Top 10 Reasons NOT To Take Matt Ryan
All this mock draft talk and if this, if that, trade up, trade down; all are making me seasick- Not an easy thing to do in Kansas, by the way. There was a comment made recently during our heated debates of what our team should do. I keyed in on this particular comment.
Adam-
“Again, I want to hear some substantive arguments on why we should pass on Matt Ryan. Not just that his hair is a little too red* or that he isn’t as big of a pimp as Matt Leinart. I want reasons, folks. I’ve listed a laundry list why we should take him, so it’s only fair. ”
So here we go, a Letterman-esque Top Ten List. *apology in advance for #10
TOP TEN REASONS NOT TO DRAFT MATT RYAN
- 10 – Top QB draft picks in the modern NFL era with red hair are failures. see Todd Marinovich.
- 09 – The last time the Cheaps drafted a QB nearly that high, it was Todd Blackledge in 1983 (#7)
- 08 – 2002 David Carr (#1) and Joey Harrington (#3) – Top QB’s to crappy teams = disaster.
- 07 – Todd Marinovich & Dan McGwire (two redheads!) Both drafted ahead of Brett Farve in’91.
- 06 – Our line stinks, and might be full of rookies. KC fans have no patience & will want Ryan playing.
- 05 – NFL + history + high pick at quarterback = quickest, wrong-headed fix for a team that is a mess.
- 04 – Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Tim Couch.
- 03 – Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Jeff George: 10 Top 10 picks = Top 10 Busts.
- 02 – B.C. had the nation’s 4th ranked passing offense, but Ryan was 62nd in passer efficiency. Not to mention his stats came in the weakest BCS conf. the ACC: non con’s Army, Bowling Green, Umass etc.
- 01 – Since 1994, there is less than a 50% success rate on QB’s drafted within the top 5 picks. (this excludes 2006-07 to be fair to the young guys.) Waaay too risky. Repeat after me Heath Shuler is selling real estate.
Counter to my argument? Let’s take it from ‘98 – Top ten QB picks that were NOT busts. ‘98 Peyton, ‘99 McNaab, ‘01 Vick, ‘03 Palmer, ‘04 Manning and Rivers, ‘06 Vince Young.
Following a new trend none of these guys were drafted below the 4th pick.
Also, not to be duplicitous- think again about the big whiffs: ‘02 Carr & Harrington, ‘05 Alex Smith, ‘98 Leaf, ‘99 Couch & Akili Smith. The only guy who didn’t get a fair shake was Carr if you ask me. He looked like Brodie; running for his life with a big arm. Except he was the 1st pick…Brodie was a 3rd-rounder, we can afford to get him killed.
This article admittedly is tongue-in-cheek, however, my main point is, we need someone to come in and start from Day 1, who doesn’t play QB. The Croyle apologists are going to get what they want in another chance and BC will likely get owned. We just lost our best defensive player. Gambling on a QB that throws picks (19 picks is a lot for an “elite” college QB) and came from the weakest BCS conference isn’t a risk we should be willing to take when we have so many chances to get a Flacco, Henne, Johnson or even a Booty with all our extra picks and/or more picks we could get by trading down a few spots.
Speaking of booty, let me make this disclaimer, please. I am not pro-Brodie Croyle. I am pro-Kelli Croyle. If we draft Matt Ryan, the chances we see Kelli in Playboy dramatically decrease and that above all else simply cannot happen.
Nice post, Damage. I laughed out loud and argued out loud, so you definitely had it going on. One point I want to make is that it’s harder to go in the top five now, because in the post-JaMarcus Russell era the QB contracts have gotten completely out of hand. He’ll probably still be a top five pick. And thanks for not mentioning that bum Brian Brohm. I’ll get to the rest here later
April 24th, 2008 at 1:15 amI’m not sure I’d lump Vince Young into the same catagory as the Manning brothers, McNaab, and Palmer. I didn’t even want to include Rivers in the same sentence. Not a total bust, but not really at the same playing level either.
April 24th, 2008 at 5:05 amOther than that, I’d have to agree with you. Ryan isn’t the answer right now, not that Croyle is.
It is too big of a risk to take Ryan with the 5th pick. The QB position is hit or miss regardless of whether he’s a 1st round pick or a 6th round pick. It is the hardest position to draft in the NFL. With the 5th pick in the draft you have to take someone as close to a sure thing as possible. Ryan is not it.
Secondly, we still have no idea what Brodie Croyle can do. You can’t expect a young quarterback to make plays behind the line we had last year. He had no running game, and no time to throw the ball. I’m not sold on him, but he needs a better chance to prove he’s a winner.
We have too many other glaring needs right now. Our offensive line needs major help, with the trade of Jared Allen we need a pass rushing end, and we need a cornerback (even though there’s not one worth that 5th pick). A QB shouldn’t even be on the radar in the 1st round. There are some stud defensive lineman that will hopefully be there and then we can pick up an O-lineman with the 17th pick that we got from Minnesota. This is not a draft that we can take a chance on Ryan.
April 24th, 2008 at 6:10 amMan I don’t want the #5 pick to be a bust but, I was 12 when Blackledge was drafted so I kind of want to see what having a supposed franchise QB feels like for once. That being said though, I might be in the minority but, I favor DEF/DEF with our 1st round picks. DE-CB (Long/Gholston-Cromartie).
April 24th, 2008 at 7:33 amIt seems the rest of the OL’s fall off in comparison to Jake Long, so why not just get great on the side of the ball that supposedly “wins” championships? Get OL’s in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. BTW, where was Brees drafted?
April 24th, 2008 at 7:38 amBrees…1st round. 2001. Pick 32. SD. All those QB’s I have listed were top 5 picks in their drafts. Look at the link that says “Following a new trend” and since you were too lazy to look it up, I’m too lazy to write it here in HTML. lol j/k
As far as Vince Young…he is a starting QB. That’s the criteria as far as if the player is a bust or not. We haven’t had a great chance to evaluate Leinart yet.
April 24th, 2008 at 7:52 amDang… I saw the title of this post and said, “Oh shit. . . Adam aint gonna like this.” Hahahaha! But Crane, we’ve not seen eye to eye before, yet today is a new day. I Totally agree! . . . The ONLY thing I’d change, or ADD is that granted he MAY NOT be a bust. He just may be great. But Adam, dont STOP reading this, ok? We have more pressing needs. . . IM NOT SAYING “We have NO NEED at QB.” I KNOW we dont have Tom Brady, but we cant draft a QB at #5, cause we dont need to.
April 24th, 2008 at 8:38 amLike Crane said, we COULD end up drafting Henne, Flacco, or Booty. . . And in MY opinion are just as good if not better than the guy from BC. Henne would be great (Go Michigan! :::plug:::).
April 24th, 2008 at 8:41 amAnd look at it this way. . . if we dont draft Long, Dorsey, Gholston, or Ellis and we take Ryan (lets fast foward to the regular season). . . . . . . Ryan throws a TD/ LT runs at Turk McBride for a TD/ WE get a field goal/ LT runs at Turk & scores/ Ryan throws an interception, Cromartie takes it to the 10/ LT . . . (yeah you got it) runs at Turk and scores. We’re down 2 TDs. Sound familiar??
April 24th, 2008 at 8:48 amAnd Im NOT saying Brodie WONT throw an interception. Cause he will, but with a feature DE or DT, we have a far better chance at making up lost ground. Long or Dorsey can be the guys to stop LT dead in his tracks.
April 24th, 2008 at 8:51 amRoc27,
The problem is that you are thinking about being 8-8 next year, or trying to be. I’m thinking about being 21-4 in 2009 or ‘10.
And no position is more important than QB, especially with an unproven guy that can’t stay healthy and an aging career back-up as your two guys.
April 24th, 2008 at 9:07 amMDT,
You can still give Croyle a chance if you draft Ryan. Look at what both SD and Cleveland did. It’s better this way, because you push the shaky incumbent while protecting the guy of the future, plus you may end up with trade bait.
April 24th, 2008 at 9:09 amThats A VERY good point Adam. And Id buy into it IF Long, Gholston, and Dorsey go before WE pick. . . and even THEN I’d consider taking Ellis and McFadden over Ryan. But I gotta tell you I WOULDNT be shocked if we draft Ryan if and or when Dorsey and Long are off the board.
April 24th, 2008 at 9:30 amOh and by the way. . . I NEVER wish, hope, or think about being 8-8. I wish to be freakin’ 19-0. Yeah, not realistic, but I take it a game at a time. I watch the games and hope to win. Thats all
April 24th, 2008 at 9:33 amAdam-
That’s true. But San Diego and Cleveland had different situations. Brees had played two full seasons in San Diego before they drafted Manning (and traded for Rivers). Cleveland drafted Quinn towards the end of the 1st round, the money spent is nothing compared to what we would have to give up if we draft Ryan. Plus Anderson was a 6th round draft choice (another example of the crapshoot with QB’s).
And with the contracts for high draft picks, the risk is much higher. I just don’t think Ryan is worth it. He’s the best QB in a weak class this year. If all of the top d-linemen are gone by the time we’re up, I would rather us trade down with someone who wants Ryan. Possibly Baltimore and get more picks. I just don’t feel that we have to draft a QB with that pick. There are much better players out there than Ryan. As everyone loves to say, the game is won in the trenches. That’s where we should be focusing.
April 24th, 2008 at 9:54 amI’m not saying the game is just won in the trenches. The past three Super Bowl winners have been led by first-round QBs.
I understand your POV on money, but I’d much rather spend top-five money on Ryan than late first-round money on an underachiever like Brohm or Henne. Now Flacco is a slightly different story, I prefer Ryan, but I love Flacco.
I think Ryan would be a top ten pick any year, by the way, and he may not even make it to us.
I see your points on CLE and SD, but I think QB competition when there is an unproven incumbent is a great thing. Same with bringing along your top pick slowly.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:12 amDeep down I always want to win, Roc, but late last year deep down I knew losing was in our best interests. I would root for a win, but be relieved when we lost, if that makes sense. You have to look at this thing with a long-term POV.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:13 amThe key reason not to draft Ryan is that he just plain sucks. This is coming from someone who has actually seen him play in person. He threw Twenty interceptions last year and had more interceptions returned for touchdowns (nine) than Dennis Dixon had interceptions.
If this were last year’s draft Ryan wouldn’t even be mentioned as a first rounder and he really shouldn’t be even in this weak draft. Flacco and Brohm will both be better quarterback.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:17 amWell, Adam in THAT case, I HOPE that Ryan DOESNT make it to us and ATL takes him. . . I dont want any pressure on Herm to pull THAT trigger. Id rather take Ellis. . . “relieved when we lost”??? . . . Oh man, Im NOT even gonna go there with you, bro. I’m gonna pretend you didnt say that. . . La di da. . . ANYWAY!
April 24th, 2008 at 10:25 amKevin,
Brohm will not be a better quarterback. Ryan went 27-6 as a starter, while Brohm could only lead the No. 5 preseason team in the country to a paltry 6-6 record. The guy is a choker. Flacco, maybe, but he did play against suspect competition by comparison. Anyway, not a Brohm fan. He’s who sucks. Had a chance to go No. 1 and choked as a senior, when he was supposed to shine. He’s just not a leader or a winner.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:29 amRoc,
I’m a realist, man. I want us to win every game, but late last year when we fell behind to the Jets and Titans and Lions I knew it was in our best interest. What good would have come out of winning those games? Sure, I wanted a win, but c’mon. Wins there weren’t important enough to sacrifice 5-7 spots in the first round, mortgaging our future for one quasi-happy Sunday afternoon.
The biggest thing I root for is real success, which means winning in the playoffs and whatever it takes to make that happen, including losing a few meaningless late season games after we have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:32 amfirst reason not to draft Ryan
HIS COLLEGE CAREER… hes got a big body and looks good in workouts which might be useful if the NFL goes to flags and shorts this year. Everyone in this area saw 2 better QBs that are shorter than most of us last year, Matt Ryan is hype and im not sold is better than say that Woodson kid or Flacco; I just dont see wasting a 1st round pick on a guy that is just as much of a risk to bust as a 3-6 round qb.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:35 amAdam-
I understand your POV, and I agree that competition (especially at QB) is good. But the Giants did not win the Super Bowl last year because of Eli Manning. They won because the Patriots couldn’t handle their D-Line. The bottom line is, you have to have an O-line to protect the QB and open holes for the RB. And you have to have a D-line that can stop the run and put pressure on the opposing QB. We do not have either one of those right now. I won’t be mad if we draft Ryan, but I just think there are better options with that 5th pick, that have less risk.
April 24th, 2008 at 10:38 amOh Adam boy. . . you didnt make it clear that you meant you were relieved TOWARDS THE END OF LAST SEASON. Ok! Well, shit, so was I in that case. We’re ok. Made it back to ground. . . Still dont want Ryan at 5 though. . . . . Nevermind, Still dont want a QUATERBACK at 5. . . There.
April 24th, 2008 at 11:05 amPorter Park,
His college career? WTF? He went 27-6 as a starter!! C’mon, man.
Let’s stop the hating, haters
April 24th, 2008 at 11:06 amActually, Shuler is a member of Congress from North Carolina.
Ryan would be fine.
April 24th, 2008 at 11:57 amlook guys i think that we’re ALL in the same boat here, we all SHOULD want whats best for the team. its just up to herm and the boys to figure out what that is.
April 24th, 2008 at 12:03 pmif they decide thats ryan im all for it
none of us can fault the direction now. it seems like we’re well on our way
im STILL calling 10-6 THIS YEAR
now maybe you can all hate on that. but i really believe it
April 24th, 2008 at 12:04 pmVince Young will be a bust in another couple of years
April 24th, 2008 at 12:12 pmAdam,
Brohm did lead his team to an Orange Bowl victory his junior year. The loss of any complimentary weapon on offense (Bush), the change of head coach, and the regression (who knew it were possible) of Louisville’s already horrid defense, all led to the 6-6 season.
Now let me be clear, I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on any of the QBs- If we were to do that I’d rather trade a few picks to the Browns for either Anderson or Quinn. We should either take Gholston or Long to replace Allen or we should move down.
April 24th, 2008 at 12:20 pmBrohm is king…Ryan sucks. When Ryan becomes the next Couch and Brohm becomes the next Brady. I’m gona come on here till 2020 and never let you hear the end of it Adam.
I like Flacco, but I just dont see him as a Kansas City kinda guy. He reminds me of a slick euro soccer star with a laser rocket arm. Kansas don’t play euro soccer haha. Brohm just seems that German/irish, very Kansas, get er done, clutch player, introvert…that just screams Kansas City Chiefs.
On that not im thinking…
1st Chris Long
April 24th, 2008 at 1:25 pm2nd Jeff Otah
2nd Brian Brohm (use some picks to trade ahead of)
(the falcons)
Ahhh…Todd Marinovich, the poster child for victims of rotten, control freak fathers everywhere.
I particularly liked the article you linked to where Todd’s dad, Marv Marinovich, talked about the important training techniques he picked up from the East Germans. How funny is that now that we’ve found that their success was mainly due to pumping steroids into teenagers without their knowledge or consent? What a class act Marv is…no wonder his kid turned into such a mess.
April 24th, 2008 at 1:45 pmnobody realizes that matt ryan threw 650 passes last year
April 24th, 2008 at 2:29 pmnobody realizes that matt ryan threw 650 passes last year. 19 INTS isnt that much for 650 passes.
April 24th, 2008 at 2:29 pmOne quick note, I’m not sure if anyone pointed it out, but Peyton Manning was the #1 pick in the 98 draft, Ryan Leaf was #2.
But I agree, the Chiefs should pass on Ryan and take Brian Brohm in the beginning of the second round.
April 24th, 2008 at 2:53 pmAnd actually Vick, Palmer and Eli were all #1 selections in their respective years, while Vince Young went #3 in 2006 and Rivers went #4 in 2004.
So in truth, only Rivers went higher than #3. I’m just saying….
April 24th, 2008 at 2:58 pmI really feel that drafting Colt Brennan (Hawai’i) in the 6th or 7th or giving him a shot if he is undrafted will be a great move for the Chiefs. He was the most efficient passer at the Combine and he has a quick release. Brodie has the rocket arm and Brennan has the rifle.
I know, I know. Colt got owned in the Sugar Bowl and the Senior Bowl. But, I think he has the fundamentals to be an NFL starter. Mark my words, he will make an NFL team better in a few years!
April 24th, 2008 at 3:05 pmImmediately after the season was over I swear I heard Herm Edwards say “I don’t see any franchise QBs in this draft” Right? I would be surprised if we took one with our first pick!
April 24th, 2008 at 3:37 pm1) QB is not our most pressing need.
We will never have a better opportunity to use a draft to build and develop a good team to support whoever will be the franchise QB.
April 24th, 2008 at 4:04 pm2) I believe that something like 50% of supposedly future “franchise” QBs selected in the 1st round have ended up being busts. Brady was selected in the 6th round. Romo was a UFA. KUrt Warner was a UFA that was cut by the Packers before the start of his first NFL season. Point being that franchise QBs are almost impossible to identify through the NFL draft process. Peyton Manning is the exception, not the rule.
3) Nobody knows if that guy (Ryan or otherwise) will be the next franchise QB until he proves it on the field.
4) QBs picked high in draft come expensive with front-loaded contracts but are back-loaded (2-3 years later) in terms of actual on-the-field performance/playing time. Because it is almost as probable that 1st round QB will become a franchise QB as a 6th rounder, spending top 5 money for a QB is a huge investment into a foolish gamble.
5) Great QBs do not win championships; good teams do. John Elway was a great QB that could not win a championship until he was part a good team. Peyton Manning is a great QB that could not win a championship until he was part of a good team. The list goes on.
6) Nobody knows if Brodie is a franchise QB but we do know that he is now an experienced NFL QB. There is value in that. As did Elway, Manning, and others, he had a horrible first season.
7) Croyle needs a chance to develop and show what he can do if given a running game and pass blocking good enough to give him more than a 3 step drop. Like many, I’m skeptical of his abilities but I know this team is not going to the SB next season so now is the pefect time to provide him with a decent opportunity to prove us skeptics wrong.
9) We do not have the luxury of any luxury picks in the first 3 rounds of this draft.
10) If we are going to draft a QB this year, for me it makes much more sense to take one in the 5th round or later. As I’ve suggested previously, if we are going to take a gamble on any QB in this draft, the smart money goes with Dennis Dixon. If he isn’t off the board by the 5th round, he becomes an instant value pick with additional potential as a WR – for mere day 2 money.
Herm DID say that Jeremy.
April 24th, 2008 at 4:15 pmCARL IS AN IDIOT…PERIOD
April 26th, 2008 at 9:38 am