Training Camp: AFC West Outlook

Here is how I’m calling the AFC West division as of right now:

1. San Diego Chargers
   
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Denver Broncos
   
4. Oakland Raiders

I know my rankings probably shock some of you a bit, but that’s just the way I’m seeing it. I honestly think that — barring that Dwayne Bowe and Larry Johnson both sign — we had the best offseason in the division.

The Raiders obviously had a great offseason as well. JaMarcus Russell could be a better Daunte Culpepper, and the Raidahs’ backfield is strong now with FB Justin Griffith leading the way for a trio of adequate backs — Dominic Rhodes, Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan. Believe it or not, I even actually like the Donovin Darius, Mike Williams and Michael Bush additions. Still, the Raiders were so far behind the rest of the division already that it will take another year or two to catch up. I really think that Lane Kiffin will turn things around. After hiring a couple of idiot coaches in a row, Al Davis may have finally hit the jackpot.

The Broncos’ offseason has been filled with tragedy. Additionally, I don’t think the arrivals of Brandon Stokley, Dré Bly, Travis Henry and Co. impressed anybody all that much. Big things are expected from Henry, but he flopped in Tennessee before his ’06 revival. He also was pushed out of Buffalo in favor of Willis McGahee before becoming a Titan. The other issue with Henry is that he’s somewhat injury prone. The Donks probably had the second best draft class, but I just don’t see them being any better than last year. In fact, after losing Al Wilson, the heart and soul of the defense, and suffering the tragedies, I see them being worse. I’m not even sure Shanahan’s crew will end up finishing at .500.

As for the Chargers, yeah, the Bolts are pretty stockpiled. Still, I think the loss of Donnie Edwards stings. Plus, Norv Turner is a major downgrade from Marty, and I’m not sold on Craig Davis, Vincent Jackson and the rest of the receivers. Gates, Merriman, Rivers and Tomlinson are good enough to make up for a lot, but I can’t imagine this team winning 14 games again. I just don’t see it happening. The Chargers are still likely good enough to win the division, but we will push them, especially late in the season.

In order for the Chiefs to challenge the Chargers and make a playoff push, the following must happen:

• The Chiefs must win all three AFC West games at Arrowhead Stadium
• The Chiefs must sweep Oakland, which will likely be considerably more difficult than in the past
• It would be huge if the Chiefs could steal one at either Denver or San Diego (didn’t need to last year, but it always helps)
• All of our division rivals have good defenses, so we must protect the ball in each of these contests, both home and away

Right now, I’m making these evaluations thinking that Priest Holmes will not be a factor during the ’07 season. If he ends up playing well and staying healthy during the preseason, then I may have to reevaluate the division.

Look out for a bunch of more stuff by the end of the day, including The COAT Final Four announcement and updates on contract negotiations and training camp.

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