I loved Arrowhead Pride’s post today on offensive lines busts in the top five. Great stuff. Looks like only about 25 percent of those guys turn out to be lemons. According to my research, top-five receivers in that same span only have a 33 percent bust rate. In the past five years they have a 20 percent bust rate, the exact same as OT if you pencil both Braylon Edwards and D’Brickashaw Ferguson in as non-busts, which I would. Just wanted to make that point first.
More importantly, I’m worried about us picking an OT that high for four other reasons:
1. Which one do we take? Two months ago it was Michael Oher. Two weeks ago it was Andre Smith. Last week it was Eugene Monroe. Now, it’s Jason Smith. Or is it back to Monroe?What will it be after the combine?
2. Building on that last point, can’t we get nearly the same player at No. 34, and not have to feel bad about playing him at RT? Look at Joe Thomas and Tony Ugoh in 2007, Jake Long and Sam Baker in 2008. Typically, there is a lot of depth at OT, and this year is no different.
3. Do we really want to move Branden Albert to LG or RT after he played so well as a rookie at the coveted LT position? Or pay a top-five pick to play — GULP! — RT?
4. There are guys like Jordan Gross and Mark Tauscher out there in free agency.
That’s how I see it. Unless Brian Orakpo or Mark Sanchez blows away the combine, I’m pretty set on the Chiefs taking Michael Crabtree. Whether they will do it or not doesn’t matter to me. Last year I knew we wouldn’t trade up to get Matt Ryan, but I wanted to go out on a limb and say that was what I would’ve done. This is no different.
Addicts, considering these points, why should we burn the No. 3 pick on an OT?