Jared Allen Overrated?

by Fanzone/Tailgating

I’ve been thinking about this for some time, but really didn’t have the gonads to come out and drop this bombshell until now. And when I say now, I mean after I feel Jared Allen has turned his back on the Chiefs organization and its extended family (read fans). I’m hurt, I’m angry, but I’m calm. I look at the situation the same way Michael Corleone must have looked at his brother Fredo after Freddy was involved in an attempt on the former’s life.

Here’s the question I’ve been tossing around: is Jared Allen overrated?

After all, the One Man Gang often becomes the Human Disappearing Act in the fourth quarter. Where past and current Chiefs’ greats such as Derrick Thomas and Larry Johnson are at their very best late in games, during “clutch” time, whereas Jared often made most of his impact plays early on in games when the stakes weren’t nearly as high. Even little Dante Hall tended to be at his best late in games when the Chiefs needed him the most. Allen also over pursues something awful at times when it comes to playing the run.

Jason Whitlock thinks Jared is our best player. Sorry, Jabba the Witless, but that would be No. 27 followed by that big, fast, dominating tight end who’s been dominating for a decade. I think his name’s Tony Gonzalez. And what about Brian Waters? One off year when he’s playing alongside a line so piss poor I think he would have preferred the Queer Eye gang–with the fifth member filling in for Jason Dunn–and he’s out of the conversation? Not if you ask me. I’m not going to crown Jared’s ass–thank you, Denny Green–after one monster year.

I’m not the only one who feels this way either. Nick Athan from WPI:

Allen is a great player, but has holes in his game. I can show you the stats concerning his lack of sacks in the fourth quarter – where most games are decided. It’s common knowledge he isn’t the league’s most prolific run defender.

We want to know what the rest of the Arrowhead Addict community thinks; is Jared Allen overrated due to both his staggering sack count and unparalleled popularity?

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I think that JA is not the answer to all the problems, which player is. But JA is a great component of the defense and to lose him would be a great loss. They should do what they can to keep JA and try to build around him. Develop him more into a leader and continue to get better on defense. Why keep starting over and let him go in hopes we can draft well for another player. It takes time to develop new players.

You ungrateful and forgetful "fans" should be ashamed of yourselves! I remember when Jared was drafted and these same pages were loaded with you "knowledgeable" pundits all crying the blues about the "wasted pick" and the stupidity of the Chiefs for taking the "overrated D1-AA" player. Then the tide changed and my prediction that he would show a high motor and great skill came 100% true. He was that way in High School, did it in college , and has been a great and under-rated professional. Now, he slipped up and the DUI issues did occur but he has learned from it and , in spite of his corrections, King Carl has led a concerted campaign to press him down and not pay him the raise he has earned thru nothing less than hard work and effort.

When he was drafted to KC I said that he had gone to NFL Heaven... a place with history, great fans, and a commitment to players and winning. Given the same opportunity to say it to him again I'd say they ARE history, the fans can be great but fickle, and the commitment that the Chiefs have to players is to keep them at the lowest price and win if that happens to occur. Wave goodbye to all the sacks and personality folks because the Cheaps have earned it again.

Adam, the problem I have is that top 5 or top 10 picks are rarely viewed as competition for the starting job. They're viewed as the starter of the team -- it's only a matter of "when." It's very difficult to visualize a $60 Million man on the bench.

And so, there are two situations where this move becomes a waste. #1 - if Croyle does awesome and you sit the $60 Million man on the bench; #2 - if Ryan is a bust and the Chiefs never replace him, because they give him 4 chances to blossom as an NFL QB. The first is important, because it implies that you're wasting money on a player who doesn't see the field, but it also implies that you used a pick on a backup QB when you could have landed a full-time defensive or offensive tackle. In the second situation, we've seen too many instances of QBs who start for several years not because of how they do on the field, but because of where they were drafted. Harrington and Boller played well past their usefulness. Leftwich started even after Garrard was the obviously superior QB. How many years did Houston refuse to draft/sign a QB because they were waiting for Carr's potential to finally develop? I realize there are risks to be taken, I just happen to think that if your goal is to promote a pure QB competition, why not just use your second round pick on a QB instead? Who knows, maybe the Chiefs get a pick at #17 and use it instead on Brian Brohm, who I believe is superior to Ryan anyway.

A QB outside of the first round is cheaper, has to legitimately win a starting job instead of having it handed to him, and is a legit enough threat to take the starting job that Croyle will feel compelled to perform or die. The Browns had it right last year. Remember, there was buzz that they'd take Brady Quinn because they badly needed a QB; they went with Joe Thomas instead and that worked out great for them.

I would argue that if Quinn was drafted at #3, Derek Anderson either would ahve been benched halfway through last season or he would not have been re-signed for 2008.

Concerning DT's, it is a fact that they rarely make a huge impact as a rookie individually for several reasons, including the fact that they are facing grown men in the NFL who bench 600 pounds, are readily doubled if need be (Dorsey and Ellis could split doubles in college no problem, will be a problem at the pro level). The impact that they make is on every other player on the defense. I think we are one stud DT away from being DOMINANT on D. If Tank can bring it his soph year and Boone keeps it together and we draft Dorsey or Ellis, the D will be sick even if we say goodbye to J.A. I am a very optimistic thinker by nature and if we can dominate the game defensively, the O will look a lot better than it has

OMG UPDATE*** ESPN just reported that JA and Minnesota were unable to come to an agreement. Also, KC and the Vikes couldn't come up with trade terms, either. Maybe he's getting the picture of what he's REALLY worth.

-cw

In a word, "NO." You ain't gonna rebuild your team around Tony G and a 30-year-old RB. Bye bye JA.

Most rushing DE are overrated, judged by stats not by doing you job and filling holes, its a glory posistion; thing of how many top 10 DE come out of college ever year and how many really good ones are in the NFL.. Allen is good for 1-2 sacks a game and atleast 1 30 yrd run to his side because hes so far up field. Great pass rusher, but there is a reason every team gained big yrds to his size... If you look at Tamba, he plays his holes and space allowing DJ to step into holes and light people up.

jon i actually agree with you on #46 i cant believe it

jon i actually agree with you on #46

I left out my point of that long post...If we develop or draft some DT's who are serious threats to get in the backfield (like Boone was on a few plays, and like Ellsi or Dorsey would be all the time), they won't be able to put the LG on Allen, and his numbers should increase

Go back and watch the game in Oakland from last season and you will see a perfect example of why Allen's stats dropped off in the second half of games. He abused the left side of their line in the first half, but later they were always double and sometimes TRIPLE teaming him (LT, LG, and a HB as a last ditch effort). They were able to do this because the center and RG could handle our two DT's one-on-one and the RT and TE could handle Hali. Now sometimes this strategy did get the raiders in trouble, as I remember one third down when they left 8 players (5 linemen, 2 TE's, and 1 HB) to block our pass rush, meaning they only had 2 receivers running routes. That's fine if we blitz, but we only rushed 4, meaning we had 7 guys covering their 2 guys. Needless to say, they didn't complete the third down, in fact, Culpepper was almost sacked...by Allen, after he beat the double team and ran right over I think Lamont Jordan.

Jon Y, why not bring in a top QB and really put the pressure on Croyle? That strategy seemed to have worked in both San Diego and Cleveland. That way Brodie could have his chance, but there would be pressure, and we could bring along Ryan slowly. And if Brodie played lights out, then we could trade one of the two eventually. You can't put all the eggs in the Brodie basket. You just can't. Besides, the Leftwich and Boeller comparisons are off--Ryan is far and away the best QB in this class, just look at any legitimate expert's big board.

Hey LandryHat-

CAPGUN!

You pile of garbage. Hey remember Leon Lett? How about T.O. "Dat's my quartaback...*sniff* that's my teammates." Way to let Eli whoop you last year. WTG. The curse of Yoko Romo will ruin Dallas for the next 10 years. F U. Beat it.

Zach, what's interesting about Croyle's college career was that his supporting cast was even worse in Bama. I believe he lost his star receiver his senior year and there were several injuries on the offensive line (remember, he got sacked something like 12 times in one game against Auburn--if you watch the video, not even Michael Vick could have escaped the majority of those sacks).

I don't know if Croyle's the answer. But I think drafting Matt Ryan is implying we're giving up on him. I don't like the idea of drafting Ryan because drafting a QB at that round because it all but guarantees Ryan will start in 2009, even if Croyle has a pro bowl season in 2008. And we've seen too many examples of great teams held back by lousy QBs who were only kept as starters because of "potential." In particular, you can't help but wonder if Byron Leftwich and Kyle Boller kept their teams away from the Super Bowl because their team invested their entire future in an ultimate flop.

I like the idea of using a second round pick on a QB. It gives Croyle a legit chance to keep his job but gives legitimate competition for Croyle to lose the job if he fails in 2008.

As for the injury history, definitely a legit concern. But in his defense, many of his injuries were freak accidents. He tore his ACL in two different legs, an injury that typically doesn't recur. Not that alleviates concerns, but I do think that if he bulks up a little this offseason (which I'm pretty sure he's doing) and is coached to not make stupid decisions like throwing your body to make a tackle, I dont' think he'll be nearly as injury prone as he has been in the past.

id be happy with anybody who is good that we can pick up in a later round..not 1st..and probably not 2nd..

Sorry I accidently used an old header, but I am sure once JA gets traded DJ will be back in it!

Josh Johnson is fine, but he is a project. He's a rich man's Casey Printers. Who is going to step in when Brodie has led us to a 3-8 start and then gets knocked out for the year? I do not believe in the kid. Sorry, everybody. I hope he proves me wrong, but I highly doubt he will.

And when The Landry Hat comes over and disagrees with you or calls you out, you know you're right. Mel Kiper once referred to him as "the prototypical delusional Cowboys fan." No joke.

im gonna say it one last time..im not a supporter or a crucifier..i we used a pick on him we might want to see if it was worth it..I LIKE JOSH JOHNSON..a late rounder who could do something

I still am at a loss for words when people say there is anything in pro football that is more crucial than the QB, regardless of what the rest of the roster looks like. No position even comes close to rivaling the importance of the QB position. The last three Super Bowl winners have had first rounders at QB, and the other one to win in the past five years was Tom Brady, the best late-round pick in the history of sports drafts. It all starts with the QB. Period.

And here's a Brodie point even his biggest, er, blindest supporters won't be able to refute: even if you believe in Croyle, do you believe he can stay healthy. If you answered yes, you might just be in denial. Just go read this: http://arrowheadaddict.com/2007/12/28/brodie-croyle-the-absentee/

thats what i was gettin at..i know who likes who here..i think we have more obvious needs..thats why we give bro cro a chance..you all know ive been sayin we should pick up j.johnson all along..damnit..i feel like im argue with the both of you over this one..lol..i told you who id like..and thats if JA is there or not..

Hey, by the way... Why did we take DJ off the top banner?? We need a REAL Defensive representative. Someone that we know that IS going to be on the team.

Nah... No way we take Matt Ryan at 5. And NO ADAM, I'm not saying that he sucks. But my god, if we lose Jared, we need to replace that presence. Granted Tamba has shown signs of being great, but he's not there just yet. And if BY CHANCE... Jared stays with us, I would STILL say that we take Dorsey or Ellis. Maybe even Gholston and move Tamba on the inside. I dont know. But if our D did so great last season and PRATICALLY won all 4 games for us, and with an improved offense and an upraded D... we can have a better chance at winning more games.

Croyle has a canon but when he throws he slashes his arm, which leads to bad accuracy. (Plus he looks like a high school QB in his pads, lol)

Also Adam is the pro-Matt Ryan guy, I would rather pick a DT with the 5th overall pick. Not saying I dont like Matt Ryan, but we need other pieces first.

If this holds true we should take Josh Johnson, looks like he started the past three years, and played a little as a freshman. He's got a career completion percentage of around 68%. He threw 43 td's and only one int in a blowout loss, obviously doesn't crack under pressure,and protects the ball. Football is football and the guy can obviously play. If we take a QB I say we take Johnson in the third round. That way we get O-line for Croyle, he gets his shot and if he can't cut it, we have another guy to plug in there, if Croyle is good, then we can trade either. Seems like a good situation, also as a back up Johnson could be used in a ton of ways by Chan with a little "slash" flair.

im not sayin i wouldnt love to see matty ice in a chiefs uni..but only if we get this trade done...i mean if we have an extra 1st..ill be hollerin at my tv to pick him up...

i dont know yet but i dont think its fair to judge a guy and say he isnt and never will be good starter..when we only seen half a season where had virtually no protection..the guy has a rifle but no time to load it..i wanna see him with a better line in front of him before i say if he can be our guy..thats all im sayin

Oh and since we are looking at completion percentage for the QBs in this draft I figured I would show you Croyles from college:

56.2%

Lowest out of everyone mentioned above....

So how is OL going to be better this season for Brodie? If he fails this year do we give him that excuse again?

Wow. I cannot believe this was even written. Now that Jared is looking to play for a winning team, he suddenly becomes OVERRATED? WOW. This is a low blow.
Why don't you tell us if he is overrated instead of tip toeing around the issue.

I could have told you he was overrated and I did a few months ago, and man was I attacked for being wrong and dumb.

Now look how quickly things have changed. Now, he is overrated.

look we agree on something finally

It is positive reinforcement at its best when I occasionally check back and see something intelligent written; couldn't have said it better myself Jon

I'm not sure how Adam can be so sure of B.C. inability to become a good QB when nobody knows...I don't know why I believe in the guy, but I do. The best QB's in the game have a rock solid supporting cast in every case, including a good offensive coaching staff who puts the players in the best situation to be successful. I can't recall an offensive situation worst than the one Croyle was given last season as Jon eloquently pointed out. Has anybody ever played a down of football offensively? If one guy screws up, the whole thing is screwed. I have always said, QB gets too much of the credit and too much of the blame.....

Adam, I don't know whether Brodie can/cannot succeed. What I do know is that you could not have possibly put him in a worse situation last year. His defense imploded and I think that was because Alfonso Boone ran out of gas and our interior defense combusted. He played without Larry Johnson, who has carried this team on his back for 2006 and the beginning of 2007. He had an atrocious playcaller in Solari calling the shots. And he had one of the bottom 5 offensive lines in the game protecting him.

It was Murphy's Law at his finest. The kid's working hard. I bet he's probably bulking up. He's got a great offensive coach to help him mature. Most importantly, he'll have LJ back and a vastly improved offensive line in front of him. You'll see that Gailey's offense will finally let Croyle be what he can feel comfortable being: a game manager instead of a game breaker. The offense, finally, won't revolve around Croyle... it will revolve around him not making mistakes and, every once in a while, going for the big play.

I don't know whether he'll succeed or fail. But I see no reason to give up on him yet. I would much rather the Chiefs instead use an early first day pick on him by drafting someone like Henne, Flacco, Brohm, Josh Johnson, or Booty, who will provide credible competition without sending Croyle the signal that we've given up on him.

thats what i was thinkin

If im was J.Allen and Minnesota & Tampa bay are offering similar contracts Im going to Florida not Canada(ALMOST).

We’re not quite sure where the contract talks stand but the Minneapolis Star Tribune says the trade talks are ongoing and that the Vikings have offered the Chiefs their first-round pick in this year’s draft (No. 17 overall) and one of their third-round selections (either pick No. 73 or pick No. 82).

That’s not necessarily good news for the Bucs. The Bucs first-round selection is No. 20 overall and they don’t have a spare third-round pick to offer like the Vikings.

If the reports of what the Vikings are offering are accurate the Bucs will probably have to sweeten the pot significantly with a young player or two to beat the Vikings in the trade portion of the deal. Then there’s the problem of signing Allen.

We’re not hearing much on what it is the Vikings are offering Allen but he’s believed to be seeking a deal similar to the six-year $70 million deal that Dwight Freeney of the Colts signed. The fact that he spent two full days in Minneapolis tells you the Vikings must be offering something in that range.

At the very least, though, it looks like the Bucs will get their shot at Allen. That’s better than having no shot at all.

this was from another article i just found..i think it was a tampa bay newspaper site..not sure

The Patriot RB who blew out his knee playing beach volleyball was Robert Edwards. (for R.P.)

Adam..this is probably the first time i have disagreed with you..we dont really know what bro cro can do with a good line in front of him..if he can get some protection..i mean all last yr he probably couldnt get comfortable enough in the backfield to get a good look at the line right in front of him let alone at his receivers..i think before we judge him we should get him a decent line and see what he can do..maybe your right..who knows till we give him a chance..

Jon, R.P. both of your arguments derail when you mention Brodie Croyle, who, mark my words, will never be a good NFL starter. EVER. I promise you. Please believe me--PLEASE BELIEVE ME! That goes for the Chiefs, too. Instead of our B.C., we need to go out and get the kid from B.C. That was an OK article on him and the other QBs, by the way, but I think Matty Ice is the next Eli. And I don't care what anybody says, that is definitely a good thing.

Plus, why draft Jake Long or Chris Williams to block for Croyle? That's like putting a silk hat on a pig, or a stunning nightdress on Rosie O'Donnell.

Jeremy,

Your Herm "post-draft" post is 100% Pure AWESOMENESS! I couldn't have done it better...nor could Hermie. We should track his post-draft comments to see how closely they match up.

Good post Jeremy...I have read that B.C. has been at the stadium everyday trying to get better and learn as much as he can to prepare himself for the season. I know we need an insurance policy on him, but drafting and putting Ryan in behind a makeshift offensive line (after he holds out forever a la JaMarcus) is the worst idea ever. Croyle has a cannon and with good blocking and an offensive coordinator who actually deserves the job could flourish in his first full year as a starter. I think we need to give the guy a chance to ball. John Elway would have sucked and been hurt too if he had Welbourn and Terry on the right side...

Before they drafted Lawrence Maroney, the Pats went to the trenches in the first round every year since 1990 except for Gleen, Bledsoe, and some guy who blew his knee out and never played again that has since eluded my memory. Why? The game is won and lost up front on both sides of the ball. I personally don't think we're that far away from being a really good team provided we can establish the line of scrimmage on offense (anybody who didn't repress the Jaguars game of last year, how awful was that to watch?)

If Ryan is the only +1 player left on the board when they pick and they can't trade out of the spot, then they will take him because they have spent countless hours and months making that board. To stray away from it too far is a complete slap in the face to the scouting department. If Croyle sucks despite being given every opportunity to succeed, then someone else shall be given the keys to the offense. I think it would be a mistake to take them away before he's given a chance (which would be the case if Ryan was drafted).

With that all said, I want a big body picked in the first two (O or D line). The CB's and WR's can be addressed later

Adam, I don't think this team is nearly as far away as we think. This team went 4-4 with LJ in the lineup last year, and that's with the absolute worst possible playcalling known to man. Gailey may be an uncertainty, but he's enough of a known commodity to know that we can't do worse than that.

In other words, if we made the playoffs in 2006 and won .500 of our "with LJ" games in 2007 with negative offense, I don't think it's ridiculous to believe we could be a bubble team by the end of this season.

I think the only thing holding this team back in 2007 isn't talent; it's depth.

Wow. Thats as long as one of my posts. Ok, about this poison pill thing. What exactly is the legal reasoning behind this? I can understand the two first rounds (present and next season). This is to creat a near unreachable hurdle. But 2 1st rounders after a draft?...after poisoning team gets a killer player that might vault it into a position to make those 1st rounders virtual 2nd rounders in the years to come? This inequity is something I would think that the comission would have worked out long ago. I dont see its point other than give a playoff team the ability to strip pro-bowl players from bargain basement teams. Its a serious inequity that should be adressed.

This was a funny read from Football Outsiders re Herm Edward's upcoming post draft interview.....

From Herm Edwards’ post-draft press conference:

“We play the game of football. We play to win the game of football. And to win the game of football, you need to run the football. You also need to pass the football.

“You need to both run and pass the football.

“And score.

“And to do that, you need to block for the guys who run and pass the football. It’s no secret that we lost 12 games last year. We ranked dead last in rushing yards per game — 78 yards. That’s not good. That’s not good. But you need to get over it. It’s called life.

“So, we drafted a guy who we think will help us be in a position to run and throw the football a little bit better. Some people are going to say we reached. OK, we reached. If getting a 6-6, 310-pound pure left tackle is a reach, then we reached. Were there some other guys we liked? We liked a lot of guys. It’s easy to like guys. We liked Jeff Otah. He’s a guy. Will he be as good as our guy? Uh, HELLO? We took our guy because he’s our guy. And we like him, and he’s going to help us where we need to be helped.

“That’s what football is.”
– Ben Riley

I am sorry, but I had to put this up!:

College stats don't lie
By David Lewin
Football Outsiders.com
(Archive)
Updated: April 17, 2008, 9:38 AM ET

There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.

Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it.

As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback.

However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith.

Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds.

What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft.

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate)

A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey.

Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it.

Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate)

The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games.

Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong.

Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus.

Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate)

Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm.

Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional.

David Lewin is a former Division III college quarterback and co-author of the upcoming Pro Football Prospectus 2008.

Jared is leaving Min without a contract. Off to Tampa then to wherever possibly to create more leverage for us! A deal will get done before the draft! I say we will be just fine.

Gholston = Mike Mamula!!!!!!! Remember these words!

I'm a Chiefs fan living here in Minnesota so I've seen every Vikings game for the past nine years. You don't want McKinnie. He's a turnstile to the QB (just like Jordan Black was). If I had to take a Vikings lineman I'd take Ryan Cook. He's playing guard right now but was a center in college. Since Wiegmann is gone now you need some competition for Niswanger.

also what if we got a 1 a 3 and mckinnie then JLONG fell to us? i know i know dreaming BIG now but its possible. right now it seems as though all we have is to DREAM