It seems to be a story that is getting long in the tooth. Decent start, not a good second half and a close loss. The lack of effective half-time adjustments is a damning indictment of the current coaching regime. Right now, Thigpen has hit a plateau in his development. I am still waiting for him to start to spread the ball around. It may be until next training camp before we see that kind of development from him. Remember last off-season when we were discussing our primary needs? Well, this season has showed us that D front seven is the primary need. The good news is that we need three players for a top ten defense. The bad news? Their names are Neil Smith, Derrick Thomas and Willie Lanier. More realistically, we need two impact players and one additional good player to have a top ten defense. That, Addicts, is a tall order. However, that is what it will take.
Draft Position Watch
With three games left, we can start narrowing things down. Detroit is pretty much a lock to draft before us. Write them down in pen for the #1 pick in the draft. The Bengals have 1.5 victories and look like they are mailing in December. Write them down in pencil for the #2 pick. The Chiefs, Seattle and the Rams all have two wins. Currently, based on strength of schedule (as calculated for all opponents, using current records) Seattle would draft #3, the Rams #4 and the Chiefs #5. The Raiders have three wins and have the #6 spot. Jacksonville and Cleveland have four wins and are in positions #7 and #8 respectively. It is likely that we will draft somewhere between #3 and #6.
The last week of the season is a real wild card. Strange results can happen as teams locked into spots tend to rest their regulars, other teams play hard and some mail it in. Predicting that week is very hard. So, let’s focus on the next two weeks. The Bengals play Washington and Cleveland. Washington is in a free-fall and who knows what will happen in a rivalry game with Cleveland. However, 0-2 is your most likely result. We have San Diego and Miami. San Diego has it’s back up against the wall. Miami is possible, but unlikely. Seattle and the Rams play each other this week. That should help break up the logjam we are currently in. Seattle goes on to play the Jets the following week. That is a probable loss. The Rams play San Francisco the following week. They have a chance to win that game. The Raiders play the Pats then Houston. They have a chance to beat Houston. Our most optimistic realistic draft position scenario would be for Seattle to win this week and the Rams to beat San Francisco while we lose to San Diego and Miami. This would put us in the #3 slot alone with two wins going into that last wild week.
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Why be optimistic about having the #3 pick? We’d be much better off ending up with the #6 or further down. For all intents and purposes, it’s impossible to trade down out of the top 5, top 5 picks take longer to sign, are more expensive, and expose your team to a much higher risk of bust along with all the wrong kind of visibility that goes with a high profile bust. 6 – 10 is where we need to be – other teams will talk to you there.
I disagree, Double D. If we pick in the top three we have a chance to snag Bradford or Smith. I fear that we will reach if we pick later. We need a superstar. Additionally, trading down is overrated and hard to do anywhere in the top ten.
Merlin’s Magic indeed!
DD: I said it was the optimistic scenario, not my choice. However, I do want as high a pick as possible. You have your best chance of getting an impact player that way. Granted, with the money involved, it’s very hard to trade out of a top five pick. As far as time to sign a pick. Who was the last holdout in the first round? Wasn’t it Derrick Harvey? Where was he drafted? It wasn’t in the top five.
How do we feel last years top five are performing for their teams?
I think it’s optimistic to think we’ll get Bradford. Even if we do lose our final 3 games, it is highly unlikely that Detroit will win their final 3. If Bradford comes out, he’s going straight to Detroit. Bank on it.
I also disagree that if we’re not picking in the top 3, that we’re going to be forced into a reach. For one thing it is premature to claim that and the fact is that there is some decent first round talent in this draft – especially at OT and CB, and I would also add to that DE, LB, and S.
What’s very doable is a DE or LB in the first round, and then a couple of OLs in the 2nd and 3rd, and I would be pretty okay with that.
WHAT REALLY FRIGHTENS ME ABOUT THIGPEN IS, HIS ACCURACY AND HE GETS LOCKED IN ON 1 RECIEVER. I HATE TO SAY IT BUT IF BRADFORD IS STILL ON THE BOARD, WE MIGHT HAVE TO TAKE HIM! IVE BEEN WATCHING ALL OF HIS GAME TAPES AND BRADFORD IS EXTREMELY ACCURATE! HE EVEN CHECKS OFF ABOVE AVERAGE.
PERSONALLY GENTLEMEN, SHOOTERS GOING NUTZ EVERYDAY, JUST THINKING ABOUT THE 2009 DRAFT! IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE ME UP THE WALL, UNTIL APRIL!
lol same here Shooter, I’m ready to get it over with now!
Randy,
I think most would agree that Jake Long and Matt Ryan are off to great starts. Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey haven’t done anything particularly spectacular but both are meeting expectations which is basically what you want with DLs taken high in the draft. McFadden was a reach to begin with and has not lived up to all the hype.
What about Ryan Clady? I was wrong about that guy. I guess retards can play LT after all.
I think that the Chiefs should trade down 1 to 3 spots, picking up a early secondround pick. If they were to trade down to anywhere past that, they should request two #1 picks, 1 in 2009 and 1 in 2010.