A.A.D.Q.: L.J. By Ground Or D-Bo By Air?
Today’s question comes from a recent comment thread, compliments of reader Centaur27 (ahem — it’s Iron Man):
General Chiefs question to debate…
Which number will be greater at the end of the season: LJ rushing yards or D Bowe receiving yards?
Beautiful question. My knee-jerk reaction was that Larry Johnson better easily have more rushing yards than Dwayne Bowe has receiving yards, or else our Chiefs will be in deep shit. Upon further review, I still feel that way. Conservatively, I’m calling for 1,600 to 1,100 yards, barring any injuries. Either could have more, but to post numbers better than that their offensive teammates will really have to step it up. That’s iffy at best right now.
So, more yards: L.J. by ground or D-Bo by air? Let us hear it, Addicts!
I dunno, there is a good chance that LJ’s days of 1500 yard seasons is over. I know I’ll get the “he only started one year in high school and college” argument, but the 416 carries in ‘06 really could have affected his future production. Don’t get me wrong — I like LJ and I hope he rushes for 2,000 yards, but it’s definitely conceivable that he could rush for less yards than D-Bowe receives for. That is assuming he and Brodie have a really good year this year.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:59 amI love the idea of Croyle hooking up with Bowe for some nasty Pro Bowl numbers, but if the Chiefs true game plan is going to work, LJ will have more yards than Bowe. We really don’t know how well the O-line will perform either.
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:36 amIt’s possible for DBO to have more yards than LJ and for the team to stay true to it’s philosophy of a power running, ball control, low turnover team. All that has to happen is for Smith and Charles to combine for 5-600 yards between them and for LJ to have 1000 to 1200 yards.
This is especially true if Bowe actually does have 1100 yards as that’s 300 more than last year, and if Tony G gets his usual yards/catches, and the other receivers can put up 4-500 yards between them.
This spread would be ideal as it would force other D’s to defend the whole field, and it would allow LJ to get his yards without taking the beating he took in `06.
July 22nd, 2008 at 4:02 amThis offense is (being) built primarily for the run so if things go according to plan, LJ should carry the main load and thus have more yds, and especially more all-purpose yds.
As far as the passing game goes, I suspect that Chan will want to spread the ball around a little more so that might chip away at what “The Show” produces. Also I’m frankly a little concerned about sophmoritis and the fact that other teams now have tape to work with when game-planning for D-Bo. As I pointed out in another post, production out of our #2 and #3 WRs should be an important area of focus this season.
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:45 amCurt,
Actually, D-Bo was 5 yards away from 1,000 last year, so it’s just over 100 more.
And I’ll be the first to say it…
If L.J. is healthy all year long, he will rush for over 1,500 yards. He will hit 1,000 in his sleep
Double D,
Sophmoritis is always a concern. Michael Clayton has never been the same after catching a case, and he was a big WR out of LSU. Scary. I think “The Show” is fine, though.
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:08 amAdam… my memory aint whut it used to be… How in Gawd’s Green Acre was DBo NOT the offensive rookie of the year?
As to LJ, I’m not saying he wont get 1500 – far from it! All I’m saying is they’re going to spread the ball around more this year… and he should not get 400 plus carrys this year. That said, opposing D’s are going to have to focus on other guys this year, play calling IS going to be better, and with Cottam and TonyG both on the field at the same time… LJ should have a LOT more ‘room to move’ as John Mayal would say. That could easily lead to big gains from LJ – who’s speed and agility in the open field are vastly under-rated. I remember those bruising head on melee’s with d-backs after he’d already run 40 yards giving him 30 yards more. Once sprung, the man is a LOAD to bring down, so if things are firing on all cylinders… LJ could have his biggest year ever with fewer rushes.
DD: Adam’s question was specific to LJ’s yards on the ground vice Bowe’s yards from catches, so the all-purpose comment is moot.
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:29 amCurtMerzFan:
I can easily tell you why he wasn’t the offensive rookie, someone named Adrian Peterson set a record or two last year. As far the discussion about yards, the only way LJ doesn’t get more is if he gets injured and plays only about 12 games. I think in 12 games he will outgain Bowe’s whole year.
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 amIf L.J. gets 400 carries again this year after we spent a third-round pick on Jamal Charles I will send both Chan and Herm a big, fresh gift-wrapped turd for Christmas. They better not go there.
For us to have any real success L.J. will have to outgain D-Bo in about 12 games to 16, the Bryman is right.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:02 amIsn’t Peterson in the NFC? Don’t they have seperate Offensive and Defensive ROtY awards for each conference? I sure thought they did.
I’ve never really disputed whether or not LJ will out-yard Bowe. My conversations have mostly been about whether or not LJ will hit that 1500 yd mark, and while I will not say he wont – I still think I’m right about his touches and the distribution of the ball.
It takes 25 carrys a game to total 400 for the season if he plays every game. Herm is already on the record as saying LJ will not get that many carrys week in and week out, AND that he’s like to see the average be somewhere in the 20/game area – though he did allow there might be some games where they give it to him 30 times or more if necessary.
I do think Bowe will have more yards this year than last, and I expect the rest of the Offense to step up and contribute more than they did last year – I mean how could they NOT do more? I think ALL of these factors actually help LJ get his yards without rushing 25+ times per game.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:03 amThe actually just have one offensive ROY and one defensive. Joe Thomas was the only other player to receive a vote.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:13 amI love LJ, but I kinda think people overrate his potential production this year.
Our line isn’t what it used to be, and he is not a Tiki Barber or Adrian Peterson style creator. He can only power through so many defenders without getting blocks.
July 22nd, 2008 at 5:09 pmOnce he gets rolling, though, there isn’t a harder guy to bring down in the open field. His combination of power and speed is downright lethal. L.J. was pretty much doing what Purple Jesus did last year when he had both T-Rich and that caliber of line. Dude started nine games in 2005 and had 1,750 yards.
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:08 pmI would love to see Bowe out gain LJ on yards. LJ has been overrated all but one year – and as we have seen before, the chiefs have had pretty average rb’s with amazing lines in front of them. Thats how we end up with amazing rushers (ie Priest Holmes for a few years and LJs one good year). I think Bowe could be the real deal on the recieving core – but lets be honest. We haven’t had a legit receiver in forever before Bowe. So maybe, Bowe could outshine LJ and we could go after a real preformer at running back, and maybe just once, the chiefs could be a contender in the AFC. The 2003 season was so good but so bad – and I just want to remember what real football is supposed to look like without seeing it on the other side of the ball.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:53 pmShannon,
I’m an L.J. guy, so I vehemently disagree. But I’ll play nice
L.J. had two 1,700-plus yard rushing seasons, and 21 and 19 TDs in those two seasons, respectively. That’s two good seasons. At least where I learned math it is. And if that isn’t a “real performer,” I don’t know what is.
You can just come out and say you don’t like L.J. Redbeard and plenty of others have. But to say he can’t play. C’mon. I can’t wait to watch Iron Man prove the naysayers wrong! It’s almost here.
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:16 amAdam -
I totally understand – and you caught me, I don’t like LJ. But if he was given the O-Line we had last year, do you think he could still preform like that? I mean, I admit the guy can play (he did make it in the NFL) but he doesn’t do it all on his own. You have to give guys like Will Shields and Brian Waters their credit too. LJ is no Marcus Allen, but (with the right help) he does know how to run the ball.
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:28 amAdam:
Tell me something I don’t know. I’m a huge LJ supporter. You KNOW this. What I’m saying is that he may only be a 1000-1200 yard rusher from this point on in his career. I hope he breaks every record in the book, and I think he has the ability for it, but I can’t honestly say I expect more than 1200 yards.
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:39 amShannon,
I hear you. He did have a fantastic line. But so did Adrian Peterson last year (and T-Rich), and nobody takes anything away from him. Jim Brown couldn’t have done much behind our line last year, especially those front sevens L.J. faced early on.
Sean B,
I hear you, too. But I stand by my pledge. If he starts 16 games, he will do 1,500 yards. I honestly believe that most of his best days are ahead of him.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:29 amShannon, lets not forget the club was 4-4 WITH LJ behind that crap line last year, and zippo and 8 without him… so it seems to me LJ must be able to create and produce on his own to some degree.
Frankly, imho, LJ is a real throw-back kind of back… cut from a cloth woven from Earl Campbell and Eric Dickerson’s DNA. He is deceptively fast in the open field, and his quickness is VASTLY underrated as he hits the hole as fast as any big back ever.
My only real knock on LJ has been his pass blocking. I saw both our QB’s take massive hits last year when LJ just stood there and watched… I mean it he’d tried and whiffed… that would at least be understandable…
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:20 amAdam, if you have to gift wrap those turds I’ll spring for the biggest, nastiest burrito you can choke down the night before! LJ gets his yards this year. 5.5 yards per carry- 240 carries. DB’s good for 1200 yds.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:03 pmremwhen,
LMAO! I think Larry is a mortal lock to get 300 carries. This won’t be a timeshare.
Great points, CurtMerz. I’ve always thought that he plays exactly like Campbell.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:26 pmAdam, I think it will be a time share. If we’re going to follow Chans game plan of heavy doses of run run run, then charles and Smith will get their carries otherwise we’re back to overworking LJ. The other option is to run LJ’s wheels off this year and have a couple good backs waiting for next year.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:10 pmIt all depends on your definition of a time share. I still fully expect L.J. to get 300 carries. That’s only about 18 carries a game. He’s going to get that for sure if he’s healthy.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:58 pm