The Numbers Game – What Do We Know About Bowe?

I wouldn’t bet on it in Vegas or anything. Don’t put your mortgage on it, don’t deplete the kids’ college savings fund, and definitely don’t try to pawn off your entire fantasy football roster to get in on it.

But if Monday, September 24^th’s office water cooler discussion revolves around the breakout game that Dwayne Bowe had the day before against the Minnesota Vikings, just remember one thing; I told ya so.

Doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch, of course. At the end of the 2006 regular season, Minnesota had been passed on more than cafeteria-manufactured, reheated Salisbury steak, for over 3,800 yards. More teams attempted to pass on them per game (37.4) than any other team in the NFL, and one of their best interception threats, a certain Napoleon Harris, is gracing the Red and Gold with his presence this season.

In other words, they sucked. Bad.

But history also points to Bowe experiencing some success at this point in the season.

In the last 10 seasons, 1^st round wide receivers have had some of their best games in week 3. Reidel Anthony, Torry Holt, Troy Edwards, Sylvester Morris, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Ashley Lelie, Andre Johnson, Bryant Johnson, Roy Williams, Troy Williamson, Matt Jones, and Santonio Holmes all experienced Week 3 performances greater than their first two games combined. Others, such as Randy Moss, Peter Warrick, Donte’ Stallworth, and Charles Rogers had solid games in their third time around, as well. The only week, statistically, that 1^st round receivers did better was in week 14, as rookies were fast approaching the end of their first term in the Big Show.

As a whole, 1^st round WRs had decent rookie years, averaging about 35 receptions for 485.6 yards and 3 TDs over 14 games. Granted these vary tremendously – from the monster debut of Randy Moss to the 2-season-delayed first receptions of Yatil Green – but factoring out the 3 best and worst from the bunch, the stats are almost identical.

Obviously, there are lots of factors in production – offensive line stability, quarterback experience, a solid running game to support and air attack –but to suggest that Bowe, a guy who nearly topped 1,000 yards receiving his senior year, would be poised to impress Arrowhead Stadium in late September isn’t a far reach at all. As the weeks of humid training camp, late preseason workouts, and valuable regular-season practices drift by, the offense will inevitably begin to gel, and the decision to draft this star from Louisiana State University will look like a pretty good call.

Maybe not an instant jackpot, but definitely a pretty good call.

• Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Weekly.com
• Draft Results courtesy of NFL.com

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