Fan Week Feature: Jay

[...] Their long-time reader, Jay, takes the first crack at it today with his post on why the 2008 Chiefs could beat up the 2007 [...]

Chuck:

I agree, I do not see Boone as a DE. That is one of the things that bothers me as we head towards the minicamps. Hali will be fine at one end. What else do we have? Turk really needs to step up. We also need a third DE to rotate in. Who is that going to be? It is hard to look at a 7th round pick and expect him to contribute. We really could use another solid DE.

I think Alfonso at defensive end will turn out to be a "disaster". He's just too slow. Imagine Darren McFadden on an end around and Alfonso trying to catch him before he gets to the corner. What a laugher.

Working draft is a good way to put it. I'd like to update it once after training camp, and then after pre-season. It would be awesome to incorporate a reader vote on where players rank, but would also be way too complicated I'm sure.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback Merlin, I think most will be pretty pleased with this season if we keep in mind that we are in phase 2 of a 3 stage rebuild.

Jay:

I really like our draft to and I hope the draftees will grow into the players we want.

Jay and merlinnj:

This is why I proposed updating the framework 2 or 3 times as more factual info becomes available. I just like the framework for analysis and have no problem with viewing the 1st pass as a "working draft". Odds are, you are both right in at least some respects.

You might be right on a few of these, I'm an optimist, and I was high on "great draft" fumes when I wrote it. Overall, I'm certainly optimistic that these draft picks will turn out to be really good for the Chiefs. I've seen a lot of Chiefs drafts and have never felt so good about one as I do now. Also, I would think any team coming out of a draft looks at the best case scenario for each of their rookies. If you aren't expecting the best out of them, you shouldn't draft them. Also I don't know if you play a lot of Madden, but I think the ratings will be pretty close for the first 5 guys, the others probably won't show up.

I'd revise dorsey as an 86, given a top five pick should start and perform well in his role. As for DL picks that did well as rookies, there have been several, they aren't always top picks though, point taken.

I'm sticking to my guns on Albert, and only time will tell, but I expect him to be a solid starter, he may not be Joe Thomas, but I doubt he's far off. He could have been our pick at 5, thats how much we thought of him.

Again with Flowers, time will tell, but I don't feel I was off my rocker on this, he's a cover 2 guy, coming into a cover 2 scheme. He'll get beat sometimes but I don't feel like placing him at the low end of "solid starter" is overly optimistic.

Cottam could go either way, so I'll give you this one, but I didn't take health into account for this particular post.

Morgan I'll just concede, I really like the guy, and think he'll take a spot, but he could flop just as easily.

I said I wasn't rating Merritt on being a pass catcher, given the enormous praise from Herm as a blocker, that is what I rated him on. I don't remember the exact word, but it was something like phenomenal or unbelievable. Many here believe he's an O-line project, so I don't feel bad rating him that. As a pure tight end, given he only caught 17 balls in his career, I'd rate him much lower. For perspective, in his prime, I would have rated Jason Dunn a 95, he didn't catch much but he was the best blocking TE in the game. I don't think its that hard to comprehend the logic in rating a blocking TE as a blocker.

As for the O-line, we're talking about replacing the likes of Turley, Welbourn, Svitek (although maybe he'll have improved and take a spot) I have no problem calling it for 2008, we have several guys competing for the job, last year they just assumed the guys they had would be ok. If there's anything I'm confident about its that we will be better on O-line.

I still think the overall point is that we are better now than last year. Even if you call the O-line incomplete. Frankly, I think you're nitpicking, I could easily be way off, and I said that, it was just a conversation starter.

Jay:

You said "I’ll try to be conservative on the ratings, and its just for arguments sake, I’m no scout"

Well, let's break down your conservative ratings of our draft class.

1] Dorsey: 90. Near superstar in his first year in the NFL? How many D-lineman were at that level in their first year? Not many.

2] Albert: 85. Transitioning from elite college guard to NFL left tackle results in a solid starter rating? Maybe, but a conservative rating it is not.

3] Flowers 83. This is close, but still a bit optimistic.

4] Cottam 80. Maybe. Can he stay healthy?

5] Morgan 85 Pretty high rating for a rookie. You expect alot out of him.

I'll pass on going through the rest, with a mention of Merritt being rated an 83. This is a 7th round pick! Your logic on this one really escapes me. In essence, you argue that Merritt can only do half what Cottam can do, so you are rating him higher.

I am so glad you didn't get optimistic with your ratings. If you did, we would be sending half this class to the pro bowl.

Another point. How can you leave two spots open on the O-line and still call it for the 2008 squad? Fairness would dictate that you call that comparison incomplete.

I think your projections are optimistic and is a best case scenario for these draftees as they enter their 2009 season, not 2008. I think most of us would be happy with that.

sweeeeet

His real name is Cornelius "Pig" Brown.

And I'm absolutely stoked about having him on the team. I think he is Herm's kind of player, and will be given every chance to get to full strength, and succeed. I guarantee Herm will find someway to keep him around.

Hey MB -

Did you know that Berry, Dingle's former teammate, will be a sophomore this year? If he comes out after this season year, maybe he'll fall to us and get a spot on the bench. :)

If you were named Pig, wouldn't you develop into a badass? You'd get teased and tormented, and eventually pop someone in the face, and strive to be a badass so people would leave you alone. Think of the song by Johnny Cash, Boy Named Sue. Just like the guys that talk funny (Mike Tyson) or have other odd names, they become good athletes because they prove to themselves that they are better than what people say of them. That's of course, all my own theory. But I say keep that kid because someone on another team will make fun of his name, and he will either own them right then and there, or own them on the field. Schwing.

man we shoulda drafted Berry....we coulda had Brown, Dingle, Berry on the team. And who the hell names their kid Pig? Thats awesome. Keep him on the team for amusement sake.

Jay:

Also, in response to one of Soren's final 4 questions, Kuharich said their best Undrafted FA signing was WR Luke Swann, a true slot receiver, whereas others are outside receivers. He went on to point out Franklin's exceptional speed and ability to stretch the field.

Jay:

On 4/30 podcast, Bill Kuharich said:

1. Cottam's role near-term is to replace Jason Dunn as blocking TE;

2. Both Cottam and Merritt can play "Move FB" and not to be surprised if all 4 TEs (T.G., M.A., B.C. and M.M.) make the team.

Thanks for all the positive feedback, I had fun doing this. I don't know that I can respond to everything, but here goes.

First I totally forgot fullbacks, but how can they be worse than last year.

I think its a great idea to update this here and there if AA will be kind enough to let me post it a few more times.

As for ratings, I said under QB that I wasn't going to change anyone's ratings, the ratings I gave them for last years performance is what they have today. Thats not to say that they couldn't go up or down, but that wasn't the idea. In fact I believe that most young guys should go up just by having another year under their belt. But, I was trying to eliminate all of the wild-cards out there. Several have been mentioned like better O-line will help QB's/RB's etc. I would throw in Chan Gailey, weaker opponents, ascending players should get better through camp and the season. So its not to try to pinpoint where we are, just that we are better than we were last year, and we haven't even started training camp. With almost every unit getting better I think we're in good shape.

One specific wild card I want to address, is Attitude, Keyser pointed it out. I talk a lot about my other favorite sports team the Stl Cardinals because I see a lot of parallels, and I'm seeing first hand how great it is to have young hungry guys playing. Over the past several years the cards were good but aging, every year our stars (edmunds, rolen, eckstein) were question marks with health. Also there was a lot of drama between players and manager. This year all the guys that were a part of all that are gone, and its the most fun I've had watching them play in years (aside from winning the series.) The young guys are hungry, and play their asses off, they don't take anything for granted because they aren't guaranteed a spot the next day. In April when they were supposed to be one of the worst teams in baseball (even many cards fans believed this,) they set a record for most games won by a cardinals team. So yes, keyser, attitude is huge, and if the chiefs are anything like this years cardinals, they will be a blast to watch.

There's a good chance I left a few guys off the roster, if they are down on the depth chart, or I didn't have much ability to rate them. BJ Sams was just an oversight, but I don't think he'll be the guy.

As for Hali, after reading the Star (I think) article on him taking over for Allen, I feel more optimistic about DL. I still don't know that he'll be Jared Allen, but I think he'll be good. At best that is a tie, at worst its somewhat of a downgrade.

Last but not least, Tony G. MB I have to disagree with you whole heartedly, last season he caught 99 balls, second only to 04, he did it on a horrible offense. He's a baller and until he has a significant dropoff, he gets a high superstar rating. He's still getting open, and with a better receiving corps around him he should be just fine. He's still #1 or #2 in the game.

Comesack -

Cox - excellent pick-up at FB, could easily be the starting FB for this offense.

PK Barth has a very solid college resume - hopefully he can take it to next level.

Pig Brown is/was a pretty decent safety but the situation with the achilles remains concern

Octavien, Dingle, Bailey, & Saint-Dic all seem like a pretty good developmental guys.

Don't know a lot about the rest.

OHHHHH I SEE..JUST SAW K.C IN THE POST SO DIDNT KNOW

Quincy Carter WILL be playing in Kansas City...

Just for the BRIGADE!!!!!

TAUREAN RHETTA HAS ALSO SIGNED..AND I SEEN CHRIS LEAK MAY BE A CHIEF SOON

I ALSO HEARD WE PICKED UP QUINCEY CARTER...ANY TRUTH TO THAT?

what do you guys think about the new additions we have made lately...
PIG BROWN
DEREK LOKEY
JABARI ARTHUR
GREG HAY
BRANDON BREAZELL
RON GIRAULT
RICKY SANTOS
STEVE OCTAVIAN
LUKE SWAN
MIKE COX
CONNOR BARTH
JOHNNY DINGLE
SEAN BAILEY
SIRDAREAN ADAMS
CHRIS MCDUFFIE
KALVIN MCRAE
JONAL SAINT-DIC
IAN YATES-CUNNINGHAM
MAURICE MURRAY
MATT MCGLOTHLIN
MAURICE LEGGETT
JASON PARKER
JAMES TERRY
MATTY LINDNER
IVE SEEN CLIPS ON A FEW OF THEM AND LOKEY AND OCTAVIAN LOOK PRETTY GOOD...DINGLE AND BROWN TOO

Good work Jay. I agree with you on just about everything but Huard. I think he's garbage now.

Wow, what a great post. Good job. MasterBlaster, I think Tony G's performance has only dropped off in the past two years. Tony can only have a great year if someone throws him the ball. The last two years, that has not happened nearly enough.

Jay, great post. One thing that can't be factored into these numbers - attitude. Even if all the numbers added up the same between the years, if you turn a roster of players just collecting pay checks (Ty Law, Eddie Drummond) and create a team of energetic, hungry, ultra-competitive young guys, you've already made a huge advance. They'll make a lot of mistakes this year, but it will be fun to watch them grow over the next few seasons. I can't wait til August! It'll definitely be worth updating this post mid-season.

Oh, BTW. I got my post to work in the last article John n Jay. Might wana take a look at it.

Wow that was long.

I dunno about ranking Croyle. So tricky. I said last year, and I'll say it again. Brodey Croyle proved to me that he could move from 3rd string quarterback to 2nd string quarterback.

We all love Tony G. And he is a future hall of famer. But his performance has gone down over the years. And will probably slide a bit in 08. Going from 98 to 98 doesnt seem quite right.

I was playing with a ranking system a while ago myself. I came up with something like this.

Future HoF-------------------------Tony G.
Pro Bowler-------------------------Brian Waters
strong starter---------------------Tombia Hali
weak starter-----------------------Webb
depth------------------------------Thipen
send em to the faders/donkeys------Medlock
take him out back and shoot him----Simms

As an avid Madden Franchise player I can appreciate this post very much. As you know the most important part of Madden is if a player is young and ascending, which most of ours will be.

However, Madden and real life have known to be completely different.

Interesting perspective though and I enjoyed the read. Thank you.

You p0wned. Good writeup, buddy.

-cw

Very nicely done.

I disagree on the QB rating(s). I don't see how Croyle (or anyone at that position) can't help but improve if one believes the rest of the offense, particularly the OL, is improved.

I also significantly disagree about the DL and Hali in particular. I think Hali will make more of a visible and statistical impact at RDE than he did at LDE. The addition of Dorsey enormously benefits not just the DL but defense as a whole because of his ability to stuff the run and apply a ton of pressure inside on pass plays. Dorsey's presence is the number one reason why I believe Hali has the potential to put up big numbers. All boats rise on this one.

At safety, I say McGraw merits better 2008 numbers for the mere fact that he was injured for most of 2007. In my opinion, you're also under-rating Pollard/Page and over-rating Morgan. Lack of an offense and weakness at CB in 2007 impaired the play of our safeties. If your upgrades of CB and the offense hold true, plus my upgrade of the DL, should translate into better overall production out of our safeties.

KR/PR - yeah

One important analysis that you overlooked - Special Teams coverage and blocking - Advantage 2008. Lack of a return game and lack of coverage absolutely killed us last year - that cannot and certainly should not happen again.

Demario Williams is older than Keyaron Fox....
Either way love the breakdown. I agree that there should be a few of these leading up to preseason as our roster might change.

Jay:

Very nice framework and analysis. People can nitpick the details, but the big picture is pretty compelling.

Hope you will update this 2 or 3 times as the rest of the offseason, preseason and season unfolds.

I think you forgot BJ Sams as a returner....

Also, does anyone know if McIntosh will really be a better RT? I don't know if his run blocking or pass blocking is better, but I'd like to make sure that he can run block before annointing him the next Chiefs' RT....