Addict Angles: The Bryman’s Preseason Numbers
The Bryman, a somewhat newer commenter who’s quickly making a name for himself, had this interesting statistical response to Double D’s “Pre-Season Cawfy Talk” post about the Chiefs and the preseason:
Instead of taking it on faith, I went to NFL.com, and looked up the correlation between winning/losing and making/missing the playoffs. I did not count teams that went 2-2 in the preseason, only winners and losers. Here’s the result of what I found.
53 teams had winning preseason records during that period. Of those 53 teams:
Winner in preseason and made postseason: 19
Winner in preseason and missed postseason: 34So a winner in the preseason made the postseason 36% of the time during that time.
65 teams had losing preseason records during that period. Of those 65 teams:
Loser in preseason and made postseason: 12
Loser in preseason and missed postseason: 43So a loser in the preseason made the postseason 18% of the time during that period.
So what can we conclude on actual facts. A winner is twice as likely to make the postseason. However, the chances of a winning record meaning regular season success only happen a little better than 33% of the time.
Now that your all bored with a ton of numbers, I’m done, and if you don’t believe me, go and crunch the numbers yourself.
I can see this one from all the angles. I think it is definitely important to play well and at least win a game or two in the preseason, but I don’t think it’s the ultimate harbinger for the regular season.
???
I thought we were already talking about this on the other thread?
July 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pmExactly.
July 19th, 2008 at 4:36 pmWe were, it’s just that everyone doesn’t read the comments. Bryman did such a good job with his research that I wanted all of our readers to see his comment. I also found it interesting, is another reason.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:52 pmIt seems like a fast way to defer further discussion.
July 19th, 2008 at 6:07 pmNo, that was not the intent. We never want to defer or deter discussion. We just like to highlight great comments from time to time, and thought this response was worthy. Those are some very interesting numbers.
July 19th, 2008 at 6:41 pmCurtMerzFan:
C’mon, don’t ruin my moment of glory!
July 19th, 2008 at 6:57 pmSeriously
July 19th, 2008 at 7:41 pmPlease post a new blog so we can get rid of this. I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone …
July 19th, 2008 at 8:12 pmIs this going to happen every time we feature a top comment? Never happened before. Don’t worry–we’ll have a new post up soon.
July 19th, 2008 at 8:49 pmwasn’t gettin on you thebryman!! I was the first to praise your post… it just seemed odd to me that we’d split the thread. It never occurred to me that folks would visit this site and only read the posts and not the comments! So I understand now why Adam did the 2nd post… but the comments are the best part of the site to me… how can anyone not at least engage them as well as the posts? I think Adam might be off the mark on that. Certainly not every visitor makes comments, but I do believe they read them!
July 19th, 2008 at 9:21 pmWe can actually see how many people read the comments in our analytics. Not everybody does, especially every time. Glad to see that you enjoy the comments,though, as we’ve always wanted this to be just as much your site as ours
And everyone should read the comments–always some great stuff in these threads.
July 19th, 2008 at 11:26 pmThere are good comments here. This is the first webpage I visit daily. Sorry it took me so long to join in … regardless, I enjoy the discussions.
July 20th, 2008 at 2:16 pmYou got it in one juices… this is easily the best sports community on the web that I’ve seen. Even the sparks are tongue-in-cheek here and folks are adult enough not to take jibes personally.
REFRESHING to find a place so interested in the content of each other’s minds. And we even enjoy postings from “enemy camps” like thelandryhat with composure and grace in the face of threats and stupidity – and their inane rhetoric of course.
I’d say daily visits qualify you as a full blown addict… me too. Welcome!
July 20th, 2008 at 2:28 pm