2009 at 11:32 amAh shit, I thought this was Adam’s post. Nevermind
February 13th, 2009 at 11:33 am102 -
I’m sorry but didn’t Miami just draft a stud LT? Why would they turn around and draft some guy to be a RT when it will cost them LT money? They should have no problem picking up a very good RT (Eben Britton) where they currently sit in the draft for considerably less $.
February 13th, 2009 at 11:37 amForgot about that, I was just looking for someone with 2 second round picks.
For everyone who thinks it is impossible to trade down, think again. The main reason is Scott Pioli, he has connections and isn’t hated like King Carl. Also, teams have a lot of money under the cap. This means FA will be competitive and teams will not be scared of those signing bonuses in the top five.
February 13th, 2009 at 1:08 pmGary Gibbs, not impressed.
February 13th, 2009 at 2:34 pmUpdating a previous item, NFL Network’s Adam Schefter reports the Chiefs have indeed hired ex-Saints defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs.
It’s still not known whether Gibbs will take over as defensive coordinator or linebackers coach.
February 13th, 2009 at 2:47 pmSource: NFL.com
FireGaryGibbs.com
February 13th, 2009 at 2:49 pmPer Fire Gary Gibbs :
“The time has come now however, for us to put these sentimentalities aside for a bit and for all of us to face one glaringly obvious fact. We will never be a Super Bowl contender as long as Gary Gibbs is defensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints.
Mr. Gibbs’ passive, unimaginative, reactive, never disguise, rarely blitz scheme simply does not work. Yes, we’ve been beleaguered by injuries this season. But, as you’ve said yourself on numerous occasions, we can not and will not use or accept injuries as an excuse!”
February 13th, 2009 at 2:51 pmthanks Jeremy – you are always quick on this stuff
February 13th, 2009 at 3:12 pmThanks Dave
Now we know how the lions fans feel. (Gunther Cunningham).
I hope its for LB coach, but why hire an assistant before the DC?
February 13th, 2009 at 3:14 pmMaybe they already have the D coordinator and the Media hasn’t picked up on it yet……I don’t like this – he would be a great LB coach but there are to many other options out there for D Coord
February 13th, 2009 at 3:21 pmI hope you’re right Dave
February 13th, 2009 at 3:26 pmI was hoping for some assistant from Steelers or Baltimore. They have been consitently good in Defense for years. It is a culture, an auroa, a mind set.
Gibbs would not becoming from the same mindset.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:33 pmHUH??????????????
Bucs’ new regime already taking place
January 16, 2009 9:24 PM
Posted by ESPN.com’s Pat Yasinskas
TAMPA, Fla. — Looks like the other shoe has dropped.
John Clayton and I are reporting the Bucs will make Raheem Morris their new head coach and Mark Dominik their general manager. They also have hired former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs, apparently as an assistant head coach and possibly as defensive coordinator. The press conference announcing the moves is expected to be held Saturday.
The biggest remaining questions: 1. What role, if any, will personnel executive Doug Williams play? His contract is up in February. 2. Who’s going to run the show on offense? That’s anyone’s guess. 3. Who’s going to be the quarterback?
We’ll be back with more later.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:39 pmthe Chiefs are so quiet that I wont believe anything until it comes from the Chiefs….Adam S could look real bad here
February 13th, 2009 at 3:43 pmOk some Tampa Bay blogs say Gibbs was never hired , just brought in to interview, (disputing the earlier ESPN post saying was hired by Tampa.
However, everything I am reading on this guy (Gibbs)tells us that HE NEVER BLITZes.
How can we, the team of few sacks, have a DC who never blitzes? Our new Corners are going to have to see sports pyschologists.
WHat is going on Here? Help!!!
February 13th, 2009 at 3:43 pmHopefully this is just Schefter firing another blank. Also, Gibbs as LB coach would not stand to reason without a new DC already in place. Personally, I’ve been wishing/hoping that The Pioli Trinity can somehow persuade ($$$) Keith Butler to be the Chiefs new DC.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:05 pmAlso heard that Kevin Ross was recently in town interviewing for CB position coach.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:11 pmI guess his hiring as DC would solve the 3-4, 4-3 mystery. I was hoping for a 3-4.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:31 pmAny thoughts on Jim Haslett?
February 13th, 2009 at 4:38 pmYeah, Jim Haslett would be a pretty good hire.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:42 pmPepper Johnson, Jerry Gray, Dave McGinnis, & Mark Duffner are a few other names (in addition to Crennel, Haslett, and Butler) that I hope we’re looking at.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:54 pmYea, Johnson and Gray look solid. Not sure about McGinnis or Duffner. I imagine Johnson would implement a 3-4… and he just looks so damn mean!
February 13th, 2009 at 5:06 pm[...] Arrowhead Addict looks at potential trades the Chiefs could make. They’re not expecting Kansas City to trade down from the three spot, but if it happens, the [...]
February 15th, 2009 at 7:31 pm