I loved Arrowhead Pride’s post today on offensive lines busts in the top five. Great stuff. Looks like only about 25 percent of those guys turn out to be lemons. According to my research, top-five receivers in that same span only have a 33 percent bust rate. In the past five years they have a 20 percent bust rate, the exact same as OT if you pencil both Braylon Edwards and D’Brickashaw Ferguson in as non-busts, which I would. Just wanted to make that point first.
More importantly, I’m worried about us picking an OT that high for four other reasons:
1. Which one do we take? Two months ago it was Michael Oher. Two weeks ago it was Andre Smith. Last week it was Eugene Monroe. Now, it’s Jason Smith. Or is it back to Monroe?What will it be after the combine?
2. Building on that last point, can’t we get nearly the same player at No. 34, and not have to feel bad about playing him at RT? Look at Joe Thomas and Tony Ugoh in 2007, Jake Long and Sam Baker in 2008. Typically, there is a lot of depth at OT, and this year is no different.
3. Do we really want to move Branden Albert to LG or RT after he played so well as a rookie at the coveted LT position? Or pay a top-five pick to play — GULP! — RT?
4. There are guys like Jordan Gross and Mark Tauscher out there in free agency.
That’s how I see it. Unless Brian Orakpo or Mark Sanchez blows away the combine, I’m pretty set on the Chiefs taking Michael Crabtree. Whether they will do it or not doesn’t matter to me. Last year I knew we wouldn’t trade up to get Matt Ryan, but I wanted to go out on a limb and say that was what I would’ve done. This is no different.
Addicts, considering these points, why should we burn the No. 3 pick on an OT?
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“Or pay a top-five pick to play — GULP! — RT?”
Exactly! I’ve long held this to be the best argument against going OL with a top 5 pick. Would it be nice to have top tier book end tackles? Sure, but at what price and what are you neglecting elsewhere to make that happen?
One thing I think most people tend to overlook is that sometimes it just takes time for your core 4-5 guys to gel. Part of me wonders if we’re on the brink of that and perhaps only lack the right C or G to make it happen. Conversely, if we start shifting pieces around again, wouldn’t we be pretty much back at square one on the whole “gel” thing?
Good points otherwise.
Also, I’m done discussing Crabtree. I’ve made it abundantly clear on multiple occasions that I’m okay with him with as our 1st pick, even it means, like Fitz/CJ/etc, we have to wait 3-4 years before his impact can be realized. Besides, your unrelenting insistence upon him has crossed over the annoyance line.
Tony Ugoh and Sam Baker should never be compared to those other two…
Move Albert to RT or inside…
woody – that makes no sense. Why would anyone ever risk moving an established LT?
DD:
I don’t want to move Albert either. However, if we can’t get good value for impact D7, OT is our next logical place to go.
all the more reason to trade down.
I thought the whole reason that we went to the Arrow-Spread was the fact that our line couldn’t hold for more than 2 seconds. It is not like Thiggy had P. Manning time to pick apart defenses, I mean the Broncos and the Bengals got pressure. Isn’t neglecting the lines and going for sexy pick what got us here I think you should not only look at the bust factor but how much each team improved with OT picks vs other picks.
Merlin,
I wouldn’t necessarily rule out DB as an alternative and Malcom Jenkins can play either CB or S. We need to replace Surtain and there are some question marks at S.
DEs Orakpo and Brown have to also be considered in the mix – at least for now.
I suspect we’ll know a lot more about who is and who isn’t a viable top 5 prospect versus Chiefs needs in a few weeks.
Aren’t we set enough with the Brandon’s for now? And Legget is up and coming. I think CB is out of the question considering what we need and the fact that Crabtree’s up there. Damn I can’t wait for free agency.
Crab – don’t forget that we had Herm riding herd on our CBs last year. I am a little (well, a lot, actually) more concerned about that part of our defense now that he’s gone.
Adam – mark me down for being concerned about our secondary . . . just like last year when I was the lone voice in the wilderness raising the flag about our backers.
You might have a point there. I’m not against taking a CB in the draft, but I still think we need to concentrate on needs and elites in the first 4 rounds. Maybe take some stabs at QB, RB, or CB in the last few. With a better front 7, I don’t see the Brandon’s going anywhere but up.
More and more I’m thinking trading down and adding a extra pick is the best choice for us. Just depends what happens with LJ and free agency.
“With a better front 7, I don’t see the Brandon’s going anywhere but up.”
Yet another reason to suspect that Pioli will most likely use that 1st pick on the front 7.
I understand the points about paying lots of money for the O-line, but its what we are going to have to do, anyways.
Gross wants LT money
Tauscher has a bum kneee that may or may not be ready to play.
Why not Draft Jason Smith, Andre Smith Or Monroe. What is wrong with having a young big potentially dominant Offensive Line. I think that Albert is a great LT but I think he has the potential to be an amazing LG or RT. Why not put someone like Monroe next to him, which they already have done. and let them becom e a dominant Left side for years to come. We are way way under the Cap and need to build both Offense and Defense, and theb est way to build is in the Trenches. The Fact is nobody knows what is going to happen on Draft day and probably won’t for a long time or until thart day. We all debate who would be a better pick but let me ask this?
A) If We draft Crabtree would it be a bad pick?
B) If we Draft Curry would it be a bad pick?
C) If we draft The best LT would it be a bad pick?
D) If we Trade down would that be bad?
My answer to all of these questions is No! Though I think that some options are better than others, a la Crabtree is my fourth option. I still think that HE or any of the other options would tremendously benefit our KC Chiefs.
I am totally up for taking Everett Brown. Word on the street is he could be another Jared Allen. Wouldn’t that make Dorsey a LOT better!?
If we stay at #3 it is important that the selection be an impact player who can definitively influence the outcome of any given game. That is what you are paying for at that number in the draft. Otherwise, trade down and address your needs.
Don’t you think we need to get a DC in here and decide what we are going to run as a scheme. I like Crabtree, but am still hoping they take Curry. He can be another Thomas. Not that there ever can be.
double D:
How does it not make sense?! Are you serious? We took Albert at 15 so he is of value to be anywhere on the line but center. We know he can play LT. Take the best O Lineman available and if he fits at LT put him there. Any of those guys is likely to be even better than Albert at LT. He didn’t play amazing there. Just good…And why the hell could we not just put him back there if we needed. Don’t be fooled, our OLine still sucks….bad
Graham Harrell is considerd a “system QB”. He posted hugh numbers only because the Big 12 has no good DBs, true? Who was catching those passes? Which DBs were getting beat for all of those yards- ya, same ones. I’m not against Crab as the 3rd pick, but maybe Harrell in the third round wouldn’t be bad either.
Seriously people you have to stop talking about trading down. IT WONT HAPPEN. We have discussed this on other posts and NO ONE trades into the top 5. At least until there is a rookie cap in place. With saying that at #3 you take the safest player. Spending that much money on someone who hasn’t played a down in the NFL is a risk no matter what so you take the safest.
I like Crabtree. Lets see how he does at the combine and see if he is more Megatron than Mike Williams.
OT: Always safe see Joe Thomas, Jake Long. I know the Albert argument but if you dont want to spend that money on a top 5 money on a RT than move Brandan over there and pay him #15 money for being a RT.
Curry: If he shines in the combine, sure. But we have seen what an overhyped LB can give us.
I say package Larry and a second or third for Phillys other first rounder and take Laurinatis or pray for Mauluaga to fall.
Either way wait for the combine and….STOP TALKING ABOUT TRADING OUT OF THE TOP 5!!!!
Sorry that is if you dont take Curry. Oops.
My vote is OT or Crabtree and the scenario I posted towards the end.
Pardon me, your royal baldness, but if someone really wants a player enough to move up to get them, trading down in the top five picks is a very real possibility. So, stop yelling and get real. Personally, I think taking Crabtree at number 3 would be a good move.
Get real? That’s what he is trying to say. That it doesn’t happen anymore…and he is correct
You are pardoned and I apologize for yelling.
Furthermore….suck it.
Everyone talks about how crazy Al Davis is and u don’t think he may try to tade up for Crabtree. I think there is a possibility there. I’m not big on going OT with number 3. I think if we do that it sends a bad message to B Albert like maybe we dont have confidence in him at LT. I would much rather go D. I would like to trade down, YES I SAID TRADE DOWN, even if it is with the Raiders and try to grab Rey. If we can make a splash in FA maybe get Suggs and Dansby, we put Suggs at DE then we have Dansby, Rey, and DJ at linebacker, that almost takes care of our whole Defense. Say what u want but yea I said it.
Adam,
I imagine since Haley was hired your having wet dreams of Crabtree at night. D is right, it is starting to get real old just like the Haley talk did. The problem is, we all know that he is a stud. We all know he is worth being picked in the top 10 fo sho, maybe the top 5, and we all know he will not be a bust. We also know how you think receivers single handedly are winning football games these days. But my question is, how can you waste the number 3 pick in the draft at arguably one position the Chiefs are somewhat stable at? I mean, D-Bowe is a number one wideout, especially with Haley here. He is going to elevate his game to the next level, you can bet on it. So why not address an actual NEED? BPA is for teams who already have a TEAM built. The Chiefs are not one of them.
If D-Bo doesn’t start catching the ball with more regularity he is not a no. 1 WR. and we need to keep looking. I am a DBo fan too, but he let us down a lot last year and needs to step his game up, drafting Crab might do that.
I have high hopes for Albert but a) one good lineman does not make an O-line and b) Albert did not really have THAT great of a season. He allowed 4.5 sacks over 15 games, which is decent, considering he’s a rookie learning the position, but you have to weigh that against the fact that the Chiefs were playing in a spread offense for a large portion of the season that has the QB getting rid of the ball quickly. The Chiefs running game wasn’t that great either.
There is a lot of OL talent, but right now my favorite is Michael Oher. He’s an excellent pass protector and very durable. Andre Smith would also be a good choice. Monroe, he played with Albert, which is good, but I question his durability.
I don’t know why people keep insisting on drafting a defensive player when there are some great defensive FAs available.
Did you notice that my scenario takes care of almost the WHOLE D which leaves the whole rest of the draft to work on offense. There are guys out there we could get in round two and so on that can be just as good.
Thank you for being a voice of reason Baldy. I too get tired of all the trade down to so and so spot and take such and such player.
Cinco Ocho I feel ya, I really do but Suggs is not leaving Baltimore. Today he pretty much said so. Not that that means anything. Dansby is going to be expensive. He’s going to be asking for 20 mil guaranteed. He’s good, but is he 20 mil good? The ravens arent going to be able to keep all their LB’s so I think maybe going after Scott and throwing all the money at Peppers. Of course this is dependant on if they franchise Gross and not Peppers, and in the case they do franchise Peppers, go after Gross. In that case OL conversation over.
As for Albert, I dont think he would mind the move. I dont think he has that kind of ego. He seems like a greater good kindof guy. At least he did when he got drafted.
D Bo, until proven otherwise is a #2 tops. Imagine if TJ Housh comes in here do you still think D Bo is our #1? Not me.
Either way I do believe and we all know the D needs help but I think we can fix that in FA. The draft can be used to upgrade our offense. And give Haley that potent attack he will be perfect at running.
Albert did an amazing job as far as I’m concerned. He was a rookie who missed all of training camp and played Guard in college. Not to mention the injuries he suffered through the season. LT is the most difficult position on the line, so in my eyes, he was stellar. Pro Bowl season if he was on a better team and had a “big” name. (i.e. Joe Thomas ‘07, Jake Long ‘08)
D-Bowe was only 5 yds short of posting consecutive 1000 yard seasons to begin his career. He was straight up better than Calvin Johnson in 2007. Had D-Bowe been the only feature in KC like Megatron was when Roy got traded, perhaps he could have put up similar numbers to him this year. And after Tony G, does anybody think D-Bowe isn’t the best player at his position on the team? I’d take him as a 1 anyday (especially with a team around him).
Seriously. #’s? I dont care about how many yards he got. I’m more concerned with how many games he cost us. Pat’s, chargers? Just for starters. Tell me how many games he won for us. So explain to me how if Sir Drops Alot is our best option at WR (which isnt saying alot) and Tony isnt there last year how his numbers are better when he’s getting double teamed all game because we have no other receiving options and NO running game.
Oh and sorry I forgot to mention with all those numbers Megatron racked up, how did that work out for the Lions record. Stats are junk information in some cases.
Your exactly right, how many games did the Lions win? Forget a receiver at the number 3 draft pick. It’s absurd when you have as many holes to fill as the Chiefs do.
to your royal baldness and your royal woodiness,
I was unaware that you guys had discussed people not trading out of the top five on a blog and had sent out a decree that teams no longer did this. I was laboring under the misapprehension that anything that has occurred in the NFL will occur again given enough time and the right set of circumstances. As to your assertion that I “suck it”, I have no expertise or experience in that area unlike yourself who evidently has a great deal of experience. Perhaps you could find a partner whose online moniker is a euphemism for the erect male member.