Reader Post: Merlinnj – Part 2: Free Agency And The Draft
"Here’s another solid post by one of our favorite readers, Merlinnj…"
To continue the discussion, let’s take a look at free agency and the draft for the Chiefs. Previously we talked about the not signing high priced, aging vets when you are a 4-12 team. What players do you sign? Well, you look at younger players with talent that fit your system. These players can be hard to identify and many teams will not give them up easy. Chances are, they will come from teams changing systems and player X may not fit the new system. A couple of our signings fit this mold (Alabi and Williams). Will they work out? Who knows, but what you want to do, to borrow a phrase from Herm, is to create competition. Competition in most positions is a plus. Still, you need some veteran leadership as I talked about in my last post.
OK, on to the draft. As a kid, I fell in love with the draft. Not to bore anyone, but these were the days when the draft was not on TV and the second day was held on Monday. The first draft I can remember tracking was when we took Art Still over Ross Browner. We made the right choice there, but wiffed badly on Sylvester Hicks later on.
The big debate in draftnik circles is over philosophy. Do you draft the best player available or draft to need? Well, either approach, if followed strictly is asinine. Hypothetically speaking, say you have John Elway 4 years into his career and Peyton Manning is available. Do you pick him because he is the best available athlete over Reggie White when you have a glaring hole at DE? Of course you do not. You grab Reggie and be happy you got a HOF DE. If you have a glaring need at DE, but the best player there is a third round talent and you are in the first round, do you take that DE? Of course not. You grab one of the top 2-3 guys on your board, wherever your need is greater. Funny, that sounds like a synthesis of the two philosophies. That is generally what teams really do. They may put out a lot of noise, saying things like “well, we followed our board, and player X was the top player available.” Since we do not see their board, we can not dispute it. However, if drafting was as simple as that, why is there discussion in the draft room? Simple, there is discussion because people do not follow the board to the letter.
The board is a good guide, not an absolute rule. Teams pretty much follow it, but “pretty much” has wiggle room. What you want to try to do is to get value for each pick. This can be hard, because players do not stack up neatly with nice simple gradations with each player just slightly less valuable than the one before him. What you have is clusters and levels. Generally, you have blue chip players, then a level below that, and below that, so one and so on. However, not all 9.2 rated players are considered equal. In essence, there are 3 types of players that tend to jump above others in ratings and it all revolves around the QB. They are, in order: Be the QB, Kill the QB, Protect the QB. The QB position, the defensive front seven that can rush the passer (generally DE’s and OLB’s) and the left tackle fly highest on draft boards. A great pass rush covers a world of sins downfield.
How do we approach pick #5 in the draft? Well, we are nearing the end of the blue chip level. Drafting this high is high stakes, especially with the money involved today. Draft an Akili Smith, and you pay, and pay, and pay. What you really want and need to do is it to take advantage of this opportunity and hit a home run, like we did with Derrick Thomas. Right now, the blue chip level seems to be comprised, in no particular order, of Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey (with injury questions), Jake Long, Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis and Run DMC. Most of us here agree that if Jake Long is available, we grab him and count our blessings. The dilemma comes if he is not available. Do you take a Dorsey, Ellis or Gholston because they are rated higher than your next level of player like a Ryan Clady? Well, you try not to, you try to trade down.
However, with the money involved in signing high draft picks, finding trading partners is so hard. If we see Jake Long go in the first 3 picks, I would bet that CP will be on the phone, and I think his first call would be to those master cheaters, the New England Patriots. I would not mind dropping down to #7 and taking Clady, but a trade has to work both ways. Many trade scenarios get floated, this is one I can see happening. NE likes Gholston and they know the Jets will take him if he is there at #6. If Gholston is available at #5 (and that is an IF) I can see this trade: Chiefs trade pick #5 and a 5th round pick to NE for pick #7 and pick #70 ( that is a high round 3 pick from Oakland, originally). Now, NE has a lot of holes to fill in the linebacker core and at CB. So, they may not be willing to pull the trigger. However, I do think this has possibilities. If I didn’t see value in a trade, I would sit and take Clady at #5. To me, left tackle is a critical position and Clady has Pro Bowl potential. It is hard to get that level of player at that position later on. Yes, I am aware of Tony Ugoh. Folks could argue for Dorsey or Ellis there and have a very legitimate case to make. I do not see Matt Ryan as a franchise QB, so I would not even look at him.
As you get deeper in the draft, projections get harder. Who is available can be a real crapshoot. I get a kick out of people who are projecting 4th, 5th round picks and beyond. In round 2, I am open to either the best O-lineman or CB available assuming the value is there, of course. I would not have a problem taking a second OT. The draft is deep at OT, and getting a strong RT in round two could be very good for us. The next rounds (3 & 4) I would like us to either get that second O-lineman or CB depending on what we did in round 2. After that, you are really looking for players that can come in and help you. We have multiple picks, so I could see a 3rd O-lineman, a 2nd CB, FB, blocking TE, WR, K in some order. Of course, our picks will probably not be exactly that.
The key here is patience. Good NFL teams are not built overnight. I know the Chiefs’ brass can not admit it, but 2008 is a rebuilding year. Our chances of contending are very small. I do not have a problem with that. What I want to see is the a solid foundation on both sides of the ball that will enable us to contend for years. I think that is where we are heading.