ChiefStock: Bustology picks Justin Harrell
Ted Kluck’s recent special to ESPN’s Page 2, “Draft risk study: Wrapping it up,” shows that maybe the Kansas City Chiefs would be better off not selecting a receiver in the first-round of Saturday’s NFL Draft. In fact, what I’ve taken away from the study is that defensive tackle — more specifically Tennessee DT Justin Harrell — might indeed be the way to go.
DTs have a “first-round bust percentage” of only 33%, markedly lower than what I expected. Granted, corners and offensive lineman have slightly better percentages, but DTs have the second-best “first-round Pro Bowl percentage” — 40% . First-round CBs have the worst PBP, while O-lineman and WRs have the second and third worst, respectively. First-round WRs have a bust percentage of 45%. Do keep in mind that DTs have been selected a little less often than any of these other positions.
Still, I would’ve guessed that the bust percentage of DTs would have been right there at the top with the quarterbacks. As a Chiefs fan, it at least feels like they bust often. In reality, outside of the safety position, easily the safest first-round proposition, DTs are just about the next-safest choice. Linebackers are also a little safer, but like the safety position, LB isn’t a position of need for the Chiefs.
This study only reaffirms my belief that the Chiefs would be smart to draft DT Justin Harrell. Yes, I still like Dwayne Jarrett, but history shows that he has a 50-50 chance of ending up a bust. Harrell’s odds are more like 33.3-66.6, not quite as big of a gamble according to the numbers.
According to the study, CBs Aaron Ross and Chris Houston, G Ben Grubbs, and OTs Joe Staley and Tony Ugoh would probably be the other “safe” first-round picks for the Chiefs this year.
Here are some recent Justin Harrell links:
- 49ers.com informs us that Harrell is a “tough sucker” who rocks cubic zirconium. Let’s just hope he’s not the equivalent of football cubic zirconium if the Chiefs do pick him.
- The AP’s mock draft has Harrell going 31st to Da Bears, which means he would be on the board when King Carl and Co. step up to the plate. The mock has us taking Eric Wright.
- Yahoo’s just-released final mock draft actually has us picking Harrell, even though Marshawn Lynch is mentioned as a possibility.
- Warpaint Illustrated debates over picking Harrell. They feel that he could be a bit of a reach, but worthy of a first-round selection because he’s a “coachable” “space-eater” with a Tamba-esque demeanor. And remember, just because a guy is a “reach” on Saturday does not mean that he’ll still be viewed as a “reach” one year from now.
Other Justin Harrell resources:
- NFLDraftScout.com Profile
- Draft Countdown Profile – Points out the tradition of great Volunteer DTs.
- Scout.com Profile
- ESPN Scouts Inc. Bio – If you aren’t an Insider, then you won’t be able to read this, but I’ll break it down… Harrell grades out at 91, behind only Amobi Okoye and Alan Branch. The next best DT, Harrell’s college teammate Turk McBride (gotta love that name!), is only an 82. Scout Inc.’s Todd McShay also picks Harrell in his latest mock.
- ESPN Video – “NFL Mock Draf: Justin Harrell”
My Top 10 Reasons to Pick Justin Harrell:
- 10. Has heart — he was born on Valentine’s Day.
- 9. Toughness. How many guys suit up the week after tearing their biceps.
- 8. There is a lack of depth at the DT position, and Harrell will likely be the last elite DT on the board.
- 7. Sports cubic zirconium, which proves that he’s not just all about the Benjamins like a certain first-round DT we know.
- 6. Massive — nearly 6′5″, 315 lbs.
- 5. Has all the requisite Herm-tangibles.
- 4. Nicknamed “Big Sweet.”
- 3. Doesn’t have character issues, unlike fellow highly touted DT prospects Alan Branch, Marcus Thomas and Tank Tyler.
- 2. Bustology indicates he won’t be a flop.
- 1. Like Pro Bowl DT John Henderson he’s a Volunteer, not a Tarheel. This is our chance to make up for passing on Henderson years ago.
A DT is the way to go,
I have almost never wavered from that this year.
And Harrell is at least the first tackle to be drafted as opposed to us drafting a teams second DT.
April 25th, 2007 at 10:38 pmAs when we did,… when we followed San Diego a few years back, in the draft.
ps I cant believe all the people nation wide who think we’ll trade LJ…it makes me laugh so damned hard…rotflol
April 25th, 2007 at 10:39 pmJust a bunch of wishful-thinking fans and desperate-for-a-story NFL writers if you ask me. L.J. is the face of the franchise. Did Carl trade D.T.? No. Did Carl trade Tony G? No.
The two biggest things with Carl are his ego and that he wants to fill the seats. L.J. has been his best pick in forever, and he is also the Chiefs best player hands down.
That being said, L.J. isn’t going anywhere. Remember a few months back when the same pundits and fans were speculating Tony G’s departure? L.J. is here to stay.
April 25th, 2007 at 11:35 pmAnd we’ll see if the Chiefs will draft a defensive tackle or not. It really just depends on how the chips fall before it’s time for Carl to phone in his pick.
April 25th, 2007 at 11:36 pmIt seems like Harrell has had a lot of injury issues beyond the bicep problem last year. Have you checked these out?
April 26th, 2007 at 7:32 amYes besides that he has injured his ankle a few times (sound like bad sprains to me). He also had a minor leg surgery (not sure what that means) in 2004 midway through spring practice but played that fall.
I guess he does have some durability issues just like Adrian Petersen and others. Good thing is none of them have been major surgerys like a knee.
April 26th, 2007 at 9:12 amHere is something else I found on him:
“However, his rehab went extremely well and he’s not expected to have any lingering affects from the injury … he has the potential to develop into a very good two-down starter in the NFL.”
April 26th, 2007 at 9:41 am[...] CheifStock: Bustology picks Justin Harrell [...]
May 15th, 2007 at 1:59 pm